Issues
Stocks finally had a good week, and our portfolio fared even better, with most of our names up 4-5% at a minimum, and several of them closer to (or exceeding) double-digit percentages. It’s just one week, but after a miserable March, the buying was a welcome change. We’ll see if it lasts. Bad news out of the Middle East or an eye-popping number from this week’s inflation report could send shares tumbling all over again. But let’s be optimists and add a big-name AI play that is hitting new 52-week highs and has enough momentum that it captured the attention of Mike Cintolo, who recommended the stock to his Cabot Top Ten Trader audience last week.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Markets delivered a strong week despite the constant Middle East noise, as a massive Tuesday relief rally and further gains on Wednesday helped the indexes finally break their recent downtrend.
Markets delivered a strong week despite the constant Middle East noise, as a massive Tuesday relief rally and further gains on Wednesday helped the indexes finally break their recent downtrend.
Markets delivered a strong week despite the constant Middle East noise, as a massive Tuesday relief rally and further gains on Wednesday helped the indexes finally break their recent downtrend.
It’s been an extremely volatile and news-driven past few sessions, but nothing has changed at this point with the evidence--it’s still pointing down, so we remain mostly in cash. That said, we actually think there’s a decent setup forming: Whereas two months go everyone was complacent but yellow flags were popping up, today many are worried but there are some green shoots, such as the resilient action from growth stocks and the Nasdaq holding its own. Of course, setups aren’t a reason to buy, so we’re standing pat tonight--but we remain flexible and have more than a few names we’d like to own if the market can get going.
Energy stocks have been crushing it this year, thanks mostly to the Iran War and triple-digit oil prices. The second-best-performing sector through the first quarter of 2026 has gotten far less publicity, however … materials. Materials stocks are the only sector up double digits through the first month of the year; they’re expected to grow earnings by 25% this year, and yet, the group is the second-cheapest by price-to-earnings.
That’s the perfect recipe for a growth-at-value-prices opportunity. And today, we introduce a mining stock that fits the mold perfectly. After a rough February and March, it has immediate turnaround written all over it. In fact, it’s already starting to bounce back …
Details inside.
That’s the perfect recipe for a growth-at-value-prices opportunity. And today, we introduce a mining stock that fits the mold perfectly. After a rough February and March, it has immediate turnaround written all over it. In fact, it’s already starting to bounce back …
Details inside.
Today, we’re highlighting a “circular economy” champion that has navigated a complex multi-year turnaround and is now entering a high-growth phase.
By taking a data-driven approach to everything from high-end luxury watches to decommissioned data center servers, this small company has built a platform that’s well-positioned to capitalize on the emerging recommerce super-cycle.
All the details are inside the April issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
By taking a data-driven approach to everything from high-end luxury watches to decommissioned data center servers, this small company has built a platform that’s well-positioned to capitalize on the emerging recommerce super-cycle.
All the details are inside the April issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
Marvell has historically been a boom-bust, more cyclical play involved in the storage switching market, but now it’s becoming a key cog for the AI data center buildout—with growth likely to go from good to great in the quarters to come.
Marvell’s top brass says it has the industry’s broadest and most comprehensive high-speed connectivity portfolio that addresses scale-out, scale-across and scale-up networking.
Marvell’s top brass says it has the industry’s broadest and most comprehensive high-speed connectivity portfolio that addresses scale-out, scale-across and scale-up networking.
First off, a heads up: Our offices will be closed with the market for Good Friday; we’ll send a brief Movers & Shakers update on Thursday with some updated stops.
As for the market, when it comes to the rubber-meets-the-road evidence, not much has changed: Most major indexes, sectors and individual stocks remain in intermediate-term downtrends, with elevated numbers of stocks hitting new lows and more things trading below longer-term moving averages, too. To be fair, while some resilient names with good stories have begun to come under pressure, there remains a batch of names that still seem like they want to move higher if the market allows it, so it’s important to remain flexible should we see a change in character. We pulled our Market Monitor down to a level 4 last Friday and will keep it there today.
This week’s list has a nice mix of growth-y names that are acting well, combined with some commodity-type names that have recently broken out of big launching pads. Our Top Pick is set to see growth accelerate from here as demand booms.
As for the market, when it comes to the rubber-meets-the-road evidence, not much has changed: Most major indexes, sectors and individual stocks remain in intermediate-term downtrends, with elevated numbers of stocks hitting new lows and more things trading below longer-term moving averages, too. To be fair, while some resilient names with good stories have begun to come under pressure, there remains a batch of names that still seem like they want to move higher if the market allows it, so it’s important to remain flexible should we see a change in character. We pulled our Market Monitor down to a level 4 last Friday and will keep it there today.
This week’s list has a nice mix of growth-y names that are acting well, combined with some commodity-type names that have recently broken out of big launching pads. Our Top Pick is set to see growth accelerate from here as demand booms.
