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Cabot Money Club

Cabot Stock of the Month Issue: September 15, 2022

The market has continued its volatility since mid-August, rising above 34,000 on the DJIA, then contracting, just to bolt upward again at the end of last week. Economic uncertainty and fears of a recession, although recently economists have been decreasing their likelihood for a 2022 recession, effectively pushing that into 2023.

The unemployment rate for August unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, but unemployment claims in the past week were less than forecast. It’s still a great market for folks looking for jobs.

We’ll have new housing stats next week, but anecdotally, I can tell you that prices are still being reduced in my region, but sales activity has increased, after about a six-week lull.

Cabot Stock of the Month Issue: September 15, 2022

Market Overview
The market has continued its volatility since mid-August, rising above 34,000 on the DJIA, then contracting, just to bolt upward again at the end of last week. Economic uncertainty and fears of a recession, although recently economists have been decreasing their likelihood for a 2022 recession, effectively pushing that into 2023.

The unemployment rate for August unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, but unemployment claims in the past week were less than forecast. It’s still a great market for folks looking for jobs.

We’ll have new housing stats next week, but anecdotally, I can tell you that prices are still being reduced in my region, but sales activity has increased, after about a six-week lull.

Energy and utilities are still the best-performing sectors year to date, piling up gains of 47.89% and 9.14%, respectively.

According to Sam Stovall of CFRAresearch.com, sub-sectors that are looking very undervalued include:

  • Casinos & Gaming
  • Internet & Direct Marketing Retail
  • Auto Parts & Equipment
  • Publishing & Printing
  • Application Software
  • Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
  • Footwear
  • Asset Management & Custody Banks
  • Diversified Banks

Here at Cabot, we are still keeping some powder dry but investing in strategic ideas.

Although inflation overall decreased to 8.3% in August, from 8.5% in July, the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, rose 0.1%. That created a rout in the DJIA, as investors expressed their fear that the Federal Reserve wasn’t raising rates fast enough to stem inflation. Like most investors, we’re awaiting the next Fed rate hike, which, I believe, has already been factored into the markets. But volatility continues, so we must be prudent in our selections.

INDU_SOM_9-15-22

SPX_SOM_9-15-22

COMP_SOM_9-15-22

Featured Recommendation
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN): Expansion Feeding Bottom-Line Profits
Energy stocks are up, on average, 47.89% so far this year. And I don’t think the rise is over. There’s still plenty of catch-up today, in terms of economic activity. So, I thought it would be a great time to add an energy company experiencing a nice growth surge to our portfolio.

Consequently, I turned to our Growth expert at Cabot, Mike Cintolo, Chief Analyst at Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader, for his best idea in the energy sector.

Mike’s pick is Devon Energy Corporation (DVN). Devon develops energy resources and has proven reserves of 1.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, including petroleum (44%), natural gas (29%), and natural gas liquids (27%) in the United States. The company has more than 5,100 gross wells.

Mike has had a position in Devon since June 2021, buying at 28 per share. His subscribers have had a great run in the stock, but Mike thinks Devon still has room to grow.

Here’s what Mike had to say about Devon:

“I’m fairly defensive right now, so I’m not advising a lot of buying. (We’re nearly two-thirds in cash.) But I do think the best stocks may have already hit their lows—and ideally, I own a couple leaders of the next bull phase.

“Devon Energy has been, in my mind, the institutional leading stock in the oil patch over the past year. And while I don’t think we’re going to see a repeat of the past 12 months in terms of performance, I also don’t believe the top is in for the group. In fact, I’ll just say I find it very interesting that we have major economic fears and a super-hawkish Fed and a runoff of the strategic oil reserve, etc., and oil is still in the mid- to upper-$80 range, which would result in a gusher of cash flow for DVN and others.”

For a deeper dive, in his latest issue of Cabot Growth Investor, Mike noted:

“Not unexpectedly, DVN has been hacking around during the past couple of weeks, essentially consolidating its big rally off its 200-day line last month (from 54 to 75 right quick) and tagging its 25-day line during yesterday’s dip (September 7); with the stock acting fine, we’re sticking with a Buy rating.

