Issues
Before we dive into this week’s idea, let’s clean up a couple of positions that expired last week. Because of the general market weakness, today we are going to sell our stock positions in Qualcomm (QCOM), Oak Street Health (OSH), and Global Foundries (GFS). Once these sales are made, we will no longer own a stock or option position in these stocks.
Sparked by a “hotter”-than-expected inflation report on Tuesday, the market had its worst week since June. The numbers were not pretty as the S&P 500 fell 5.15%, the Dow lost 4.13%, and the Nasdaq declined by another 5.5%.
Sparked by a “hotter”-than-expected inflation report on Tuesday, the market had its worst week since June. The numbers were not pretty as the S&P 500 fell 5.15%, the Dow lost 4.13%, and the Nasdaq declined by another 5.5%.
We added another position to the mix, an iron condor in IWM, last week. And shortly after we added our range-bound iron condor, we decided to lock in profits on our SPY bear call spread, marking 10 out of 11 profitable trades since we initiated Quant Trader. Moreover, our holding period is only 17 days, far less (roughly 66% less) than if we were holding our trades through expiration.
My goal this week, if the market allows, is to add another bear call spread and bull put spread to the portfolio. My hope is that we can squeeze a bit more premium out of the October 21 expiration cycle, but we will have to see what is being offered.
My goal this week, if the market allows, is to add another bear call spread and bull put spread to the portfolio. My hope is that we can squeeze a bit more premium out of the October 21 expiration cycle, but we will have to see what is being offered.
Not much has changed with our trades since last week’s issue. As a result, I’m simply going to reiterate what I stated last week.
The portfolio continues to perform well in what has been a very difficult market for most traders and their respective portfolios. While I would love to have more trades on, I’m perfectly fine keeping our level at five open trades per expiration cycle with the understanding that as opportunities arise, I will add more. But with a widely vacillating market and a host of bearish crosscurrents I plan on maintaining a fairly conservative approach.
The portfolio continues to perform well in what has been a very difficult market for most traders and their respective portfolios. While I would love to have more trades on, I’m perfectly fine keeping our level at five open trades per expiration cycle with the understanding that as opportunities arise, I will add more. But with a widely vacillating market and a host of bearish crosscurrents I plan on maintaining a fairly conservative approach.
Earnings season is inching closer, but we are still several weeks away (mid-October) from the big banks kicking the earnings season off.
That being said, the next two weeks should offer some potential trades as FedEx (FDX) and Costco (COST) are due to announce later this week and Micron (MU) and Nike (NKE) announce the latter part of the following week. All four offer potential trades.
If I decide to make a trade, as always, I will send out a trade alert with all the details.
That being said, the next two weeks should offer some potential trades as FedEx (FDX) and Costco (COST) are due to announce later this week and Micron (MU) and Nike (NKE) announce the latter part of the following week. All four offer potential trades.
If I decide to make a trade, as always, I will send out a trade alert with all the details.
The market continues to retrace its steps back toward mid-summer lows, but not all stocks are suffering. Renewable energy names, including several in the Stock of the Week portfolio, are holding up quite well thanks in large part to lingering good vibes from the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. So we’re not fighting the tape – today, we’re adding another clean energy stock to the portfolio, recommended by our Greentech expert, Brendan Coffey.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The market has continued its volatility since mid-August, rising above 34,000 on the DJIA, then contracting, just to bolt upward again at the end of last week. Economic uncertainty and fears of a recession, although recently economists have been decreasing their likelihood for a 2022 recession, effectively pushing that into 2023.
The unemployment rate for August unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, but unemployment claims in the past week were less than forecast. It’s still a great market for folks looking for jobs.
We’ll have new housing stats next week, but anecdotally, I can tell you that prices are still being reduced in my region, but sales activity has increased, after about a six-week lull.
The unemployment rate for August unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, but unemployment claims in the past week were less than forecast. It’s still a great market for folks looking for jobs.
We’ll have new housing stats next week, but anecdotally, I can tell you that prices are still being reduced in my region, but sales activity has increased, after about a six-week lull.
Explorer stocks held up pretty well during this turbulent week as almost all were steady or up, with Chile’s SQM up five points. Stocks stabilized yesterday after a sharp pullback on Tuesday. While prices of gasoline are down, prices of most of other things like food, rent, and medical care are still rising. This week we dive into semiconductor stocks with a return to Taiwan for a new recommendation.
It’s been a rough year for stocks. And things may get worse before they get better. Meanwhile, money markets pay barely anything, and you never know when the market will turn.
Dividends are a great answer for a market like this.
They provide an income and lower volatility in turbulent markets and make it easier to stay invested ahead of the next bull market. Dividends account for most of the market returns during flat and down markets and excel during times of inflation.
In this issue, I highlight a company in one of the most defensive and recession-resistant industries on the market that currently pays a massive 8% yield. The stock is already cheap and likely near the trough of its own bear market with far more upside than downside over time to complement the high dividend.
Dividends are a great answer for a market like this.
They provide an income and lower volatility in turbulent markets and make it easier to stay invested ahead of the next bull market. Dividends account for most of the market returns during flat and down markets and excel during times of inflation.
In this issue, I highlight a company in one of the most defensive and recession-resistant industries on the market that currently pays a massive 8% yield. The stock is already cheap and likely near the trough of its own bear market with far more upside than downside over time to complement the high dividend.
Today, I’m recommending a company that’s benefiting from “green” initiatives.
