After adding IEA to the portfolio after last week’s ratings change, we’re fully invested in our Real Money Portfolio. It’s designed to be 12 holdings of equal initial size. We’re up 4% on the total portfolio we hold now, based on market prices entering today (higher if we tally dividends and trust value of the portfolio’s two SPACs). That puts us in a good spot if Greentech remains on the upswing, since being fully invested in the early stages in a bull move allows us to capture more of the upside. There is resistance ahead, with charts suggesting a move 5% higher and then 12% above current levels will bring in sellers. However, the general stance remains bullish, with our benchmark Wilderhill Clean Energy Index above its uptrending 20-day and 40-day moving averages and little pushback by bears since a high-volume, strong price move earlier this month.
Looking at subsectors, solar, nuclear and water are all bullish, while wind has slipped to mixed. From a scan of weekly price movements, EVs and fuelcells are all over the place, with individual businesses on either end of biggest gainers and losers.
Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS)
The maker of drainage pipes and water management equipment from recycled plastic has pushed through 126, creating a couple of technically bullish conditions suggesting the move should test the all-time highs at 136. News has been quiet. We collected an 11-cent per share dividend last week. Our sell-stop is “under 100.” HOLD
Aecom (ACM)
Shares are pushing the all-time high over 79 this week on good volume. The business struck a deal to development a port management plan for the state of Texas this week, though dollar value wasn’t disclosed. Shareholders as of April 6 will collect a 15-cent dividend. Our sell-stop is “under 58.” BUY
Archaea Energy (LFG)
The U.S. landfill gas business is at an all-time high for its brief (11 month) trading history at around 22. Shares may be getting a little extended here and need to pause. We’re seeing some concentrated energy funds loading up on Archaea – making the business a top 10 holding – in bets that appear to be moves by underperforming funds to vault back to positive returns by overloading growth stocks. As a SPAC-derived listing, Archaea is still building fund support. Our stop-loss is “under 12.85.” HOLD
Charah Solutions (CHRA)
Charah reports earnings tomorrow with a whisper number of $87 million of revenues circulating, above the high end of published Wall Street estimates, and a consensus EPS expected of 7 cents. CHRA is in an indecision zone, neither bullish noir bearish, so earnings will push shares one way or the other, most likely. A move over 5.05 would be bullish, a drop below 4.82 would be bearish. Our stop-loss is “under 4,” with a probable sell recommendation from us before shares would reach that level. HOLD
Clean Earth Acquisitions Corp. (CLINU)
The Greentech-focused SPAC is profitable for us given the per-share trust value we can demand back is 10.10, though the unit price trades at a typical discount (for the current market), around 10. Units will be eligible to be split on or about April 15. Units largely are now illiquid, but remain a buy if you can find them. BUY under 10.10
Clearway Energy (CWEN/A)
Little news and little movement from our buy price. Support is at 33-32 and resistance should materialize at 35. We’ll initiate a stop-loss here of “under 23.” As with other stop-losses above, which are well below current levels, they can be set as intraday sell levels, meant to get out in a catastrophic plunge. BUY
Daseke (DSKE)
The specialty trucker is trading around a line that will flip sentiment from bullish to bearish, by our reading of the charts. There is long-term support at 9.5, but a settlement in the lower half of 10 may be a warning of the trade breaking down. Right now, action suggests bears aren’t terribly committed and we could see a move higher again from her. Our stop-loss is “under 7.19,” which would represent a definitive break of multiple levels of support. HOLD
Good for Growth Shares, Warrants, Rights (GFGD, GFGDW, GFGDR)
We’re profitable on the shares alone given the $10 trust value (shares are trading at a discount, around 9.70), with the warrants and rights therefore all profit even at their depressed prices (20 cents and 19 cents, respectively). No news, as the SPAC is on the hunt for a merger target. HOLD
Infrastructure & Energy Alternatives (IEA)
We recommended buying IEA with last week’s update after shares didn’t dip to our prior buy level. The portfolio booked IEA at 13.25 a share Thursday, the midpoint of the high and low. There’s some downward action on shares this week, but it’s mild pressure and is finding pushback at initial resistance. Shares just had a Golden Cross (for us, that’s the 40-day crossing over the 200-day moving average), which bodes well. BUY
KraneShares China Green Energy (KGRN)
The ETF, which is primarily China-listed Greentech stocks, is building a base in the 36-38 range, locking in the drop of mid-month as an island reversal. Unfortunately, extensive pattern research by Thomas Bulkowski finds reversals like this one a mediocre signal of future trend. More positive would be a close near or over 39, which would break some immediate resistance. Our sell-stop is “under 32.” HOLD
Lithium Americas (LAC)
The lithium producer is surging today on continued bullishness for western lithium demand for EVs and battery storage. We’re up 34% now on the position with shares likely to test the all-time high of 40 soon. We’re shifting our sell-stop from “near 22” to around our buy price of 27.60. HOLD
MP Materials (MP)|
Similarly, MP, which is the only western hemisphere producer of rare earth metals with its large mine in California, is surging too, giving us a profit around 28% today with shares around an all-time high today of 57. Shares may be overextended compared to where support lies, so we could see some consolidation action soon. Prior resistance at 50 should now provide support. BUY
Excelsior Portfolio
ADS-Tec Energy (ADSEW)
Little news for the EV charger maker. Warrants are largely unchanged at a recent 1.36, about 18% below our buy price. We remain long-term bullish on ADSE and the warrants. HOLD
FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
FCEL didn’t break resistance at its 200-day moving average in a test last week, and shares have edged lower as a result. They’re between support at 5.63 and resistance at 6.74 now. Little news. We’re up 18% on the position. HOLD
Origin Materials (ORGNW)
Warrants are holding mildly stronger nearing 1.60, with no news for the carbon-negative plastics producer. HOLD
Ree Automotive (REEAW)
Ree saw Wells Fargo initiate coverage on the stock last week with a price target of 1. The cynical would say Ree must have spurned the bank for underwriting business to be tagged with that price, but even if that’s the case, there’s no denying Ree continues to underperform and remains the worst of the SPAC basket we purchased in June. The warrants provide us more than 4 years for management to reverse course. Our warrants are at 30 cents. HOLD
ReNew Energy Global (RNWWW)
We’re mildly profitable on the India renewable power operator with warrants at 1.84 recently. The underlying shares are improving, in mixed territory now, and we’re generally bullish about long-term renewable energy potential in India. Like everywhere else, Greentech energy is the cheapest utility-level power source in India, without any subsidies. HOLD
Volta Inc (VLTA.WS)
Volta may announce earnings tomorrow – the announcement has been held up by a SPAC-related restatement of prior periods which will reflect SEC-mandated warrant accounting and ultimately shouldn’t affect the business. For the quarter to be announced, expect sales of $12.3 million and a loss of 18 cents a share. Our warrants are sharply weaker this week, at 1.06, after a series of brokerage price target cuts. Price targets from fundamental analysts, in our opinion, are meaningless numbers (Price targets from technical analysis however, have some predictive basis). At best, fundamental analyst price targets are lagging indicators – they get cut when shares are weak and below the existing target, and raised when shares are strong and above the current target, in a sort of feedback loop. Nevertheless, our opinions aside, the cuts appear to have harmed sentiment in the EV charger maker this week. HOLD
Thank you for being a subscriber. Our next SX Greentech Advisor issue is published Wednesday, April 6. Our regular updates come in weeks between issues, with the next being Wednesday April 13. Buy and sell alerts also come to your inbox as needed. I welcome your comments, suggestions and questions any time. Reach me at brendan@cabot.net.