Search

Current Market Outlook


This morning’s positive news of a possible COVID vaccine helped the major indexes surge, but it also revealed some of the crosscurrents that remain—today saw a big bout of rotation, as leading growth titles were mostly lower while the lagging (usually economically-sensitive) areas did well. Even so, we don’t advise getting too involved in the day-to-day news or gyrations; overall, there’s still more positive evidence than negative, with the intermediate-term trend still up (today’s action helped on that front) and just about every leading stock remaining in a firm uptrend. Given the crosscurrents, we don’t advise going hog wild on the buy side, but we continue to think holding your strong performers (maybe with some partial profits here or there) and looking for decent entry points on strong names is the way to go. While we were going to knock our Market Monitor down late last week, the action of the past two sessions has us keeping it at a level 7.

This week’s list is a bit more diversified than in recent weeks, with strength seen in a few more sectors. Our Top Pick is PayPal (PYPL), which appears to have resumed its run after a multi-month rest period. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Avalara (AVLR)	102.00	97-100	88-90
Beyond Meat (BYND)	132.87	122-128	109-113
Fastly (FSLY)	39.31	36-39	31.5-33.5
Fortinet Inc. (FTNT)	137.53	137-143	123-127
Inphi (IPHI)	120.16	105-110	94-97
MyoKardia (MYOK)	108.56	106-110	92-95
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI)	103.94	73-77	64-66
PayPal (PYPL)	147.00	142-147	129-132
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)	155.72	139-145	125-128
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)	818.87	770-815	680-705

Two portfolio stocks delivered strong earnings beats are their recommendations are raised to Strong Buy. A third stock delivered a strong earnings beat.

If you’re interested in becoming a real estate investor the first step is finding the best places to buy investment property.

Need another reason to buy and hold stocks for the long term? May I present Russ Gremel, the Chicago man who turned one $1,000 investment into $2 million.

Headlines have shifted investors to “risk-off” mode, but there are seven reasons to buy stocks more aggressively before the market goes “risk-on.”

Occasionally, I will lower ratings on stocks that rose too far, too fast, and raise ratings on the stocks that present the best opportunities. Today, I’m raising the ratings on Carnival (CCL) and Vulcan Materials (VMC) to Strong Buy, and I’m lowering the rating on FedEx (FDX) to Hold.

Many Smart Investing portfolio stocks are trading in narrow, sideways price ranges, since having a strong initial rebound from the winter’s stock market correction. Those trading ranges give us good guidance on how to proceed with stocks.

Last week was another constructive one in our book, with the market shrugging off some “bad” news and with a few more names beginning to pop above resistance and react well to earnings. Having rallied nicely off the lows, a pullback or consolidation would be relatively normal at this point, the nature of which should be telling--and, of course, if the market simply ignores its short-term “overbought” condition, that would be very encouraging. As for the here and now, the evidence says we’re seeing more good vibes, but there’s still work to be done. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 5 for now.


This week’s list is full of stocks that have shown great power on earnings, which is always good to see. Our Top Pick is helping to lead what looks to be a turnaround in the HCM group.

The Emerging Markets Timer continues to flash a buy signal, as the iShares Emerging Markets Fund remains above both its 25- and 50-day moving averages, and the lower (25-day) has both turned up and gotten back on top of the 50-day. We have no changes in the portfolio today.

Tesla stock has long been a polarizing stock. But what should you do now with TSLA: buy, sell or hold? It depends on who you ask.

Despite emphasis on closing the gender wealth gap, women in (and approaching) retirement still face significant challenges. Not only do women live longer than men and thus need to stretch their retirement dollars further, they also have, on average, half the retirement savings and can expect to receive a smaller amount from Social Security. This month, we’ll tackle strategies that everyone can use to build a bigger nest egg, cut down on expenses, and achieve their retirement goals.

Nothing’s changed with the market from a top-down point of view: It’s bullish, with the intermediate-term trend pointed up, and now we’re seeing new highs expanding as more stocks join the parade. Individual stocks remain trickier, as we saw some rotation out of growth and into some other areas last week—if leaders decisively crack, that could be bearish, but to this point, the action has mostly served to broaden the advance, which is a good thing. We wouldn’t go wild on the buy side right here, but we continue to advise following the positive evidence—we’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 8.

This week’s list is definitely broader than it has been in recent weeks. Our Top Pick is helping to lead what looks like a fresh group move.

2022 was a hard year for stocks. Fortunately, Cabot Options Trader had a better year. These are the best (and worst) options trades I shared with subscribers.