“That said, we are keeping our eyes on two things. The first, of course, is energy prices: While the stock (and its peers) remain miles above their summer lows, oil prices are doing the opposite, with current prices dipping to multi-month lows near $82 this week (year-end 2023 prices down to the mid-$70s), and even natural gas prices have retreated sharply from their highs.

“To be fair, stocks tend to lead the underlying commodity price, so this sort of combination (stocks resilient but current prices fading) leads to good things more often than not, but we’ll have to see how it goes.

“The second thing we’re watching, which is a relatively new phenomenon, is how DVN acts after going ex-dividend tomorrow (September 9)—with such large payouts (north of 2% on the quarterly payment, $1.55 per share), we’ve seen a tendency for energy titles to weaken for a few weeks after the ex-date as dividend chasers move on.

“Again, we’ll see how all that goes from here, but (a) right now, the stock acts normally, and (b) big picture, the firm’s cash flow profile remains outstanding, as the cash flow boost from its recent acquisitions likely more than makes up for the recent dip in oil prices. We’ll stay on Buy.”

In its most recent quarter, Devon earned $2.59 per share on revenues of $5.63 billion, a triple-digit earnings gain, and surpassing Wall Street’s projections on both the top and bottom lines.

For the current quarter, analysts expect Devon Energy to post earnings of $2.29 per share on $5.14 billion in revenues. And in the past 30 days, 10 analysts have boosted the company’s earnings forecasts.

And while investors are loving Devon’s growth cycle, they are also attracted to its hefty dividend yield of 8.78%, which the company has a habit of increasing. As you can see from the following chart, Devon Energy is one of the top companies in the S&P 500 for raising dividends.

DVN_CSOM_9-15-22

Source: DVN Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation

Fastest Growing Dividends In The S&P 500

Based on growth in last 12 month’s total dividend from five years ago

CompanySymbolYieldAnnual growth rate of dividend payment per share (%)Sector
Cigna(CI)1.6%154Health Care
Global Payments(GPN)0.890Information Technology
Advance Auto Parts(AAP)3.584Consumer Discretionary
Devon Energy(DVN)8.972Energy
NRG Energy(NRG)3.463Utilities
Coterra Energy(CTRA)8.956Energy
Newmont(NEM)5.254Materials
Lennar(LEN)1.951Consumer Discretionary
EOG Resources(EOG)2.532Energy
Old Dominion Freight Line(ODFL)0.430Industrials

Sources: IBD, S&P Global Market Intelligence

While many stocks in the S&P 500 suffered with the summer doldrums, Devon’s shares actually held up well, getting a boost from high oil prices.

Wall Street has a “Buy” rating on the shares of Devon, with a price target of around 79.

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)

52-Week Low/High: 27.40 - 79.40

Shares Outstanding: 654.8 million
Institutionally Owned: 80.18%
Market Capitalization: $46.594 Billion

Dividend Yield: 8.78%

https://www.devonenergy.com

Why Devon Energy:

Acreage is in top-producing resource regions of the U.S.

Diversified commodities: oil and natural gas

Low-cost operating structure due to economies of scale

More than 10 years of low-risk development inventory

High dividend yield

Undervalued

About the Analyst: Mike Cintolo, Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader
A growth stock and market timing expert, Michael Cintolo is chief analyst of Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader. Since joining Cabot in 1999, Mike has uncovered exceptional growth stocks and helped to create new tools and rules for buying and selling stocks. Perhaps most notable was his development of the proprietary trend-following market timing system, Cabot Tides, which has helped Cabot place among the top handful of market-timing newsletters numerous times.

In the years I’ve known Mike, I’ve always admired his calm demeanor when markets get crazy and have appreciated how he uses the tools in his repertoire to keep his investors piling up profits, year after year. So, in this interview, I wanted to get Mike’s take on the current market, along with a close-up look at the tools he employs when choosing stocks. Here’s our conversation:

Nancy: I note that you utilize two specific trend indicators—Cabot Trend Lines and Cabot Tides—to determine the mood of the market. In addition, you often issue market updates, mentioning the Cabot Two-Second Indicator. Would you please expand on those definitions for my subscribers?

