Search

ThredUp (TDUP), Sportradar (SRAD) and Alamos Gold (AGI) Report

Current Market Outlook


There have been a growing number of yellow flags among leading growth stocks in recent months, and last week the sellers finally came out of the woodwork, causing a quick 10% top-to-bottom drop in the Nasdaq and cracking the uptrends in many leaders. Where does that leave us? Overall, the market’s intermediate-term trend remains up, though it’s getting close to the fence as most indexes test their 50-day lines. Throw in the fact that many areas are holding up OK and we don’t advise you to sell wholesale. But with decisive weakness in most leaders following huge runs (and some climactic upside activity during the past two weeks), paring back makes sense, and from here, the onus is on the bulls to step up. We’re knocking our Market Monitor down to a level 5.

This week’s list contains a bunch of names that have either avoided any major selling or have pulled back normally to support. Our Top Pick is Penn National Gaming (PENN), which looks like one of a couple of leaders in the “new” gaming boom.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AutoNation (AN)	56.16	54-57	48.5-50
Boston Beer Company (SAM)	791.28	765-790	695-710
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)	1299.15	1230-1270	1100-1125
Deere & Company (DE)	210.19	203-208	183-186
EPAM Systems (EPAM)	308.95	298-308	273-278
Farfetch (FTCH)	26.04	25-26.5	22-23
Five Below (FIVE)	122.69	120-124	106-108
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)	15.72	15-16	13.2-13.8
Nintendo Co., Ltd. (NTDOY)	66.76	64-66	59-60
Penn National Gaming (PENN)	55.31	53-56	44-46

Today brings the third installment about my recent 17-day 4,218-mile road trip to and through the American Midwest and back—which I’m presenting not chronologically but thematically. Today’s theme is art, not least because my wife is an artist, and the one concrete reason for this trip was an opening reception at the “Minnesota Center for Book Arts” in which she had work.

The Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, raised its benchmark rate a half percentage point yesterday as assets that investors perceive as safer were among those to rally. While macro issues such as inflation and interest rates are certainly important, in the end it will be company performance relative to expectations that will be decisive.

Even if inflation may be peaking at levels last seen four decades ago, the key question is whether these levels are transitory or sticky and likely to come back to earth slower than many imagine.

Explorer positions had an up week as the S&P 500 has begun a turnaround from bear market territory and is now down “only” about 13% for the year. This means it is up around 6% since hitting its recent low on May 19 as the Fed has softened its tone and China tries to get growth going.

Electric vehicle sales are set to more than triple to just over 20 million in 2025, according to BloombergNEF. This is up from a previous estimate of 15 million.

Explorer stocks held their ground this week as we move two positions to a hold. Don’t be too discouraged. S&P 500 stocks struggled in the first half of this year, roughly equal to that of 1970. That year the S&P 500 fell 21% in the first half and then gained 27% in the second half. Let’s hope 2022 follows a similar pattern.

Some of you might have been a bit alarmed at the message attached to last week’s issue that the next issue will be out January 7, 2021. But today we have an update and rest assured, I’ll be following the Explorer portfolio next week and will send an alert if anything unusual happens. I will also have another update and some portfolio changes the following week.

Markets continue to at best tread water. Yesterday, markets performed better as the Nasdaq Composite ended a seven-session streak of declines.

Kraken Robotics (KRKNF) shares were up 20% in their first week as an Explorer recommendation as the company signed a follow-on contract to supply additional KATFISH™ for the NATO Navy’s new mine hunting vessels.

This rise of the U.S. dollar against the yen, euro and pound as well as most other currencies in the world is a mixed blessing for investors. You can take your capital gains and head to Europe or Japan for a trip and imported goods will be cheaper. On the other hand, American companies and stocks will be hurt by their exports being more expensive to overseas buyers and their overseas earnings will be worth less in U.S. dollars when brought back to America.

The best way to make big money in growth stocks is to invest in fast-growing companies in fast-growing industries, and ride the major trends for as long as they remain up. In 2007, the biggest trend - still ongoing - was the rise in solar power stocks. And next year? Here are my five best guesses for the trends that will reward investors in 2008.

I’m in Amish country this week so the Cabot Explorer issue will be briefer than usual today. Markets are facing a 5% dilemma. The benchmark Treasury yield closed just above 4.9%, a fresh 16-year high.

Third-quarter GDP estimated growth may be above 5%, signaling that inflationary expectations are still strong.

The market will likely turn broadly positive when expectations are that interest rate hikes are over – and lower rates may be around the corner.

German auto stocks have been red-hot the last three months, and they have China to thank for it. But will the real long-term winner in China be Tesla?

Investing in stock spin-offs is one of the few ways that investors can beat the market. Here are 3 stock spin-offs for 2022 that look good.

I maintain a running watch list of the market’s top micro-cap stocks. Here are three that are currently on my radar.

Food might be a consumer staple, but does that mean a food ETF can serve up winning numbers in your portfolio? Maybe not.

Facebook is changing its name to Meta Platforms and going all-in on it, but what is the metaverse and what does it mean for investors?

Ethereum has taken it on the chin of late much like Bitcoin. But a new network upgrade could greatly improve its value. Let me explain.