Issues
The markets traded sideways through most of April. But since then, the choppiness has returned—along with worries about the uncertainty regarding the debt ceiling, the expiration of the immigration-limiting legislation, and ongoing debate about the possibility of a recession.
Yet, economically speaking, the trends are still healthy. Manufacturing has held up, employment continues to rise, and job openings are still underutilized (as you can tell if you’ve been in a restaurant lately!).
Yet, economically speaking, the trends are still healthy. Manufacturing has held up, employment continues to rise, and job openings are still underutilized (as you can tell if you’ve been in a restaurant lately!).
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a game-changer that will usher in the next wave of technological advancement that will have a dramatic positive impact on certain stock prices for years to come.
The phenomenon got a huge shot of adrenaline when Nvidia (NVDA) blew away earnings estimates, citing greater demand for AI technology far sooner than expected. It’s like the opening gun has sounded for the new craze.
The efficiency and cost-saving potential for businesses are massive. Companies can’t afford to fall behind. For many businesses, rapid AI adaptation is a matter of survival. There is a stampede to apply cutting-edge AI technology to businesses before the competition. Companies that provide AI-enabling products and services will benefit mightily for years to come.
In this issue, I highlight the great income stock of a company that will surely benefit from the race to adopt AI. The price is still very reasonable, and it pays a high dividend yield. There is a window of opportunity after the first wave of price surges levels off before the longer-term price appreciation sets in.
The phenomenon got a huge shot of adrenaline when Nvidia (NVDA) blew away earnings estimates, citing greater demand for AI technology far sooner than expected. It’s like the opening gun has sounded for the new craze.
The efficiency and cost-saving potential for businesses are massive. Companies can’t afford to fall behind. For many businesses, rapid AI adaptation is a matter of survival. There is a stampede to apply cutting-edge AI technology to businesses before the competition. Companies that provide AI-enabling products and services will benefit mightily for years to come.
In this issue, I highlight the great income stock of a company that will surely benefit from the race to adopt AI. The price is still very reasonable, and it pays a high dividend yield. There is a window of opportunity after the first wave of price surges levels off before the longer-term price appreciation sets in.
Today, I’m recommending an aerospace company that is poised to double revenue over the next 3 years.
Key points:
· Earnings to triple over the next three years.
· Cheap valuation. Good dividend yield and share buyback program.
· High insider ownership.
All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!
Key points:
· Earnings to triple over the next three years.
· Cheap valuation. Good dividend yield and share buyback program.
· High insider ownership.
All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!
Ahead of the long holiday weekend the market had yet another good week. The S&P 500 gained 1.75%, the Dow rallied 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose another 1.9%.
This week in an attempt to diversify the portfolio we are adding an energy play.
This week in an attempt to diversify the portfolio we are adding an energy play.
After a heady run, further short-term wobbles are possible, even likely, as the market and many stocks digest their May/June gains and as fear levels rise with interest rates. That said, to this point the consolidation in the major indexes and leading stocks has been completely acceptable, with very little abnormal action. If we start to see some names crack meaningful support, we’ll knock our Market Monitor down a notch or two, but today we’ll keep it at a level 8, as the odds continue to favor this being a normal rest period that will give way to higher prices.
This week’s list has a handful of names that have recently got going despite the market’s shenanigans. Our Top Pick this week is from a beaten-down group that’s come to life, possibly signaling the start of a group move.
This week’s list has a handful of names that have recently got going despite the market’s shenanigans. Our Top Pick this week is from a beaten-down group that’s come to life, possibly signaling the start of a group move.
Volatility has resurfaced and stocks have pulled back a bit of late, though it’s still very much a bull market. We’ll see whether this week’s CPI print (Wednesday) and kickoff to second-quarter earnings season (Friday) reverses or accelerates the recent mini-selloff. In the meantime, we’re going outside the box this week to add more exposure to the improving cannabis sector in the form of a leveraged fund. It’s been a favorite of Cabot Cannabis Investor Chief Analyst Michael Brush in recent weeks, and with Congress back in session today, the timing could be perfect.
Not too much to report this week as we simply allow our August positions to erode in value, which as options premium sellers is a good thing. We enter earnings season this week, so I fully expect to add several positions to the portfolio over the coming weeks. We currently have six open position with the intent of getting up between eight and 10.
Okay, we are back at it after the holiday-shortened week.
The plan this week is to add another iron condor to the portfolio and potentially a bull put spread. Both positions, particularly the bull put spread, will help to balance out the deltas of our portfolio. Currently our open positions consist of two bear call spreads and as a result, the overall leaning is to the short side. While I’m not opposed to the slight bearish leaning, I would like to bring it back closer to a neutral state. Of course, if we manage to take off both of our bear call spreads for profits, which I think we all hope that will be the case, our current state of short deltas won’t be an issue.