Mike: Sure, Nancy. So those three are listed in every issue of Cabot Growth Investor. The first two really make up the backbone of our overall market timing—both the Cabot Trend Lines (a version of which has appeared in every issue since we started Growth Investor back in 1970!) and Cabot Tides are trend-following indicators that keep us on the right side of the market. In fact, that’s one of our big advantages—just by keeping in gear with these, we’re guaranteed never to miss a sustained upmove or stay heavily invested during a bear phase. And both are very simple, too.

Our Cabot Trend Lines are our long-term trend model. We simply compare the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to their respective 35-week moving averages. There are a couple of nuances, but basically, both of them above their 35-week lines is bullish, both below is bearish. This has been our most reliable indicator, as it doesn’t speak often. But when it does, it’s often meaningful. (The last signal here was a sell back in late January of this year—before that, it was bullish since June 2020.)

The Cabot Tides are our intermediate-term trend indicator. We look at five major indexes compared to their respective 25-day and 50-day moving averages. When at least three of the five are above the lower of their two moving averages, and when that moving average itself is advancing, it’s bullish. Put simpler, we generally need to see most indexes be higher than they were 25 days ago (five weeks-ish) for an intermediate-term green light.

Finally, there’s our old trusty Two-Second Indicator, whose name comes from the late, great Carlton Lutts (who invented it back in the early 1990s) because it only takes two seconds each day to check. The indicator simply measures the number of new 52-week lows on the NYSE every day—under 40 consistently is good, while over 40 is bad, though this one does have a few nuances to it (including positive divergences during major declines, etc.). But we think it’s a great measure of the broad market’s health.

All in all, these are a big reason why we’ve avoided much of the worst of the truly bad bear markets, including 2008 (we were 90% in cash when Lehman keeled over) and this time around (we haven’t been more than 55% invested since early December and have averaged north of 60% in cash during that time).

Nancy: When investors think of Growth stocks, most of us picture Tech and Biotech companies. And while your portfolio does seem to weigh heavily toward those industries (at least at the moment!), you also have a couple of energy stock holdings, and I know that in the past, you have sampled most sectors when recommending Growth stocks. With that in mind, when researching companies, do you start with the sector or a company that just stands out to you?

Mike: Yep, good question. I’m definitely a bottoms-up guy—looking for firms with (ideally) revolutionary new products and services. In fact, some of our biggest winners over the years pretty much invented new sectors—there was no satellite radio industry when XM Satellite Radio went bananas in 2003-2004, and there wasn’t really a solar sector when First Solar went crazy in 2007-2008.

Really, when picking stocks, I’m looking for firms with rapid and reliable growth, and also a long runway of growth, and you’re right, medical, tech, software, even retail can lend themselves to that. But I keep my eyes peeled for everything, and the oil story was unique last year—not just because prices were up (though when we bought our big winner oil was only $60 or so), but because the sector had had enough of the boom-bust characteristics and was transitioning to what I call the “new playbook”—limited CapEx, level production and monster cash flows (much of which is being paid out). My thesis was that investor perception would rise there given the change, and luckily it did.

Nancy: What criteria, specifically, are you looking for in choosing stocks for your advisories? Earnings growth, revenue growth, PEG, etc.?

Mike: So, like I said, the three Rs (rapid growth, reliable growth, long runway of growth) are what I look for—valuations don’t matter much to me, though I’m aware of them when they’re crazy. Sales and earnings growth are paramount, but earnings estimates are big and, after digging into the story, I want something that’s sustainable—the firm needs some type of competitive advantage or new story, etc. I’m not interested in stuff that’s growing fast today and tomorrow but could blow up the day after that sort of thing.

Really, I’m trying to find the stocks that Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, etc., are going to be piling into for the next year or two—the real leaders of a bull move because they have the new product/service/offering that is catching on.

Nancy: Although all style categories are down so far in 2022, Value companies seem to be holding up better than Growth. Do you foresee that continuing to be the trend for the rest of the year?

