I don’t know about you, but these market swings are definitely making me dizzy! Tariffs, inflation, the reemergence of recession fears—are all serving to rattle investors.

This morning’s inflation report, however, did push us into somewhat positive territory, with February’s CPI rising 0.2% (2.8%, annually), a bit less than the 0.3% forecast and considerably better than the 0.5% rise in January.

Also, on the good news front, mortgage rates have finally begun to decline, with the average 30-year interest rate now at 6.72%.

The great rebalancing is unfolding as we expected with the S&P 500 struggling while other global markets are gaining traction. The performance gap between U.S. and international equities so far this year is the largest since 2017.

With that in mind, today we add a new recommendation outside U.S. borders - albeit a company whose bread and butter is the U.S. market. It’s the best of both worlds.

Details inside.

This is the worst market we’ve seen in a while. And the ugliness could last a while.

Tariff talk is all the rage. The economy is slowing. Nobody is sure about inflation or interest rates. It all adds uncertainty. The market had been riding high for more than two years. A comeuppance has arrived. How long will it last and how deep will it be?

During times of maximum uncertainty like this, healthcare stocks are a great place to be. That was the topic of last month’s exquisitely crafted issue. But there is another industry with both defensive and growth characteristics that’s ideal for uncertain times – garbage.

We live in the garbage capital of the world. This country generated 292 million tons of waste in 2018, up from 251 tons in 2012, and nearly double the waste produced in 1980. That’s enough waste to produce a pile long enough to go to the moon and back – 29 times. And that’s every single year. Waste services are big business. In 2023, the U.S. waste management services industry generated $145 billion in revenue. That was up from $137 billion the prior year and that number is likely to keep rising.

Garbage will continue to pile up regardless of where interest rates go, the level of economic growth, or the fallout from tariffs. The market could soar, or the world could go to Hell in a handbag. Either way my wife will nag me every week to take out the garbage.

Bank on a company with certain earnings and revenue in uncertain times. Defensive stocks tend to outperform during and after volatile markets. In this issue, I highlight a company that is the unquestioned leader in waste services. The stock has a strong track record which could get even better in the years ahead.

The selling pressures of the past two weeks continued last week as traders grappled with tariff concerns, a possibly slowing economy, and growth stocks again falling dramatically. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 3.1%, the Dow had fallen 2.4%, and the Nasdaq had dropped another 3.5%. The selling only worsened on Monday, with all three indexes down more than 2%.

What we’ve seen since the February 19 top in growth stocks has basically been a rolling crash, with most every leading stock from 2024 breaking its intermediate-term uptrend. Now, short-term, we do think things are finally getting hairy—recession fears and tariff headlines are making the rounds even as we are seeing a few near-term rays of light (the number of stocks hitting new lows is actually drying up a bit). That might be a reason to hold a some smaller positions at a profit, but overall, we remain clearly defensive. Our Market Monitor is now at a level 3, though we’re most interested in seeing how strong and persistent any bounce is once it begins.

This week’s list has names from all over the map, though medical and foreign stocks certainly dominate the list. Our Top Pick is a mid-cap biotech that has booming sales and earnings, and the stock is strong.

The market is melting down with no end in sight. The question is, does this more closely resemble the July/August carry trade/weak jobs report selling of last year, when the major indexes fell an almost identical amount to what they have in the past three weeks? Or are we hurtling toward the end of the 28-month bull market? We may know the answer soon, as the all-important February inflation prints are released later this week.

In the meantime, we’re playing plenty of defense in today’s issue, selling out of six of our positions that have completely broken down, and adding shares of a low-risk gold miner that’s been a favorite of Cabot Explorer Chief Analyst Carl Delfeld for some time.

Details inside.

The selling pressures of the past two weeks continued last week as traders grappled with tariff concerns, a possibly slowing economy, and growth stocks again falling dramatically. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 3.1%, the Dow had fallen 2.4%, and the Nasdaq had dropped another 3.5%.

The selling pressures of the past two weeks continued last week as traders grappled with tariff concerns, a possibly slowing economy, and growth stocks again falling dramatically. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 3.1%, the Dow had fallen 2.4%, and the Nasdaq had dropped another 3.5%.