Key points:
Key points:
- •27% revenue growth last year, and 17% expected growth for the next 5 years.•256% EPS growth last year.•A strong balance sheet with net cash.•High insider ownership.
It’s a good news/bad news situation for most metals, as shutdowns across Europe, Asia and South America due to power shortages and other factors are contributing to lower supplies for several industrial metals. However, signs that inflation may be in the process of reversing bodes ill for the intermediate-term outlook.
Uranium, meanwhile, is now in the driver’s seat as the global energy crisis supports the renewal of nuclear power initiatives.
In the trading portfolio, no new positions are recommended for now as the broad metals market is still unsettled.
Uranium, meanwhile, is now in the driver’s seat as the global energy crisis supports the renewal of nuclear power initiatives.
In the trading portfolio, no new positions are recommended for now as the broad metals market is still unsettled.
Updates
Yesterday’s market drivers are taking a back seat while previously jilted and ignored stocks are taking the baton.
After a volatile March, the market has found its footing. Month to date, the S&P 500 is up 2.8%, and is back to an all-time high. Our open recommendations are up 81% on average from when they were initially profiled. In total (including closed recommendations), our picks are up 71% since being initially profiled. While there are definitely pockets of froth in the market, I continue to find many attractive opportunities, and I’m looking forward to profiling my latest idea next week.
Today’s note includes earnings updates, ratings changes, the podcast and the Catalyst Report.
Growth stocks had a great day yesterday for the first time in a while—while the Dow lost 85 points, the Nasdaq lifted 201 points (1.5%).
Energy and technology are no longer driving the market higher. As a result, the S&P 500 is kind of moving sideways.
The big news this week (completely unrelated to our recommendations) is that a family office called Archegos Capital Management has blown up and caused a mini-meltdown in the market.
Market leadership appears to be shifting. It’s interesting to note that utilities have been the top performing market sector over the past month and week.
Stop-losses, or more fully, stop-loss orders, are trading orders that are placed to execute a sale automatically if a stock falls below a specified trigger price. The idea is that these orders can prevent a small loss from becoming a large loss. It can also be used to lock in profits.
The bull market in our turnaround stocks continues to drive several names to prices above our targets.
It continues to be a very tough market, and with our exposure to small- and mid-cap growth stocks our portfolio continues to feel pressure. After some signs of stabilization last week the sellers are back in control this week and many names look destined to retest their March lows, or possibly dip a little lower.
It has been one year since the S&P 500 hit bottom and since the then the blue-chip index has roared back nearly 75%. Just imagine if we would have had a pile of cash and the guts to jump in.
The market looks like it wants to change its stripes and morph into something else. But it’s not there yet.
Alerts
I’m tempted—I really am—to take some of our 46% cash position and move it back into marijuana stocks. Since the sector peaked three weeks ago, most of the stocks have had a decent pullback and now the best are moving up again, heading toward those old highs.
Growth stocks continue to bleed today, with many down 4% to 10% even as money rotates into cyclical areas. Our trend-following indicators are still positive, so we’re not selling wholesale, but as growth investors, we are turning cautious—we came into this week with 41% in cash.
Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) yesterday announced that olorinab failed to meet the primary endpoint in the Phase 2 CAPTIVATE study in IBS abdominal pain. This is disappointing but not remotely the reason to own (or sell) the stock. IBS is a difficult to treat condition and when we got into Arena the programs with olorinab didn’t even exist.
This insurance company just walloped earnings estimates, posting 4Q EPS of $2.55, compared to earnings forecasts of $1.32. The shares have a current dividend yield of 4.43%, paid quarterly.
Last night, Medexus Pharma (MEDXF) reported excellent results. Revenue increased 70% y/y to $31.5MM in the quarter. While that top-line number benefitted from ~$3MM of sales that slipped from last quarter to this quarter, it was nonetheless a very positive report. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $5.1MM from a mere $700,000 a year ago.
C3.ai (AI) reported Q4 results yesterday – its first as a public company – that came in ahead of expectations but didn’t offer enough about future growth to support the stock’s valuation. Revenue in the quarter was up 19% to $49.1 million while subscription revenue jumped 23% to $42.7 million. Billings were lower than expected (down 10% versus up 14% growth) due to invoice timing which could be shrugged off if not for this being a newly-public company with high expectations.
The stock of this oil company is seeing renewed momentum. The shares have a current annual dividend yield of 6.24%, paid quarterly.
Cardlytics (CDLX) reported Q4 2020 numbers this morning that surpassed revenue expectations by roughly 10% and missed modestly on earnings. Revenue was down 3.2% to $67.1 million (beating by $6.2 million) while adjusted EPS of -$0.05 missed by $0.02. Management gave 2021 guidance that called for revenue of $250 million to $275 million, which straddles consensus expectations of $260 million (up 40%).
This oil, natural gas, and mineral company recently announced its fourth quarter distribution of $0.242260 to unit holders. The shares have a current annual dividend yield of 8.60%, paid quarterly.
Arcosa (ACA) released an uninspiring report on Wednesday that was particularly ill-timed given yesterday’s market retreat. The company missed across the board. Revenue was up 2.7% to $459 million, missing by $4.7 million while adjusted EPS of $0.33 missed by $0.08. Guidance for 2021 also missed.
Personalis (PSNL) released preliminary Q4 results on January 11 and the official release after the close yesterday offered no surprises. Personalis (PSNL) Moves To SELL
This mining company sees bullish demand, and its shares were recently upgraded by Goldman Sachs to ‘Buy.’
Portfolios
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.