Mike: I mean, it’s a totally fair question, but I don’t really approach the market like that. I get what you’re saying but I look at it simply as—we’re in a bear phase, and have been since mid-November, and obviously in that scenario I’d expect stodgier, cheaper stocks to outperform. So, I’m holding a lot of cash for now—but my methodology revolves around the big money being made in the big swing—owning a good-sized position in some new, fresh growth leaders as a new bull phase gets underway. That’s when you can own things that double or triple and really push your account higher.

I will say, big picture, growth stocks did do fantastic from 2017-2020, so yes, I could see it being more selective in the next bull run—and maybe some growth areas that were underplayed last cycle (solars, biotech) could lead. But I really don’t get into the slicing and dicing of the market—I’m looking to own the growth leaders in a bull market and (mostly) cash in a bear. But that’s just me.

Nancy: You also provide your subscribers with a watch list. What specific catalysts are you waiting for before adding these companies to your portfolio?

Mike: Usually, I’m looking for the chart to shape up a bit—I like to buy things in uptrends, or possibly on pullbacks after good runs toward some moving averages—or maybe I’m waiting for an upcoming earnings report (I rarely buy soon before a report). Or, in this case, maybe I’m looking for an improved market environment before I want to increase my overall exposure. In any case, subscribers like to know what’s sort of at the top of my shopping list, so I provide that in every issue.

Nancy: What makes you decide to sell a stock? Do you utilize hard stops or mental stops? Or are there other criteria that make you pull the trigger?

Mike: When I buy, it’s a combination of fundamentals and technical; my old cohort Paul Goodwin (he retired a few years back and is surely making the most of it if I know him at all) came up with the acronym SNaC—which stands for Story, Numbers and Chart. We want all three when buying.

Selling, though, is 80% to 90% chart-based for me, and/or market timing-based—if a stock cracks support, we’re likely out. That said, a lot depends on the size of our position, our profit cushion and how early/late stage the stock appears (did it just get going a month ago? Or has it been running for seven months without a correction? Etc.) I am an intermediate- to longer-term investor, so I try to play things out, but I will take partial profits on the way up, partly to book gains, but also to give the remaining shares room to maneuver and retreat.

More to your question, I do use mental stops and I almost always sell the last piece of a stock defensively (on the way down), though again, I try to take some off on the way up, too—feeding the ducks while they’re quacking, so to speak.

Nancy: How likely do you see a recession for the U.S. in 2022? And how do you think that might affect your portfolio choices?

Mike: Good question but you’re asking the wrong guy. I’m thankful I’m not an economist or a macro guy. Frankly, I think the market will be that much closer to turning up once we get the official recession call from whoever makes that call. My stuff is just based on the market itself and the action of leading (or potential leading) stocks. These things topped in November and imploded in January way before there was any recession talk, and they bottom and base out months before any recovery talk.

Nancy: Are there any sectors or sub-sectors that you currently see as oversold?

Mike: I don’t do oversold—I’m looking for relative strength—but if you’re asking for stuff that looks “ready” to go up if the market stabilizes, there are a few. I mentioned solar and biotech; I think those are in the pole position. There’s also a new theme in the chip sector for some firms that I think could be big. It already is but could grow many-fold in the years ahead, driven by electric vehicles mainly but also some other areas. Beyond that, though, it’s still developing—some recent IPOs from last year look intriguing, but nothing clear quite yet.

Nancy: What are the three-five most critical challenges to growth of the stocks in your portfolio right now?

Mike: My top three are the market, the market and the market. Being a bit more serious, I do think there are some names that want to go higher, but to me, it’s all about the market—until the bear phase ends, it’s going to be tough for anything to have a sustained run, which is what I’m looking for. I guess you could say in turn that depends on the Fed or recession, but whatever the case, we’re going to need a bull market to make much headway.

Portfolio Updates
GitLab (GTLB) beat analysts’ earnings estimates in its second quarter, posting a loss of $0.15, compared to the -$0.23 Wall Street had expected. Revenues were up 75%, to $101 million, on the heels of year-over-year existing customer growth of 64%. The company also saw its net retention rate remain positive, above 130%, and its margin was a healthy 89%.

