First off, this being our last issue of the year, all of us at Cabot wish you and yours a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year. We’ll be back with a regular update next Thursday after the calendar flips.

As for the market, it’s been a fantastic year, with leading growth titles letting loose on the upside, and we’re happy to have made hay while the sun is shining—the year isn’t quite done but it’s looking like our second-best returns of the past 18 years, when I took over. We’re glad to have done right by you.

That said, we always deal with the here and now, so we’re riding into year-end in a cautious stance, as growth stocks have wobbled and our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicators are waving yellow flags. We’re definitely flexible, as some of the recent selling may have cleared the decks for another leg up, but given the evidence, we want to see strength first before embarking on another major buying spree. In this issue, we highlight more than a few names we could jump into if things go well, while sharing more details on our remaining stocks and the recent action.

Cannabis stocks are set to close out the year with a punishing 14% decline. Cannabis investors need help from anywhere they can get it.

It looks like it could come from an unusual place in 2025. The future of the cannabis industry is now in the hands of President-elect Donald Trump.

If anyone told me a few years ago this would be the case, I might have asked them what they are smoking.

However, the reality is that during his presidential campaign, Trump endorsed all three of the main reforms that would legitimize the industry and boost cannabis share prices: Rescheduling, bank reform known as SAFER banking, and legalization of recreational use. Trump endorsed the first two outright. He implicitly endorsed legal rec-use because he supported the Florida referendum which would have made this change. At the very least, he has openly endorsed decriminalization.

First and foremost, this is our last issue of 2024—next Tuesday is one of our two weeks off all year—so we want to wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a healthy and prosperous New Year.

Also, before we dive into this week’s idea I wanted to address our December expiration cycle trades. Both NCLH and KD stocks finished above their strike prices, which means we walked away from those trades with our full profits.

First and foremost, this is our last issue of 2024—next Monday is one of our two weeks off all year—so we want to wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a healthy and prosperous New Year. We’ll be back at it with a fresh Top Ten issue on January 6.

As for the market, things finished up with a nice rally last Friday, but that doesn’t undo the action of the prior couple of weeks as a whole, which saw many leaders take hits and many major indexes crack their intermediate-term uptrends. To be clear, we remain flexible, and if the buyers pounce on the recent weakness for a few days, we think there will be lots of “resumption” patterns among individual stocks. Still, given the near- and intermediate-term selling we’ve seen, we want to see buyers show up in a meaningful way first before putting a bunch of money back to work. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 5.

This week’s list is once again very growth-y, which we do find encouraging. Our Top Pick showed exceptional power in November and has now rested for three weeks, offering up a solid entry point, though we advise starting small given the environment.

Jerome Powell went full Grinch last week, sparking a brief market selloff after saying the Fed would cut rates at a slower pace than expected in 2025. Prior to that, there were some obvious cracks beneath the market’s surface, so Powell’s downer of a press conference served more to expand the selling than cause it. But the nice rebound in the last two trading days shows the bulls are still mostly in charge, which means it’s a good time to add a mid-cap water stock that Tyler Laundon just introduced to his Cabot Early Opportunities audience.

Details inside. Happy Holidays!

The breadth worries that had so many traders on edge finally reared their ugly head and took a bite out of the market as the indexes took a big hit on Wednesday. By week’s end things had improved a touch, but still the S&P 500 fell 2.45%, the Dow lost 2.54%, and the Nasdaq declined by 2.71% last week.

The breadth worries that had so many traders on edge finally reared their ugly head and took a bite out of the market as the indexes took a big hit on Wednesday. By week’s end things had improved a touch, but still the S&P 500 fell 2.45%, the Dow lost 2.54%, and the Nasdaq declined by 2.71% last week.

As we head into the end of the year, markets have paused though are still bullish. A little bit of worry is a sign of a healthy market and some of the pullback is no doubt taking profits for tax reasons.