Chaos reigns in the world and on Wall Street. Stocks have now fallen for five straight weeks, with the Nasdaq entering correction territory and the S&P 500 not far behind. Is the bull market in jeopardy? Not necessarily. But you have to go with the evidence in front of you, and right now, only one major sector is truly working: energy. So today, we beef up our admittedly light exposure to the energy sector with an undervalued gem – that has real momentum – courtesy of Cabot Turnaround Letter Chief Analyst Clif Droke.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Updates
The Iran market continues. Stocks began the week on a positive note. But it’s been one step forward, two steps back in a month-long slow bleed.
The S&P 500 closed last week down nearly 8% for the past month. The index is now within a mere percentage point of correction territory (down 10% or more from the high). But it hasn’t been panicked selling so far, just a consistent downward trajectory.
The S&P 500 closed last week down nearly 8% for the past month. The index is now within a mere percentage point of correction territory (down 10% or more from the high). But it hasn’t been panicked selling so far, just a consistent downward trajectory.
“Risk-off” has become the new mantra on Wall Street as fears of a global recession abound in the wake of the month-old Iran-Israel conflict. Not surprisingly, equity prices across a broad swath of industries have suffered as participants contemplate liquidity concerns as energy prices spiral, with select areas of the formerly high-flying tech sector facing extreme selling pressure.
But what is surprising to some is the way certain asset categories are responding to the broad market selling pressure. Some of the most historically defensive areas of the market are reacting in ways that are atypical, forcing investors to ask the question: “Are we entering a bear market, and if so, how should we hedge against it?”
But what is surprising to some is the way certain asset categories are responding to the broad market selling pressure. Some of the most historically defensive areas of the market are reacting in ways that are atypical, forcing investors to ask the question: “Are we entering a bear market, and if so, how should we hedge against it?”
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain defensive. The vast majority of market timing evidence remains negative, and while there continue to be some rays of light out there, most stocks are bumping downhill. Given the time since we hit new highs (back in October) and the fear that’s being built up (lots of headline-grabbing bad news), the odds are rising that the next upmove will be a lucrative one—but we have to be patient until the liftoff comes. The Model Portfolio has four smaller positions left and a cash position of around 78%; we’ll stand pat tonight, though we’re not ruling out a small move or two going forward, depending on what comes.
Investing in value stocks is a bit like putting together a successful March Madness bracket.
Sure, you could pick all favorites to advance to the Final Four, but it rarely works out that way. In fact, only twice since the current format (64 teams initially; now 68 teams, with four play-in games) of the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament was formed in 1985 have all four 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. One of them happened to be last year. But in the previous 11 tournaments, at least one team from outside the top 4 seeds (and sometimes multiple teams) advanced to the Final Four. (Note: This only applies to the men’s NCAA Tournament; the women’s tournament tends to feature far fewer upsets, for whatever reason.)
Sure, you could pick all favorites to advance to the Final Four, but it rarely works out that way. In fact, only twice since the current format (64 teams initially; now 68 teams, with four play-in games) of the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament was formed in 1985 have all four 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. One of them happened to be last year. But in the previous 11 tournaments, at least one team from outside the top 4 seeds (and sometimes multiple teams) advanced to the Final Four. (Note: This only applies to the men’s NCAA Tournament; the women’s tournament tends to feature far fewer upsets, for whatever reason.)
Oil prices, geopolitics, and shifting inflation expectations continued to drive noisy headlines over the last week, and the stock market has been responding with intermittent bouts of risk-off behavior.
Year to date, the divergence between large caps and small caps remains one of the market’s defining features and is – for obvious reasons – especially notable for us.
Year to date, the divergence between large caps and small caps remains one of the market’s defining features and is – for obvious reasons – especially notable for us.
This Iran-driven market is getting a bit of a reprieve this week, so far.
The indexes started the week sharply higher on rumors of talks to end the conflict. If the conflict does end, there should be a strong relief rally in the market. But it’s also quite possible that nothing comes of the talks and the market selling continues. We’re certainly not out of the woods yet.
The indexes started the week sharply higher on rumors of talks to end the conflict. If the conflict does end, there should be a strong relief rally in the market. But it’s also quite possible that nothing comes of the talks and the market selling continues. We’re certainly not out of the woods yet.
While the S&P 500 fell just below its 200-day line yesterday, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index has held up better. The small-cap index found support at 1,495 yesterday, the same level at which it previously found support last Monday.
It may be that investors recognize the more domestic focus of small-cap companies. Or their still discounted valuation. On the flip side, we’ll need to keep an eye on potential impacts on growth and the U.S. economy from the war in Iran, as well as rates.
It may be that investors recognize the more domestic focus of small-cap companies. Or their still discounted valuation. On the flip side, we’ll need to keep an eye on potential impacts on growth and the U.S. economy from the war in Iran, as well as rates.
