The market is weathering rising uncertainty as every major group of companies in the index, from banks to commodities, has climbed since the low point in April, with a small number of the usual mega-cap tech stocks leading the charge.


The World Bank announced it would lift its longstanding ban on funding nuclear power projects. The tide of sentiment is turning along with nuclear power stocks. The ban has been in place since 2013, but the last time the bank funded a nuclear power project was 1959.

Early last week was fairly quiet as stocks went mostly nowhere until anxiety ramped higher on Friday on tensions rising in the Middle East. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 0.4%, the Dow had lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.6%.

We had written lately that the market had been extremely quiet in recent weeks ... possibly a bit too quiet, as the market has a way of hitting a pothole after a period of calm. Sure enough, we saw some growth stocks ease early last week, and then the Middle East attacks and counterattacks caused selling on Friday. Even so, it’s been a normal wobble so far, and while things are likely to be tricky and news-driven in the near term based on the happenings in the Middle East, just about all of the intermediate-term evidence remains bullish. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7 today.

This week’s list is surprisingly growth-y, with many names from different sectors at or threatening new high ground. Our Top Pick looks to be near a decent entry after a humongous rally from early April to late May.

The market remains in decent shape despite an onslaught of potential landmines, including the new conflict in the Middle East, worsening unrest domestically and the July 9 deadline on the 90-day tariff pause for some 130 countries fast approaching. It’s not raining, but dark clouds are forming, so it’s worth bringing a poncho with you the next time you leave the house (so to speak). Today, we go with what’s working, and that’s energy, as oil prices have gotten an immediate boost from the sudden Israel-Iran war. Fortunately, Cabot Dividend Investor Chief Analyst Tom Hutchinson has one of the best-performing energy-related stocks out there, and one that pays a nice dividend to boot. It’s the newest addition to the Stock of the Week portfolio.

Details inside.

Early last week was fairly quiet as stocks went mostly nowhere until anxiety ramped higher on Friday on tensions rising in the Middle East. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 0.4%, the Dow had lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.6%.

Early last week was fairly quiet as stocks went mostly nowhere until anxiety ramped higher on Friday on tensions rising in the Middle East. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 0.4%, the Dow had lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.6%.

The top-down evidence couldn’t be much better, with our Cabot Trend Lines joining our intermediate-term measures on the bullish side of the fence, while the market’s action over the past two months portends big gains down the road. That said, we’re still waiting for more growth names to liftoff--so far, growth is up but at a moderate pace, and many names are still battling with old resistance. Not to repeat ourselves, but we’re optimistic more names will kick into gear, but we don’t want to get too far in front of our skis before then. We’re doing a tiny add-on buy tonight, but will still be holding 28% in cash and looking for new leaders to hop on board.

It looks like the president’s tariffs are beginning to show some effect on inflation. The latest CPI report showed that the inflation rate—while lower than the 2.5% economists had expected—crept up to 2.4% from April’s 2.3% rate. Core inflation—excluding food and energy—rose 2.8%, the same as April’s increase.

The number was helped by drops in apparel and automobile prices.

The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. The ADP employment number was just 37,000, the lowest level since March 2023, and less than the 111,000 anticipated.

Stocks have made an impressive recovery from the April tariff swoon. The S&P 500 is now within just 2% of the all-time high.

The recent market overreactions have been reversed. The market index is perched near the high. It’s tough to envision a catalyst that will drive a sustained rally anytime soon. Sure, there could be good tariff news. But uncertainty is likely to linger for a while. The economy is okay but not great. A recession is unlikely, but growth is still slowing.

Anything can happen, of course. But it’s time to acknowledge the possibility that the market could go sideways for the rest of the year and even beyond.

Dividends are king during times like this. Dividends roll in no matter what the market is doing or what’s going on in the world. Dividend income has accounted for a substantial portion of total market returns over time, about 34% since 1940. But dividends account for a much higher percentage of returns during periods of flat markets. While overall stock prices are stuck in the mud, the cash register keeps ringing.

In this issue, I highlight one of the very best income stocks on the market. It has a strong recent track record and is poised to thrive in the quarters ahead.

The S&P 500 broke back above the 6,000 level for the first time since February last week as the indexes are now within striking distance of their all-time highs (though they do have some work to do). By week’s end, the S&P 500 had gained 1.5%, the Dow had rallied 1.2% and the Nasdaq had advanced by 2.2%

It was another positive week for the market, with some major indexes nosing to new highs, and while it’s far from 1999 out there, individual stocks are seeing very few breakdowns while the leadership ranks gradually expand. Of course, there remain some headwinds out there, but the intermediate-term evidence remains positive, and we’re now even seeing some longer-term evidence start to point up. Thus, we’ll nudge our Market Monitor up another notch to a level 8.

This week’s list has something for everyone, with some zingers, some steady Eddies and more than a few recent earnings winners. Our Top Pick looks like an emerging blue chip in the cloud software field, and shares emerged from a big consolidation after earnings last week.

The market continues to nurse itself back to health, with the S&P 500 back above 6,000 for the first time since February and volatility at a four-month low. Numerous newsy items could derail it, including this week’s inflation reports. But lately, the market has mostly ignored the headlines, and so should you.

So today, we try and capitalize on the strong market in front of us by adding a potential new growth leader with enough momentum that Mike Cintolo tabbed it as his “Top Pick” in last week’s Cabot Top Ten Trader issue.

Details inside.

These are good times. The S&P 500 is up 6% since the election and 27% year to date. This adds to a 26% return for the index in 2023.