The plan this week is to add another iron condor to the portfolio and potentially a bull put spread. Both positions, particularly the bull put spread, will help to balance out the deltas of our portfolio. Currently our open positions consist of two bear call spreads and as a result, the overall leaning is to the short side. While I’m not opposed to the slight bearish leaning, I would like to bring it back closer to a neutral state. Of course, if we manage to take off both of our bear call spreads for profits, which I think we all hope that will be the case, our current state of short deltas won’t be an issue.
The earnings doldrums are finally behind us as earnings season officially kicks off this week with several of the big banks due to announce towards the latter part of the week.
On Friday, prior to the opening bell, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) are due to announce and will be the focus of our attention this week. I’ve discussed below a potential trade in JPM, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Citigroup and Wells Fargo enter the trading fray this week. That being said, we’ve had decent success with JPM since starting Earnings Trader, with 3 out of 3 winning trades for an average one-day return of 5.3%, so I will most likely stick to the script this week.
On Friday, prior to the opening bell, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) are due to announce and will be the focus of our attention this week. I’ve discussed below a potential trade in JPM, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Citigroup and Wells Fargo enter the trading fray this week. That being said, we’ve had decent success with JPM since starting Earnings Trader, with 3 out of 3 winning trades for an average one-day return of 5.3%, so I will most likely stick to the script this week.
The market came under some pressure last week as the S&P 500 fell 1.16%, the Dow lost 2% and the Nasdaq declined by 1%. And while the market lost ground, I would note that it was a holiday-shortened week, and option volumes were down dramatically.
The market came under some pressure last week as the S&P 500 fell 1.16%, the Dow lost 2% and the Nasdaq declined by 1%. And while the market lost ground, I would note that it was a holiday-shortened week, and option volumes were down dramatically.
This month we’re digging into a recovering healthcare specialist that is both a self-help and an AI automation story.
After a few missteps in 2022, a significant acquisition and a new management team have the stock on the right track again.
Moreover, high healthcare utilization and a rapid acceleration in the company’s automation capabilities suggest strong revenue and profit margin growth throughout 2023 and into 2024. Enjoy!
After a few missteps in 2022, a significant acquisition and a new management team have the stock on the right track again.
Moreover, high healthcare utilization and a rapid acceleration in the company’s automation capabilities suggest strong revenue and profit margin growth throughout 2023 and into 2024. Enjoy!
Updates
With Friday’s action in the broad market undercutting the prior May 12 low, we have a clear signal that the uncertainty is continuing. That’s despite the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rallying to end the session above their earlier lows.
As I noted in a Cabot Wealth Daily article last week, we’re at a unique juncture in the investment markets. Friday’s action underscores that point.
As I noted in a Cabot Wealth Daily article last week, we’re at a unique juncture in the investment markets. Friday’s action underscores that point.
According to a recent study published by the Federal Reserve, 12% of U.S. adults have used cryptocurrency as either an investment or a way to transact in 2021. This number has increased from the prior year, when only 5% of the population were counted as users.
One of our most bullish theses is the continuation of user adoption. More people globally will turn to cryptocurrency as both a medium of exchange and as an investment.
One of our most bullish theses is the continuation of user adoption. More people globally will turn to cryptocurrency as both a medium of exchange and as an investment.
Earlier this week, we moved shares of a consumer staples company from Buy to Sell. We comment on earnings from two recommended stocks and comment on other recommended names. Some thoughts on the ESG trend.
The volatility continues but we’ve seen most of our stocks hold above previous lows (so far). The S&P 600 Small Cap Index is also holding above its lows from last week.
The markets continue to be challenging to say the least, with the S&P 500 off 18% so far this year, but like everyone I see some amazing companies posting strong numbers being pulled down over a blend of macro issues. These range from inflation and interest rates to the slowdown in China and conflict in Ukraine. Current Explorer recommendations still managed to outperform the market, with some up and most holding their ground in the past week. SQM (SQM) of Chile reported first-quarter profits up 10X over 2021.
The market has rallied strongly off last week’s lows. Buy I’m not buying into it. Stocks are already floundering badly again today.
The S&P 500 came to within close to 1% of a bear market last week, down 20% from the high on a closing basis before several up days and a better than 4% rally off the low. The index has posted six consecutive weeks of decline, the longest such streak in more than a decade.
The S&P 500 came to within close to 1% of a bear market last week, down 20% from the high on a closing basis before several up days and a better than 4% rally off the low. The index has posted six consecutive weeks of decline, the longest such streak in more than a decade.