Weak market environments are no fun, but they do serve a useful purpose. For one thing, they serve to flush out “weak hands” in individual stocks that are overcrowded with too many buyers. A weak market can also serve to build up a large amount of short interest that can serve as a fuel for a major rally once the air has been cleared, so to speak.
But an even more useful function served by market declines is their usefulness in identifying the leaders of the next major advance. Specifically, they show us that the stocks and industry groups that buck the trend during the market’s weak phase tend to be outperformers when broad strength finally returns.
But an even more useful function served by market declines is their usefulness in identifying the leaders of the next major advance. Specifically, they show us that the stocks and industry groups that buck the trend during the market’s weak phase tend to be outperformers when broad strength finally returns.
Some signs of life are emerging in the market.
For starters, the major indexes have stopped falling and were actually up two days in a row (this Monday and Tuesday) for the first time all month. Also, Bitcoin – whose main utility is as a leveraged investment tool in a bull market – is up more than 10% this month, at a time when stocks have been going the other way, thanks to the Iran war and sky-high oil prices.
For starters, the major indexes have stopped falling and were actually up two days in a row (this Monday and Tuesday) for the first time all month. Also, Bitcoin – whose main utility is as a leveraged investment tool in a bull market – is up more than 10% this month, at a time when stocks have been going the other way, thanks to the Iran war and sky-high oil prices.
“I’d rather be an optimist and wrong than a pessimist and right.” -Howard Marks
Stocks struggled again this week as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady yesterday. Higher inflationary energy prices were weighed against anemic job growth. The Fed preserved a path to cut rates later this year as the economy evolves. Some consider our economy to be at a fragile equilibrium with pockets of growth.
Stocks struggled again this week as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady yesterday. Higher inflationary energy prices were weighed against anemic job growth. The Fed preserved a path to cut rates later this year as the economy evolves. Some consider our economy to be at a fragile equilibrium with pockets of growth.
It’s still an Iran-dominated market. The Iran war is by far the main event. But the market is starting off the week on a positive note because of optimism that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and relieve oil price pressure.
So far, the market seems to be taking things in stride. The S&P 500 is only down about 1.5% for the month.
So far, the market seems to be taking things in stride. The S&P 500 is only down about 1.5% for the month.
The Iran saga continues. But the market is starting off the week on a positive note because of optimism that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and relieve oil price pressure.
The Iran situation is by far the main event in the market right now. The war could end quickly or drag on for a while. So far, the market is taking things in stride. The S&P closed last week down 3% for the month of March. That’s nothing like the tariff sell-off last April. But there is still downside risk.
The Iran situation is by far the main event in the market right now. The war could end quickly or drag on for a while. So far, the market is taking things in stride. The S&P closed last week down 3% for the month of March. That’s nothing like the tariff sell-off last April. But there is still downside risk.
Alerts
Shares of Xometry (XMTR) are selling off today for reasons that aren’t clear, since this morning’s Q4 report and forward guidance for 2026 were all good. Here are the details:
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
Shares of National Energy Services (NESR) are up nicely today after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 FY25 results early this morning. Revenue jumped 15.9% compared to Q4 FY24 (and +35% versus Q3 FY25) to $398 million (beating by 7.5%), and adjusted EPS rose almost 7% to $0.32 (beating by $0.07). The strong results were driven by high utilization and the beginning of work at the Jafurah frac tender. There were a few one-time costs in the quarter, including restructuring costs and two technology investment write-offs.
Artivion (AORT), our MedTech company that specializes in cardiovascular and aortic repair solutions, reported Q4 FY25 results after the close yesterday. Results came in a hair below expectations. Revenue grew by 11.7% to $129.5 million (missed by $48K) while adjusted EPS improved to $0.17 (missed by a penny) from breakeven in the year-ago quarter.
Portfolios
I plan on locking in returns on several of our current positions and immediately selling more premium. In addition, I plan to add at least one more stock to the portfolio, which will bring our total to seven stocks. I also intend on continuing to ladder our positions in perpetuity, so we are collecting premium on a weekly basis. As it stands, we have positions due to expire over the next four consecutive weeks.
Other than that, there really isn’t much to say at the moment. We continue to be pleased with the overall mechanics of our approach and more importantly the overall return, which currently stands at 145.7%.
Other than that, there really isn’t much to say at the moment. We continue to be pleased with the overall mechanics of our approach and more importantly the overall return, which currently stands at 145.7%.
Strategy
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Relatively new in the investing space, yieldcos give income investors a great way to participate in the renewable energy market.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Anytime we do a bit of spring cleaning in the portfolio—like the round prompted by February’s correction—I like to review our rules for selling.
Cabot Stock of the Week is a great way to build a diversified portfolio of the top growth, undervalued, momentum, international, dividend and small-cap stocks selected for current market conditions from seven Cabot investment advisories.