Two years after the yield curve inverted, there’s still no U.S. recession in sight. As a result, financials – beaten to a pulp during the double whammy of the 2022 bear market and the March 2023 bank collapse – have become the fastest-growing non-tech sector of the market. It’s also one of the most undervalued. So in this month’s issue, we add a very recognizable big bank that does a little bit of everything – and seems to be everywhere. It’s growing at a healthy clip and yet is cheaper than even the average financial at the moment.

Details inside.

Explorer stocks gained ground this week as market sentiment improved along with the odds of a Fed rate cut this fall.

I’ve been encouraging you to lighten up on some of the Magnificent Seven stocks over the last month or so. In just the last two weeks, these stocks have lost over $1.6 trillion in market value as market enthusiasm has waned and insiders have sold some stock.

What’s behind this trend?

Here are three possible reasons why big tech is facing a tough market.

Cannabis is a highly politicized sector because it is extensively regulated.

The political news has been very good for cannabis. But cannabis investors have been slow to recognize this.

A late-July Fox News poll showed that Vice President Kamila Harris has caught up to and surpassed Donald Trump in five key swing states.

Cannabis stocks should have advanced on the news. Not only is Harris a better cannabis advocate than President Joe Biden, she’d obviously be more favorable to the sector than Trump.

As I mentioned in my first installment of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, the most valuable lesson I have learned in my professional career as a price forecaster is that the rate of change – of just about any metric – tells us everything we need to know about the immediate future. When the rate of change accelerates, it tends to continue accelerating. When it decelerates, it tends to continue decelerating. And the resulting push and pull is a large part of what comprises the business cycle.

Going into last week we knew it had the potential to be a wild five-day stretch, and the market didn’t disappoint as the indexes swung violently, and sector rotation was intense. By week’s end, the S&P 500 had fallen 1.55%, the Dow had rallied 0.5%, and the Nasdaq had lost 3.8%.

The top-down evidence remains decent, with the broad market holding its gains and testing new recovery highs. The issue, though, is the formerly strong tech stocks that included a ton of the market’s liquid leadership—frankly, many of these names have decisively cracked intermediate-term support and look vulnerable to further selling. As we’ve written a few times now, there are still a decent number of setups out there, but for now, we think it’s better to play things a bit cautiously: We’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 6.

This week’s list has some early earnings winners and includes some ideas outside of traditional growth. Our Top Pick is another real estate play that appears to be lifting out of a longer-term consolidation.

A Midsummer Night’s Scream? That’s what the second half of July has felt like, with stocks (especially tech stocks) plunging and volatility exploding. Now comes another week of Fed speak and massive earnings reports, so don’t expect the choppy waters to settle just yet. But it’s important to remember that it’s still a bull market, and for a variety of reasons, I think the selling will be short-lived. So, today we’re taking another big swing by adding a recent IPO recommended by Mike Cintolo. If you’ve gone to Europe in the last two to three years, it’s possible you’re quite familiar with this company.

Details inside.

The top-down evidence remains mostly positive out there, but growth stocks have been hit very hard--taking things on a stock-by-stock basis has us with more than 50% in cash and, given the breakdowns out there, we’re holding that cash tonight. That said, we’re remaining flexible, too, as the major indexes aren’t in bad shape, the broad market’s resurgence has held so far and we’re heading into the meat of earnings season; given it all, we still think some fresh breakouts could occur if things go well. Thus, for now, we’re cautious, but we’re keeping our eyes open for opportunities.

The S&P spent most of the first half of July setting new highs. But that changed last week. The technology sector sold off on news of new AI chip export restrictions to China. The S&P fell about 2% for the week, giving up most of the gains for July. It may be a blip. It probably is. But the market is high, and stocks showed vulnerability to bad headlines.

A flatter or down market going forward makes income more valuable. The cash register continues to ring regardless of short-term market gyrations. At the same time, many income stocks are still cheap, and interest rates are likely to trend lower from here.

Some of the very best income stocks are in the energy sector. After recent price shocks and other problems in the energy sector, investors are coming around to realizing energy is a strong business that isn’t going anywhere for a long time.

In this issue, I highlight one of the best natural gas companies on the market. It is a newly formed company in the business of exporting abundant and cheap American natural gas overseas. It’s big business. In a short time, this company has become one of the world’s biggest natural gas exporters.

Before we get into today’s covered call idea, coming out of July expiration we have a couple positions that we need to address. Let’s dive in …

Pinterest (PINS), Sweetgreen (SG), Howmet Aerospace (HWM) and Hims & Hers (HIMS) all closed below their strike prices on Friday, which means the calls we sold expired worthless, leaving us with our stock positions today. Let’s exit those stock positions ahead of earnings season.

The past few sessions have brought an avalanche of news and rumors involving inflation, rumors of China/Taiwan tensions, a worldwide tech shutdown and, this weekend, a shakeup in the 2024 election, all of which have caused some reverberations. At this point, the top-down measures look fine, but there’s no doubt that leading stocks (especially growth stocks) have gotten very sloppy, with a pickup in breakdowns and distribution. All in all, we’ll move our Market Monitor to a level 6 and stay flexible: A strong rebound and some positive earnings gaps could still launch many new leaders, but we need to see the buyers step up in individual names to get more aggressive.

Another piece of good news is that it’s still not hard to find strong stocks with good stories, as this week’s list has names from a variety of areas. Our Top Pick is a big-cap name that reacted well to earnings last week and looks poised to help lead a fresh upturn in its sector.

Dog days of summer? Ha!