Going forward, GitLab’s management said it expects 78% revenue growth in the current quarter, to $105 million to $106 million, and adjusted per-share loss of $0.15 to $0.16, both better than previous estimates. Hold

Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF (DJD) is still trading in a buyable range. The largest sectors in this ETF are Healthcare (22.74% of assets), Technology (17.94%), and Financial Services (12.17%). Continue to Buy.

No important news on M/I Homes (MHO). But analysts are still calling for a price uptick to 81, almost double where the stock is now trading. Continue to Buy.

QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) should benefit from the CHIPS and Science Act. The legislation will allocate $28 billion to support manufacturing of advanced chips, $10 billion to making current chips, and $11 billion to research and development.

Chip shares have suffered due to China’s weakness and reduced demand for its low-end Android handsets. However, positive catalysts include the company’s success in the premium handset market, as well as future opportunities with 5G, the PC/Server, IoT, AR/VR and auto end-markets.

The company had a nice win with EU antitrust regulators who recently confirmed that they would not appeal a court ruling scrapping its 997 million euro ($1 billion) fine against Qualcomm, hopefully, ending a long battle.

Lastly, Qualcomm and Meta just signed a seven-year agreement to “deliver premium metaverse experiences via Qualcomm’s Snapdragon chips and the Meta Quest platform,” manufacturing new customized processors for Meta’s Quest virtual reality (VR) headsets. Continue to buy.

Carl Delfeld, Chief Financial Analyst for Cabot Explorer, just updated his view on our newest recommendation, MP Materials Corp. (MP), saying:

“MP Materials (MP) shares edged down another three points this week reflecting lower prices for some key rare earths. This is in sharp contrast to recently reported earnings per share surging 139% from the prior-year quarter’s levels and revenues reflecting a year-over-year jump of 96%. MP is a way to play clean tech, defense, semiconductors and other advanced and emerging technologies through some of their basic inputs. MP currently ships more than 90% of its products to China for processing. In April, MP Materials and General Motors inked a long-term supply agreement commencing in late 2023 for GM’s EV programs.” Continue to Buy.

Stock of the Month Portfolio
CompanySymbolDate
Bought
Price
Bought
Price on
9/14/22
Dividends
YTD
Div Freq.Gain/
Loss %
RatingRisk Tolerance
Devon Energy CorporationDVNNEW--69.07N/AN/A--%BuyA
GitLab Inc.GTLB4/13/2249.0258.23N/AN/A18.80%HoldA
Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETFDJD5/13/2244.4140.95N/AN/A-7.78%BuyC
M/I Homes, Inc.MHO6/10/2243.7538.94N/AN/A-10.99%BuyA
MP Materials Corp.MP8/12/2237.8332.37N/AN/A-14.43%BuyA
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)QCOM7/15/22143.76124.93N/AN/A-13.10%BuyM

*Aggressive (A), Moderate (M), Conservative (C)

ETF Strategies
For existing Cabot Stock of the Month subscribers, this will be a new section, designed to help you build a stock and ETF or ETF only portfolio, based on your age and risk preference.

My intent is to create a balanced portfolio of stocks and ETFs, which include investments from the Growth, Greentech, Income, Small-Cap, Value, and Gold & Metals sectors.

You’ll also notice that the stocks in your existing Cabot Stock of the Month portfolio now carry Aggressive, Moderate, or Conservative ratings. This is designed to help you build a portfolio customized to you. All of the ETFs that I recommend in this section will be similarly labeled.

Here is the current ETF Strategies Portfolio:

Current ETF PortfolioSymbolRisk Tolerance*Recommendation
iShares Core S&P 500IVVMBuy
iShares US EnergyIYECBuy
iShares Global FinancialIXGCBuy
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)TIPMSell
iShares 10-20 Yr Treasury Bond (TLH)TLHCSell
iShares Core US Treasury Bond (GOVT)GOVTCHold
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond (EMB)EMBMHold
Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF (DJD)DJDCBuy
AGFiQ US Market Neutral Anti-Beta fund (BTAL)BTALABuy
ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (SBIO)SBIOABuy
Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO)IPOAHold

*Aggressive (A), Moderate (M), Conservative (C)

