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From Verizon to AT&T, to Apple and Amazon—What is Market Share, and How Do you Predict it? Keep reading for the definition of market share.

For most of its life as a public company, Tesla has been valued like a tech start-up, could the recent sell-off be a sign the market is valuing Tesla like a car company?

Today I want to review the expansion and subsequent shrinking of the Internet stock universe, and then relate that to the growth of today’s alternative energy stocks. The best time to invest in a sector, such as Alternative Energy, is when it is uncategorized and indistinct.

It’s been a good year for initial public offerings. Adding these three recent IPOs for 2022 to your portfolio could be quite profitable.

Sell Apple (AAPL) and LandBridge (LB)

Credo Tech (CRDO) up 10% on Earnings

The primary evidence remains bullish, so we’re still thinking mostly positive, especially when looking at the big picture. But there’s no question things are getting more and more divergent: The broad market and even most big-cap stocks are flat to down so far this year, and more recently, as interest rates have backed up and financial stocks get hit, we’re seeing selling pressures start to spread. That doesn’t necessarily portend doom, but coming on the heels of a multi-month advance, this kind of action does raise the risk of a change in character; we’re going to pull our Market Monitor down a notch to level 7—still bullish, but holding a little cash, booking some partial profits on the way up and being more discerning on the buy side makes sense.

This week’s list has its share of hot stocks, and we’re impressed that we’re still seeing some strong earnings winners that are moving on very, very strong volume. For our Top Pick, we’ll go outside the tech space with a name that just lifted out of a multi-month base on earnings and could be leading a new group move. Try to buy on dips.

Current Market Outlook


The Nasdaq and leading stocks had a huge reversal today, with many names that had gone vertical suffering some heavy-volume selling, representing another shot across the bow. Still, as we’ve written before, one day does not a trend make; the trend of the Nasdaq and growth stocks remain up, while the broader indexes and cyclical sectors are positive but mostly range-bound. As has been the case earlier in the rally, what happens from here will be key--continued distribution would be a sign that the current run could be ending, likely followed by a well-deserved digestion phase, but strong support in the near future would likely tell us this was just another brief stumble on the way to higher prices. Stepping back, most of the evidence remains positive, so we’re still bullish, but the next few days will be key.

As opposed to the last two weeks, this week’s list is back to having a leadership, growth-ier feel to it. Our Top Pick is Alibaba (BABA), which has always had the makings of a liquid leader, and is helping to lead the group rally in Chinese stocks as it lifts out of a two-year rest.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alibaba (BABA)	254.81	244-254	220-225
Bill.com Holdings (BILL)	88.76	81-85	73-75
Kinross Gold (KGC)	8.19	7.2-7.6	6.5-6.7
Marvell Technology Group (MRVL)	36.88	35-37	31.5-32.5
Pacira Biosiences (PCRX)	54.85	54-56	47.5-49
Redfin (RDFN)	40.40	34.5-36.5	30-31.5
Roku, Inc. (ROKU)	150.46	147-154	128-132
Splunk (SPLK)	207.67	192-198	175-178
Sunrun (RUN)	38.40	27.5-29.5	23.5-24.5
XP Inc. (XP)	44.59	43-46	38-39.5

Motorola Solutions (MSI) has survived by reinventing itself, and Motorola stock is shaping up as one of 2017’s best investments.

Editorial Note: With the market closed tomorrow, January 9, we’ve bumped up this week’s Issue to today.

At the end of 2024, we were in a “buy now to win tomorrow” type market. Now, we’re in more of a “buy now to win in the coming quarters” type market.

Given this backdrop, our first portfolio addition of the year is a lower-risk, high-quality software company specializing in digital banking solutions. It’s the fastest grower in its space and is on pace to deliver its first full-year profit in 2025.

Like a lot of stocks in both the software and financial arenas, shares of this company have been a little weak lately. I think that’s good – we can step in at a price modestly lower than just a few weeks ago.

The rally since the election continues as Bitcoin reached $90,000 for the first time. Tesla (TSLA) has climbed more than 40%, and the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks shares of some of the nation’s largest lenders, is surging.

Dutch Bros (BROS) shares jumped 36% this week as it beat analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines while offering improved guidance for the remainder of 2024. Sea Limited (SE) soared 10.3% as the Singapore-based company reported overall net income that beat estimates at $153.3 million, with a better-than-projected 31% rise in revenue for the September quarter.