The budget showdown in Washington, which needs to be settled by Saturday, is not helpful.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point yesterday and in a preemptive move, suggested only two more reductions next year. This is a signal that interest rates will remain somewhat elevated as inflation that has come down significantly remains a stubborn trend.

We wrap up a fruitful year with a December Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities highlighting five names spanning everything from bottled water to social media to bitcoin mining.

I like the diversity of this Issue, which has something for everyone.

Many are surprised to learn that the concept of telehealth wasn’t a direct result of the Covid pandemic in 2020. Indeed, the practice of online consultations between patients and medical personnel has been practiced for over 20 years, and this month’s featured company is arguably the first one to bring it to global prominence.

By most measures, 2025 looks pretty good for stocks.

The Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that should last for the next two years. Historically, stocks do well when the Fed is cutting rates and there is no recession. And the economy has been solid. This bull market is just 25 months old and has returned 65%. Bull markets usually don’t just run out of gas after two years. In fact, the average bull market has lasted 50 months and returned 152%.

But stocks are expensive. The S&P currently sells at 22.3 times forward earnings compared to an average of 16 times over the last twenty years. The market returned 26% in 2023 and about 28% this year with two weeks to go. It might be tough for stocks to deliver another consecutive year of 20%-plus returns.

It may be that a lot of the easy upside is behind us. Stocks can still perform well, but they’ll probably have to earn it in 2025.

In this issue, I highlight a stock that is poised for a strong earnings rebound in 2025. It is a stock that bounces a lot between the highs and lows. And it is currently well below the high. It is also one of the best healthcare companies on the market at a time when the population is older than ever before and aging at warp speed.

For the second straight week, the leading indexes went in vastly different directions as the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow lost 1.9%, and the Nasdaq gained 1%.

Cannabis stocks look buyable in the current weakness.

Cannabis stocks are always buyable when they are down, but there are potential near-term catalysts on the horizon. That is the case now. There are three to expect over the next few months, and possibly as soon as the middle of May.

The market has shown some renewed strength over the past several days, particularly among interest rate-sensitive stocks. The Fed met last week, and the market dug this month’s vague insinuations.

The rally sputtered in April after sticky inflation soured the falling interest rate narrative. But last week the Fed Chairman indicated that the next Fed Funds rate move would most likely be a cut and not a raise. Although a hike wasn’t expected, investors like hearing the Fed say it. The statement also combines with recent news of weaker economic growth and a slowing job market.

Gannett (GCI) reported after the bell yesterday, beating on revenue but missing earnings expectations by 21%. The company posted an $84M loss on $635M in income but reiterated guidance to 10% growth in its digital division, keeping overall revenue declines to the low to mid-single digits. CEO Michael Reed reiterated the focus on digital transformation, with revenues from that side of the business likely to comprise 50% of Gannett’s income by 2025.

“The whole world is under-followed relative to the Magnificent Seven…Whether you’re looking at a place like Japan… emerging markets… commodity sectors… there’s really a ton of opportunities that people just refuse to look at.”

-Richard Bernstein, CEO and CIO, RBAdvisors

What had been a tug-o-war between the souring interest rate narrative and earnings excitement is showing signs of veering in yet another direction.

The news on both inflation and the economy has been worse. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), came in higher than expected at 3.7% last week. Inflation continues to creep higher this year. And that’s with interest rates already at the highest level in decades.

The market is in a tug-o-war between the bummer that rates are likely to stay higher for longer and excitement about the earnings season and artificial intelligence.

The launch of this earnings season has so far saved the market from a selloff that began at the beginning of April when the interest rate prognosis soured. Sticky inflation and a Fed that appeared to lose its resolve to cut rates this year spoiled a five-month rally. But earnings are reviving the market.

Xerox (XRX) reported significant year-on-year decreases in both revenue and earnings on Tuesday, showing a net loss of -$113M (versus estimates of +$49.5M) on revenue of $1.5B, down 12.4% from last year’s 1Q. Despite the disappointing results, CEO Steve Bandrowczak remains optimistic about the company’s restructuring strategy, which aims to align Xerox more closely with market demands and improve operational efficiency.