The market is seemingly making new highs every day as investors expect a higher level of economic growth going forward because of the election. We’ll see if the economic growth materializes. But this optimistic economy expectation comes while the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will likely last the next two years. Why wouldn’t the market be partying?

The market has been just great! The S&P 500 was up 5.7% in November and now has a 26.47% year-to-date return. This adds to the 26% market return last year.

Stocks were riding high, and the election provided a further boost as investors expect a higher level of economic growth going forward. The cyclical stocks have led the recent charge. The best-performing market sectors since the election are finance, consumer discretionary, and energy.

Small-cap stocks continue to act extremely well, and we have a new all-time high for the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. It hit 1,520 on an intra-day basis on Monday, then closed at 1,545. Both levels surpass the previous all-time high of 1,477 from November 2021.

The index is hanging tight to those levels today too, trading near 1,537.

Centrus Energy (LEU) shares jumped almost 19% this past week and are up 70% in the last six months. Dutch Bros (BROS) shares gained 6.3% this week following weekly gains of 10.6% and 36%.

Tariffs took center stage this week as the incoming Trump administration indicated day-one 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and some more for China as well.

After a brief dip following the post-election euphoria, the market is right back to a new high.

So far, the promise of stronger economic growth is more than offsetting the likelihood of higher interest rates for longer. As a result, new sectors have emerged as market leaders. Cyclical sectors have taken off. The financial, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the market. Those sectors are up 9.3%, 5.7%, and 8.6% respectively in the three weeks since the election.

In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Alcoa (AA), Brookfield Wealth Solutions (BNT), Intel (INTC) and Starbucks (SBUX).


The broad market outlook remains bullish for the rest of this year and early next year, but with the possibility for weakness to emerge heading further into 2025.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish, but again, be sure to keep your feet on the ground. The pullback last week was tedious, and our Two-Second Indicator is looking iffy, but the market’s trends have remained up and growth stocks are still very strong. We sold one-third of our Palatir (PLTR) position earlier this week, booking partial profits in a good winner, and tonight we’re going to average up in Samsara (IOT), buying another 5% stake, which will leave us with around 19% in cash. Details below.

Quick Note: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, you will receive next week’s Small-Cap update a day early, on Wednesday, November 27, 2024.

The S&P 600 SmallCap Index raced higher right after the election, gave a little back last week, found support at the previous all-time high early this week, and is now rallying again.

I think the small-cap story is starting to get out there and driving a wave of interest from investors who haven’t given small caps much thought for a few years. There is so much potential to rally from here that it can be a little hard not to get too bullish.

Tesla (TSLA) is getting lots of headlines these days, and for good reason.

Their CEO and founder, Elon Musk, was tabbed by President-elect Donald Trump to head up something called the Department of Government Efficiency (along with Vivek Ramaswamy); their stock price is up 57% in the last month; and the company is coming off its first truly encouraging quarterly earnings report in a year. Anyone who invested in TSLA a year ago, five years ago, or 13 years ago, when our Mike Cintolo first recommended the stock in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, has made a LOT of money.

But another company has surpassed Tesla as the biggest EV seller in the world. And today, we add it to the Cabot Value Investor portfolio.

After a huge post-election rally, the market leveled off.

The S&P 500 soared 5% in the three days after the election. Since then, it hasn’t pulled back with any significance, but it has stopped going up.

The market leveled off last week after the huge election surge. Stocks are trying to find a more sober post-election footing.

The S&P 500 was down very slightly last week after soaring 5% in the three days following the election. The initial reaction to the Trump victory was higher growth expectations and a surge in cyclical stocks countered by a spike in interest rates. We’ll see if those trends continue after the market fully digests the election.

In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Barrick Gold (GOLD), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), Intel (INTC), Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Super Hi International Holding (HDL).

The favorable liquidity backdrop should continue for the rest of Q4, which is ideal for initiating new turnaround trading positions.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious as the market’s correction accelerates. Today is another poor day in the market, and while nothing’s changed with the evidence, more stocks are melting away. Today we’re going to sell the rest of our stake in Arista Networks (ANET), which hasn’t been able to get off its knees since last Friday’s decline and is our weakest stock. Our cash position will now be around 44%.

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

Shares of Netflix (NFLX) are trading down this morning after the company beat Q1 expectations. Revenue grew 15.2% to $9.4 billion (beating by 1.3%, or $125.2 million) while EPS grew 83.3% to $5.28 (beating by 16.7%, or $0.76). Net streaming additions was 9.3 million, way ahead of expectations.

As the market continues to push out expectations for a rate cut (Powell’s comments yesterday make this much more likely), we’re going to lighten up a little more, starting with Liquidity Services (LQDT), which moves to sell today.

Sell Second Half Remitly (RELY)

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to play things a bit carefully as the market’s position deteriorates. Our Two-Second Indicator and Cabot Tides are weakening, and leading stocks, which had been churning for weeks, are continuing to give up ground. It’s possible this morphs into some sort of news-driven shakeout (especially given the hourly Middle East headlines), but we’re simply taking it as it comes. We already have 28% cash in the Model Portfolio, but we’re going to pare back further, cutting our loss in our half position in Celsius (CELH) and selling one-third of our position in Pulte (PHM). Our cash position will now be around 36%.

A number of stocks that were doing well have seen momentum fade and/or turn negative lately, and this morning’s slightly hotter-than-expected CPI print and rising chatter about no rate cuts in 2024 isn’t helping.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.