As you can see, I’m recommending selling out of a couple of the bond funds at this time, as I think we can do better with equities right now. And I’m adding a few sector funds, which should boost our returns. Here are three new ETFs that I am recommending:

New ETF PositionsSymbolRisk Tolerance*Recommendation
First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure FundEMLPCBuy
First Trust Water ETFFIWMBuy
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETFLITABuy

*Aggressive (A), Moderate (M), Conservative (C)

First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund (EMLP) invests at least 80% of its net assets in equity securities of companies deemed by the sub-advisor to be engaged in the energy infrastructure sector. These companies principally include U.S. and Canadian natural gas and electric utilities, corporations operating energy infrastructure assets such as pipelines or renewable energy production, utilities, publicly traded MLPs, MLP affiliates and energy infrastructure companies.

First Trust Water ETF (FIW) will normally invest at least 90% of its net assets (including investment borrowings) in the common stocks and depositary receipts that comprise the index. The index is designed to track the performance of small, mid and large capitalization companies that derive a substantial portion of their revenues from the potable water and wastewater industry, according to Clean Edge.

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) invests at least 80% of its total assets in the securities of the underlying index and in American Depositary Receipts (“ADRs”) and Global Depositary Receipts (“GDRs”) based on the securities in the underlying index. The underlying index is designed to measure broad-based equity market performance of global companies involved in the lithium industry.

These are the definitions I am using for Risk Preference:

As a conservative investor, you are less willing to accept market swings and significant changes in the value of your portfolio in the short or long term. Capital preservation is your primary goal, and you may plan on using the principal from your investments in the near term, preferably as a steady income stream. The average level of return you expect to see is 5%-10%, annually.

As a moderate investor, you seek longer-term investment gains. You are comfortable with some swings in your portfolio’s performance but generally seek to invest in more conservative stocks that build wealth over a substantial period of time. The average level of return you expect to see is 10%-25% annually.

As an aggressive investor, you primarily seek capital appreciation and are open to more risk. Swings in the market, whether short or long term, do not impact your investment decisions and you have confidence that volatility is necessary to achieve the high return on investment you are looking for. You typically expect a 25%+ return, annually, though you do not need your principal investment immediately.

To assist you in creating a portfolio best suited to your personal risk and age range, I intend to offer you several portfolio allocations, based on these characteristics. Each will list a combination of aggressive, moderate, and conservative selections for which you can mix and match specific ideas from both the Cabot Money Club Stock of the Month and ETF Strategies portfolios.

Following is a sample chart of the current Asset Allocation models recommended for investors.

Asset_Allocation_CSOM

Current thinking for asset allocation by age is that the percentage of stocks that you hold should be equal to 110 minus your age. So, at 40, your expected allocation of stocks is 70%; at 60, it’s 50%, etc.

I have tweaked those definitions to provide you with several portfolio allocation ideas, according to your risk tolerance and age. Of course, you are welcome to further tweak them according to your personal preferences. You may mix and match the stocks in our current Stock of the Month portfolio with the recommended ETFs in ETF Strategies, or just focus on ETFs, to build your desired portfolio.

Each month, I will let you know if/when my recommendations for both the stocks and ETFs change. I plan to keep both portfolios manageable, and several of the ETFs, such as broad market investments, will not change much. However, I will add/subtract others depending on market and sector trends. Here are the current percentages of investments that I recommend at this time.

AgeStocks/ETFsBonds/IncomeCash
0-4080%15%5%
41-6070%20%10%
60+50%30%20%

Once you’ve decided that these allocations work for you (feel free to customize them for your preferences), the next step is to allocate the investments within the Stocks and Bond category, according to your risk preference. Here are my current suggested recommendations:

Non-Cash Investments
AgeAggressive/Moderate/Conservative Percentage Recommendations
Aggressive InvestorModerate InvestorConservative Investor
0-4070/20/1050/40/1030/30/40
41-6060/30/1040/40/2020/30/50
60+40/40/2030/30/4010/40/50

For example, an investor who is 55 years old and considers himself/herself to fall into the Moderate category, would structure a portfolio as follows:

  • 40% aggressive investments
  • 40% moderate investments
  • 20% conservative investments

From that point, you can use the recommended stocks and ETFs in the portfolios to build out your holdings.