Tesla (TSLA) has had a rough start to the year. Entering Wednesday, TSLA shares were down nearly 42% year to date thanks to a bitter cocktail of sagging revenues, narrowing margins, and increased competition, especially in China. At the start of this week, TSLA shares had dipped to 142, a 52-week low, and were trading at their cheapest valuation on a price-to-earnings basis since last May and on a price-to-book-value basis since 2019.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious, though remain flexible. The market’s initial bounce this week was good to see but it didn’t offset the recent weakness, and today’s Meta-inspired selloff didn’t help the cause. All told, our Cabot Tides remain negative, and most growth stocks are still in rough intermediate-term shape—though the long-term picture is still positive. After selling the rest of our Arista (ANET) position last Friday, our cash position is 44%—we’ll sit tight tonight with our remaining names and our cash and see how earnings season continues to play out.

The week was ticking along pretty well until this morning’s first read of GDP (1.6% vs. expectations of 2.2%) came out and shot a small hole in the “at least the economy is doing well” argument that’s helped the market hold up despite persistent inflation data.

Embedded in the GDP report were Q1 core and headline PCE inflation, both of which were a little hotter than expected and up from Q4 of 2023. March PCE data will be out tomorrow and is expected to be the biggest macro news event of the week.

Just when things were getting seriously ugly, the market started having a great week.

Interest rate disappointment is being replaced by earnings anticipation. The new earnings season came in the nick of time. After five straight up months, the S&P was having a terrible April. Last week was the worst week of the year so far and the index has fallen over 5% from the recent high.

Nokia (NOK) missed on revenue but beat on earnings yesterday, reporting EPS of $0.10/share, which exceeded estimates by over 50%. CEO Pekka Lundmark noted that 2024 will probably remain a weak year for the mobile RAN (radio access network) market, but reiterated expectations that it will likely pick up over the final two quarters. Declining demand for 5G equipment in the U.S./Canada, and a significant slowdown in China (also notably affecting AAPL) are the root cause, but economic data has only recently started to inflect.

We currently own the JPM January 17, 2025, 100 call LEAPS contract at $46.20. You must own LEAPS in order to use this strategy.

As a result, our Small Dogs of the Dow portfolio continues to push higher, up over 22% on the year. More specifically, our INTC position is up more than 110% since we initiated it back at the beginning of 2023. The underlying stock position is only up 40%, again showing the power of using a poor man’s covered call strategy on individual stocks and ETFs.

Verizon is currently trading for 35.90.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Do a little more buying. Today’s action is very broad and bullish, with our Cabot Tides flipping to positive and with more stocks acting well and hitting new highs. Short term, it’s possible (even likely) we see some retrenchment after a straight-up move in some stocks, we’re going to beef up a couple of our positions today and look to put more cash to work soon (possibly in the next couple of days)—we’ll fill out our stake in Nutanix (NTNX) and add a 3% position back to Uber (UBER), which looks very powerful. Our cash position will now be around 57%. Details below.

VTI is currently trading for 222.60.



In the All-Weather portfolio, we currently own the VTI January 17, 2025, 165 call LEAPS contract at $55.05. You must own LEAPS in order to use this strategy.

SPY is currently trading for 448.02.

Our stop loss has been hit, so we need to stay disciplined and exit the trade. We’ve seen back-to-back losses for the first time since early February of this year and, believe me, more losses will come. But, as we all know, by staying disciplined and continuing to stick with our high-probability approach we will be successful over the long haul and that’s what truly matters. Remember, we need to allow the law of large numbers to work in our favor, and taking stop losses, when the time calls, keeps us moving in the right direction.

I will be exiting our Home Depot (HD) trade today. I will discuss the trade in greater detail in our upcoming weekly issue.

Remember, as is always the case, risk management is the key to long-term success when using high-probability option strategies. It’s the only way to truly allow the law of large numbers to work in your favor. Don’t get greedy and enamored by the quick nature of these trades. Stay disciplined!

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.