After a huge run and a choppy two-month stretch, the sellers have taken control and are crushing most stocks, especially growth titles, many of which broken down and--for the big winners of last year--are flashing abnormal action. With our Cabot Tides, Two-Second Indicator and Aggression Index firmly negative, we’re mostly on the sideline and are content to wait things out until the next uptrend gets underway.

Encouragingly, though, there are still a good number of fresher growth stocks (got going in the last two or three months) that are taking the selling in stride; upside will be limited for now, of course, but tonight we have an expanded watch list of names that could be new leaders down the road. Eventually, the sun will shine again, but for now it’s best to focus mostly on capital preservation, which will allow us to make that much more money when the bulls are back.

Today’s addition is a profitable small-cap MedTech company specializing in products to treat peripheral nerve injuries.

Management has a number of growth-oriented irons in the fire. And I think the company could be an attractive acquisition target.

While the sock has been relatively stable in this increasingly volatile market, we’ll still start with a half-sized position, just in case.

U.S. markets are in a tailspin, and previously hard-charging growth stocks are leading the slide. But two asset classes that have often been overlooked in recent years are off to very good starts in 2025: value stocks and European stocks. Having just “retired” a European value stock that reached our price target in last week’s update, today we add a Dutch-based mid-cap with an almost identical profile – but at a time when undervalued European stocks are getting treated like U.S. growth stocks.

Details inside.

For the second straight week growth stocks got hit hard, which weighed on the Nasdaq. Though interestingly, as money rotated out of the 2024 leaders, it raced into slow and steady stocks that have been left behind in years past. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1%, the Dow had gained 1%, and the Nasdaq had fallen 3.5%.

At the index level, small-cap performance has been unremarkable (though stable) for a while, but under the hood, there continue to be plenty of performing names, and we’ve been fortunate enough to be in a number of them.

That said, there’s been some shifting of the deck this week with a few growthy stocks (TMDX, RXST) taking a bit of a hit. On the flip side, continued performance from the likes of ENVX and new addition (from June) AORT is very nice to see.

Explorer stocks put in a solid performance this week as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was on Capitol Hill for two days of testimony. His remarks were parsed as if he were an oracle, but the takeaway seems that we are moving towards a rate cut dependent on labor markets cooling off a bit more.

I really don’t like paying too much attention to macro issues like interest rates and would rather focus on new ideas that most investors are not following closely. Right now, in a market so dependent on a small number of leading stocks, you can reduce your portfolio’s overall risk profile by adding some stocks in countries and sectors where expectations and downside risk are low.

If it feels like value stocks are missing the bull market party this year, take comfort in knowing they’re not alone.

Thanks to the Magnificent Seven and a few other mega-cap tech stocks and red-hot artificial intelligence plays, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have posted very strong returns through the first half of 2024, up 17.6% and 24.8%, respectively. But most other indexes and funds have had very average years. The Dow is up a mere 4.2%. The Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks) is up 0.8%. And the Equal Weight S&P 500 index is up 3.7% and is well off its late-March peak.

Old-school value managers like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett used to have a funny way of describing their investing style.

They said value stocks were like cigar butts on the sidewalk that had a few puffs left in them.

I’d like to offer an updated version of this metaphor. I think cannabis stocks have a few more puffs left in them between now and the end of the year.

Cannabis names are thoroughly unloved and abandoned once again.

This market rally keeps forging on no matter what. Technology cooled off but, no problem, other sectors are picking up the slack.

Interest rates have likely peaked. The chances of a Fed rate cut before the end of the year have increased. And the economy is still solid. Sectors rotate, headlines come and go, but as long as the main ingredients of future lower rates and a still-decent economy prevail, the market should be good.

Earnings season is over, so there were no companies that reported earnings this past week. However, the next earnings season is just around the corner, starting with Mattel (MAT) on July 23^rd.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The evidence remains mostly the same, with trendless, choppy action among the vast majority of stocks and sectors out there—we’re still overall bullish (especially longer-term), but for now, less seems to be more when it comes to taking action. In the Model Portfolio, we cut bait with Pulte (PHM) earlier this week as the stock broke down, leaving us with 37% in cash, and tonight we’re placing On Holding (ONON) on Hold, as the stock has turned weak. We are seeing more setups out there, so if the buyers can show up, we’ll likely put at least a little money to work, but today we’ll sit tight and see what comes after the holiday.