Right now, we are short on Income in the ETF Strategies portfolio, but I will be adding some additional Income ETFs in the very near future.

Also, next week, I’ll send you some specific portfolio recommendations in an Alert, based on the above criteria, using stocks and ETFs from our portfolios to give you an idea of how you may want to structure your own holdings.

Energy Demand Continues to Build
It’s true; the U.S. is an energy hog. According to a recent University of Michigan study, “With less than 5% of the world’s population, the U.S. consumes almost 16% of the world’s energy and accounts for 15% of world GDP. In comparison, the European Union has 6% of the world’s population, uses 4.2% of its energy, and accounts for 15% of its GDP, while China has 18% of the world’s population, consumes 20% of its energy, and accounts for 16% of its GDP.”

CSOM_9-15-22

Source: CSS

And, as the economy recovered after the pandemic, those numbers continue to rise. In its latest forecast, the U.S. Energy Administration estimated:

Global Liquid Fuels

  • The Brent crude oil spot price averages $98 per barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2022 (4Q22) and $97/b in 2023. The possibility of petroleum supply issues, due to disruptions and slower-than-expected crude oil production growth, also weighs in favor of higher crude prices.
  • S. crude oil production averages 11.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2022 and 12.6 million b/d in 2023, which would be new records!
  • 4 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in August 2022, up by 1.6 million b/d from August 2021. The forecast: Global consumption will rise by an average of 2.1 million b/d for all of 2022 and by an average of 2.0 million b/d in 2023.

Natural gas

  • In August, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $8.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up from $7.28/MMBtu in July, due to continued strong demand for natural gas in the electric power sector, which has kept natural gas inventories below their five-year (2017–2021) average. Forecast: Henry Hub price to average about $9/MMBtu in 4Q22 and then fall to an average of about $6/MMBtu in 2023 as U.S. natural gas production rises.
  • S. natural gas inventories ended August at 2.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which was 12% below the five-year average. Forecast: Inventories will end the injection season (April through October) at more than 3.4 Tcf, which would be 7% below the five-year average.
  • S. LNG exports average 11.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 4Q22, up 1.7 Bcf/d from 3Q22. Forecast: LNG exports will average 12.3 Bcf/d in 2023.
  • S. consumption of natural gas averages 86.6 Bcf/d in 2022, up 3.6 Bcf/d from 2021, driven by increases across all consuming sectors.
  • Dry natural gas production has been rising relatively steadily since 1Q22 when it averaged 94.6 Bcf/d. Forecast: U.S. dry natural gas production to average 99.0 Bcf/d in 4Q22 and then rise to 100.4 Bcf/d for 2023.

Those numbers bode well for the fortunes of Devon Energy. Certainly, the decline in oil prices doesn’t help profits, but it certainly has not affected Devon’s bottom line, as the company continues to expand production.

Devon just inked a deal to buy Validus Energy, an operator in the Eagle Ford Shale. With this transaction, Devon expects to gain 42,000 net acres close to its current leasehold in the Eagle Ford Formation. The company said the acquisition will be immediately accretive and should also boost the dividend to shareholders.

The shares of Devon should benefit by rising price targets from Wall Street, as well as continued healthy hedge fund interest, currently about $1.5 billion in shares.


The next Cabot Money Club Stock of the Month issue will be published on October 13, 2022.

About the Analyst

Nancy Zambell

Nancy Zambell has spent 30 years educating and helping individual investors navigate the minefields of the financial industry. She has created and/or written numerous investment publications, including UnDiscovered Stocks, UnTapped Opportunities, and Nancy Zambell’s Buried Treasures under $10. Nancy has worked with MoneyShow.com for many years as an editor and interviewer for their on-site video studios.

As a lecturer and educator, Nancy has led seminars for individual investors at the National Association of Investors, Investment Expo and the Money Show. She has also taught finance, economics and banking at the college level, and has been quoted extensively in The Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, USA Today, and BusinessWeek.

Nancy’s book, Make Money Buying & Selling Stocks is an introduction for new investors and a reminder for experienced investors on how to profit in the stock market.