Not in the midst of a presidential election with enough drama for an entire season of Game of Thrones, rising U.S.-China-Taiwan tensions, a software failure slowing global commerce to a halt (briefly), two major wars still ongoing, and the Olympics just four days away. It’s enough to cause investors to make rash decisions. So let’s make some sane ones instead by selling two obvious underperforming fallen tech stars and adding a low-drama dividend payer that has a long history of outperforming the market.

It’s all part of today’s busy mid-summer issue. Let’s get started.

Many analysts now expect a “Goldilocks scenario,” with the economy growing nicely but not too fast. This would mean that the Fed does not need to worry about raising interest rates further to combat inflation. Good news for stocks.

I would like to clarify there are two reasons that I remove a stock as an Explorer recommendation. When I recommend a stock, I expect that it will deliver appreciation and dividends over the long haul unless I highlight that it is a more of a short-term trading opportunity.

The strong November rally has sputtered out with the S&P 500 up 8.7% for the month so far. Is that the end of this upside leg?

The month started with a bang after the Fed indicated it was done hiking rates, and jobs and inflation numbers seemed to confirm Wall Street’s opinion that interest rates have peaked. The benchmark ten-year Treasury tumbled all the way from 5% at the end of October to 4.34% at midday on Tuesday.

The strong November rally slowed down last week but it’s still very much alive. The S&P 500 closed last week up 8.7% for the month and the good times might continue.

The current belief in peak interest rates and a “soft landing” has investors still in an optimistic mood. The VIX, known as the market’s fear gauge, hit the lowest level since January 2020 last week. Any piece of good news could ignite a further rally with the current kindling.

The best poker players usually are stone-faced. That means that they show no emotions, make no unusual or unplanned moves, and most important, have no “tells.” A “tell” is any change in a player’s behavior, attitude or other actions that indicate the strength of the cards they hold in their hand. Common tells are changes in their chatter, eye contact, twitches and frequency of checking their hole cards.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to put money to work, albeit in a step-by-step fashion. From a top-down perspective, our market timing indicators continue to improve, with all three of our key measures (Trend Lines, Tides, Two-Second) now positive. Individual growth stocks are acting well, though many are still repairing the damage of the past few months. Thus, we’re optimistic, but want to see continued improvement to pull us into a heavily invested position. In the Model Portfolio today, we’re going to buy a half-sized position in Arista Networks (ANET) and add another 3% stake to Duolingo (DUOL), leaving us with around 44% in cash.

Wall Street has decided that interest rates have peaked. And the market loves it. The S&P 500 is up 8.4% so far this month and has made up most of the decline of the prior three months.

A quick reminder that Cabot will be closed tomorrow and Friday for Thanksgiving. I hope you have a great holiday and enjoy a break from the market.

Most stocks produce lackluster returns. A recent study¹ by Hendrick Bessembinder, a professor at Arizona State University’s WP Carey School of Business, looked at U.S. stock market returns from 1926 to 2022. Nearly 60% of all stocks detracted from shareholder value during this time period. From 1926 to 2016, half of the total wealth created in the stock market was produced by only 90 stocks. By 2022, the number was only 72 stocks.

This week’s note includes our comments on earnings from Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Macy’s (M), Tyson Foods (TSN) and Vodafone (VOD). The earnings season is winding down, with Kohl’s (KSS) reporting next Tuesday (Nov. 21) and Duluth Holdings (DLTH) reporting on November 30.

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There have been a lot of interesting developments in the market over the past week, with the lower-than-expected inflation reading and resulting speculation over the Fed’s next move right near the top of the list.

As it stands now, the market is saying no more Fed rate hikes, and even that we’ll see two cuts by next July.

Frankly, that seems a bit aggressive.

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WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s action of late is encouraging for sure, but there’s still more work to do with our Cabot Tides and growth funds. Today we’re going to sell our small remaining position in DoubleVerify (DV) and hold the cash—with an eye toward redeploying the funds in the near future should the market and individual stocks continue to firm up. Our cash level will now be around 45%.

The Yale Endowment portfolio continues to shine, outperforming our benchmarks with portfolio gains currently reaching 18% since we initiated the portfolio back in mid-June of last year. We have two short call positions due to expire today, so I want to buy them back and immediately sell more call premium.

Our WBA calls are essentially worthless and due to expire. As a result, let’s buy back our short calls and immediately sell more call premium.

Moving Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) to Sell

Academy Sports (ASO) Dips on Dick’s Sporting Goods’ (DKS) Horrible Quarter

I’m selling calls against our newly assigned shares today, per our Income Wheel strategy. I will be sending out another alert shortly to sell calls against our GDX and KO positions.

We are rolling our last two August 18, 2023, expiration positions into the October 20 expiration cycle. Next week, I hope to add several new positions to our active portfolios … stay tuned!

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

Our position in TTE is up over 30% since we introduced it back on June 30, 2023. The stock is up only 8.5% over the same time frame. With our short calls currently in-the-money and August expiration tomorrow, I want to buy back our calls for August and immediately sell more calls going out to the October expiration cycle.

All right, let’s get back at it.


As stated on our subscriber call today, I’m going to sell an iron condor in SPY and intend on adding, at least, two more trades over the next week. Volatility, as seen through the VIX, has kicked up to roughly 17, so it’s time to sell some premium.

Our Small Dogs of the Dow portfolio continues to push higher. More specifically, our INTC position is up 60% since we initiated it back at the beginning of 2023. The underlying stock position is only up 25%, again, showing the power of using a poor man’s covered call strategy on individual stocks and ETFs.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.