Twilio (TWLO) has acquired SendGrid (SEND) for $2 billion, a 19% premium to its share price. What does it mean for small cap SaaS stocks moving forward?

Current Market Outlook


Given the strong October run-up, we weren’t surprised to see the market retreat last week. However, the severity of the dip in both indexes and individual stocks was a yellow flag—many indexes dipped below their 50-day lines, lots of lagging stocks were crushed and even the leaders came under pressure on Friday and today. The action isn’t necessarily a death knell for the rally, but it does put it back on the fence; we’re switching our Market Monitor back into the neutral zone. It’s vital to get rid of losers, honor your stops and remember to book some partial profits in your winners. And as for new buying, it’s prudent to keep new positions small until we see the rally perk up again.

This week’s list has a broad mix of stocks and sectors—no unifying theme but a bunch of good charts and stories. Our Top Pick is Fleetmatics (FLTX), a unique software company with steady growth and a huge opportunity. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Tyler Technologies (TYL)	0.00	164-170	148-150
Charles Schwab (SCHW)	0.00	31.5-33	29-29.5
NetEase, Inc. (NTES)	0.00	141-147	128-130
Kite Pharma (KITE)	0.00	75-78	66-68
Global Payments Inc. (GPN)	0.00	67-69	61-62
Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL)	0.00	730-750	680-690
Fleetmatics Group PLC (FLTX)	0.00	55.5-58.5	51.5-52
New Oriental Education (EDU)	113.97	26-27.5	23-23.5
A.O. SMITH (AOS)	0.00	74-76	70-70.5
Alkermes (ALKS)	0.00	69.5-72	64-65

The market’s weak start to September and this Monday’s decline flipped our Cabot Tides to bearish; we responded by selling half of our leveraged long fund (SSO) and holding the cash. However, even with that decline, we were encouraged to see growth stocks hold firm, and the bounce back since then has also been good to see. If this turns out to be one big shakeout, there are many names on our watch list that we’d like to start positions in, but it’s too soon to conclude that.

Tonight, we have no changes, though the next few days should be key.

The Federal Reserve event came and passed without much volatility last week as stocks were mostly quiet. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow lost 0.2%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.3%. But yesterday’s 3% run-up in the S&P 500 and nearly 4% in the Nasdaq – fueled by a 90-day pause on U.S.-China tariffs – may have signaled a turning point for the market. Stay tuned.

Record Singles’ Day sales are adding to the month-long rally in Alibaba (BABA). But BABA stock is becoming much more than China’s e-commerce giant.

A broad-based Republican victory in the election is spurring a sharp rally on Wall Street as investors bank on investor-friendly policies.


Bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and gold also rose. It was reported that the gold reserves of Italy and France have risen in value by about $100 billion in the last two years. It is unusual historically for gold and the U.S. dollar to rise in tandem. Gold’s steady rise is also unusual given that traders would normally take profits along the way. U.S. economic sanctions have encouraged many to move into gold beyond the long reach of the U.S. government.



It is amazing how much money is being spent on politics. More than 11,000 political groups spent almost $15 billion to influence the election. Of course, this amount seems small weighed against a global economy of about $100 trillion, with the U.S. accounting for about $23 trillion (and about 35% of global debt).



It will be very interesting who gets the top economic policy posts and the GOP strategy going forward.

The great rebalancing is unfolding as we expected with the S&P 500 struggling while other global markets are gaining traction. The performance gap between U.S. and international equities so far this year is the largest since 2017.

With that in mind, today we add a new recommendation outside U.S. borders - albeit a company whose bread and butter is the U.S. market. It’s the best of both worlds.

Details inside.

This month, we’re going back to what’s served us well, small business software. The company has a cloud-based software solution tailor-made for property managers. It’s growing revenue by more than 30%, has no debt, and is on track to become profitable this year. The chart is solid. And I believe the company will ultimately be sold, hopefully at a nice premium to where shares trade today.

Inflation stays high, infrastructure week arrives, and Rivian stock surges while markets sold off a bit yesterday. The weakness yesterday halted some good rallies among Explorer stocks. We continue to explore new ideas and for this week’s recommendation, we go into the Cloud for a familiar name.