Well, the results are in for the first half of the year. And they’re very good. The S&P 500 soared an impressive 14.5% in the first six months of 2024. That’s a 29% annual pace. And it follows a 22% market return in 2023.

But I believe it is unlikely that the S&P will finish the year up 29%. That would be an epic year, but there are still a lot of challenges, like interest rates near the highest level in two decades. That means market returns must at least flatten out somewhat going forward. It’s also true that the technology rally has petered out in the last few weeks.

The market continues to hover near the all-time high. The S&P 500 finished the first half of the year up 14.5%. That’s a not-too-shabby 29% annual pace.

As I mentioned earlier, I believe it is unlikely that the S&P will finish the year up 29%. That means market returns must at least flatten out somewhat going forward. It’s also true that the technology rally has petered out in the last few weeks.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) acknowledged disappointing quarterly results on Thursday, cutting its full-year financial guidance to a range of $2.80 a share to $2.95 a share, down from previous expectations of $3.20 a share to $3.35, and well off analyst estimates of $3.21. CEO Tim Wentworth discussed plans that could lead to the closure of thousands of its U.S. pharmacies as the company’s retail business continues to struggle. “We are at a point where the current pharmacy model is not sustainable, and the challenges in our operating environment require we approach the market differently,” Wentworth said, also noting that a quarter of the stores are not contributing to operating income. While there were positives – a well-performing international business and a growing U.S. healthcare segment for instance – future performance will heavily rely on the company’s shift toward greater efficiency.

Just a quick housekeeping note. With the 4^th of July holiday next Thursday, I’m going to send out the July Issue one day earlier than normal. Look for it next Wednesday, July 3.

As the second quarter comes to a close, a quick look at the performance of small caps relative to large caps shows just how important stock picking has been this year, and especially once you step away from the influence of the Magnificent 7, which now make up almost 32% of the S&P 500.

Please note that next Thursday is July 4^th and therefore there will not be a Cabot Explorer issue though I will send out an alert if there is any significant news on our stocks.

For Explorer stocks this week, Neo Performance (NOPMF) shares were up 12%, and Super Micro (SMCI) gave back half of last week’s 20% gain.

The dollar rose to its highest level since last year as the Federal Reserve breaks with other central banks by keeping interest rates elevated, giving global investors an incentive to move cash to the U.S. to capture higher bond yields.

We started the process of closing out a few of our Dogs and Small Dogs of the Dow positions last week and will close the remaining over the next day or so. Once that is complete, we simply wait until the first week of 2024 to initiate our new Dogs and Small Dogs positions (and several others across various portfolios).

Okay, it’s that time of year. We are going to close out a few of our Dogs and Small Dogs of the Dow positions today and early next week. Once that is complete, we simply wait until the first week of 2024 to initiate our new Dogs and Small Dogs positions (and several others across various portfolios).

I wanted to repeat, one last time, what was stated in the alert yesterday.

We have several positions that need to be rolled to higher strikes. The deltas of our LEAPS contract and short calls are at parity, so I want to buy back my short calls and sell more further out in duration and at a higher strike price.

We have several positions that need to be rolled to higher strikes. The deltas of our LEAPS contract and short calls are at parity, so I want to buy back my short calls and sell more further out in duration and at a higher strike price.

We’ve managed to lock in a return of 36.1% in BITO. Not many can say they’ve made money in BITO since the beginning of June 2022. Just another reason why more and more individual investors are flocking to the tried-and-true income wheel approach.

Docebo (DCBO) Tender Offer Thoughts

There is little to no value left in our XLU December 15, 2023, 56 puts. As a result, I’m going to buy them back, lock in profits and immediately sell more premium. I’ll be doing the same in a few other positions as we move throughout the week.

Before I get to our trade in TTE, I just wanted to remind everyone that, per our strategy guidelines, we will be exiting our Dogs and Small Dogs positions over the next two weeks, prior to the December 29, 2023 expiration cycle. I’ll be reentering the new Dogs and Small positions at the onset of 2024. Moreover, I plan to discuss a new variation on how to approach the Dogs.

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.