The market has improved from the heavy selling of last week. But I’m not buying this rally just yet.
At the low point of the selling last week, the S&P 500 was down about 19% from the high. That was dangerously close to a bear market, down 20% from the high on a closing basis. A bear market is an important psychological level that would likely prompt further selling if crossed. And we came right up to the cusp.
At the low point of the selling last week, the S&P 500 was down about 19% from the high. That was dangerously close to a bear market, down 20% from the high on a closing basis. A bear market is an important psychological level that would likely prompt further selling if crossed. And we came right up to the cusp.
The past couple of weeks in the market have not been fun.
The only fun thing about the last few weeks has been the weather.
We got into the 80s last week near Boston, and this weekend temperatures are likely to hit 90 degrees!
I even got to play my first round of golf and didn’t play too badly.
The only fun thing about the last few weeks has been the weather.
We got into the 80s last week near Boston, and this weekend temperatures are likely to hit 90 degrees!
I even got to play my first round of golf and didn’t play too badly.
The financial press is full of chatter about what to do in the current market downturn. Common themes include timing the bottom (which usually includes the opposing suggestions to not time the markets followed by suggestions on how to do it), buying on the dips (highlighting the appeal vs. the danger that this is a secular bear market), and buying stocks that have been beaten down by 50% or more year-to-date. There are other themes, but these are the ones I see most often.
Despite the broad market downturn, all our portfolios are currently positioned to withstand the gyrations.
The S&P 500 rebounded 2.39% Friday while the Nasdaq jumped 3.82%. That kind of strong action clearly indicates that institutions such as hedge funds or mutual funds are scooping up shares.
The reason doesn’t matter, so it’s best not to try to explain the action away with theories such as short covering or an equity-buying spree in response to a (perhaps) peak in Treasury yields. It can be mentally entertaining to speculate or overthink these possibilities, but ultimately, it’s all about watching the charts.
The S&P 500 rebounded 2.39% Friday while the Nasdaq jumped 3.82%. That kind of strong action clearly indicates that institutions such as hedge funds or mutual funds are scooping up shares.
The reason doesn’t matter, so it’s best not to try to explain the action away with theories such as short covering or an equity-buying spree in response to a (perhaps) peak in Treasury yields. It can be mentally entertaining to speculate or overthink these possibilities, but ultimately, it’s all about watching the charts.
You’ve often heard me say that gold’s biggest gains are normally made when investors are worried about either the stock market, the economy or the geopolitical outlook. Right now, all three of those outlooks are in serious question. Why, then, has gold failed to respond to the heightened fears?
This week’s Friday Update includes our comments on earnings reports from four companies and more color on our initial review of another company that reported last week. If Hollywood makes a movie about this market cycle, perhaps it will be called “Revenge of the Moat.”
Alerts
I just wanted to drop a quick note about what we’re seeing in our portfolio; other than that the high-level action is mostly in line with the broad market (i.e., across the board weak).
The broad U.S. equity market experienced another “volatility event” this week, which was blamed on Covid variant worries and concerns that the Fed might begin tapering sooner than expected.
I just wanted to drop a quick note about what we’re seeing in our portfolio; other than that the high-level action is mostly in line with the broad market (i.e., across the board weak).
Coverage of the shares of this tech company were recently initiated at RBC Capital with an ‘Outperform’ rating.
As we enter the final month of the year, market volatility has increased, and with it, investor anxiety. But the main trend of the market remains up, so I remain confident that intelligent investors who follow proven investing disciples can make money—which brings me to an email I received from a reader just today.
After a so-so bounce yesterday (good for the major indexes, not great for the broad market), a combination of fresh virus fears and hawkish words from the Federal Reserve is sending the market reeling again. As of 12:30 EST, the Dow is off 590 points and the Nasdaq is down 264 points.
This mega restaurant company beat analysts’ earnings by $0.30 last quarter. The shares have a current dividend yield of 2.21%, paid quarterly.
This giant oil company blew right through analysts’ earnings estimates, posting EPS of $2.96, compared to the forecast of $2.21. The shares have a current dividend yield of 4.71%, paid quarterly.
General Motors has made a remarkable transition from bankruptcy in 2009 to a highly-profitable and innovative contender in the rapidly changing global auto industry, driven by CEO Mary Barra.
This is the world’s largest uranium company, and its shares were just upgraded at BofA to ‘Buy.’
On to the market, we’re in a good old-fashioned correction for growth stocks. The action in a lot of individual names is as ugly as we’ve seen in a while, with some stocks looking just downright awful. This is a broad move – very few stocks are being left out of it. I suspect the selling has been exacerbated by this being a holiday week.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.