It seemed like the post-Fed action from two weeks ago may have paved the way for another leg up in the leadership, but while that’s not off the table, we’re continuing to see a lot of crosscurrents out there as money sloshes around. What does it mean? Not much yet, as the major evidence remains positive, but it’s best to continue to raise and honor your stops, while for new buying, make sure you’re focusing on names that are generally earlier in their moves. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 8, but more than ever, it really depends where you look.

This week’s list has many names that are either just coming into favor or have tightened up nicely after prior runs. For our Top Pick, we’ll go back to the commodity theme, with a stock that’s toying with new highs despite the fact that natural gas is still at very low levels. We’re OK starting small here and adding if the buying continues.

Stocks keep rolling into spring on the heels of an excellent first quarter. Can the next three months match the previous three (or five)? Probably not. But bull markets don’t normally die of old age, and there are plenty of reasons to believe stocks will be higher by the end of Q2. With that in mind, today we add another beneficiary of artificial intelligence, though a company that’s not entirely dependent on AI. Instead, it’s one that’s found new life thanks in part to AI – similar to Microsoft (MSFT) when we added it to the portfolio a year ago. It’s been in Carl Delfeld’s Cabot Explorer portfolio for months, and today we welcome it to Stock of the Week.

As I noted last week, this is a shortened version of the normal Monday Weekly Review as the Mintz family just got back home late last night from a short Spring Break trip. I am back at the trading desk today, and all Cabot Options-related services will run as normal this week.

As I noted last week, this is a shortened version of the normal Monday Weekly Review as the Mintz family just got back home late last night from a short Spring Break trip. I am back at the trading desk today, and all Cabot Options-related services will run as normal this week.

The bull market rages on, and technology stocks continue to garner most of the headlines, some of which we’ll examine today. But our new recommendation isn’t some go-go artificial intelligence play: it’s a small-cap U.S. titanium maker that’s off to a very fast start (+56%) in 2024 ... with plenty more runway ahead.

Our main Cabot Cannabis Investor portfolio has vastly outperformed this year, with a 38% gain as of the March 26 close. That was 15 percentage points better than the 22.8% gain for the New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index. We’ve done 31 percentage points better than the 7.1% gains this year in the S&P 500.

Our Cabot Cannabis Plus Insider Portfolio is up 42.6% since I launched it on March 29 last year. That’s more than twice the 16.8% gain in the Russell 2000 index over the same time.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the April 2024 issue.

In this issue, we discuss the most effective and often the only way to reverse the fortunes of a struggling company: a change in leadership. We offer our views on four new CEO situations that are currently attractive and three that are not quite ready yet.

This month’s Buy recommendation, Barnes Group (B), is an aerospace and industrial components maker that is stepping up its efforts to become more valuable, helped by a new CEO and urged on by pressure from a credible activist investor that recently gained several board seats.

The title sounds counterintuitive. After all, the market has been terrific. And technology stocks, which rarely pay dividends, are leading the charge.

The S&P 500 has spent much of this year making new all-time highs. The index has rallied 27% since late October and 46% from the low in October of 2022. But most of those gains have been driven by the technology sector, which represents an outsized portion of the S&P. Returns for the rest of the market have been rather lame.

It was a strong week for the market following the Federal Reserve meeting. And while some talking heads may say the reason the indexes rallied was the Fed’s moves, or lack thereof, more likely the reason is we are in a bull market.

By week’s end, the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, the Dow rallied 1.6% and the Nasdaq advanced by 1.7%.

There was definitely some churning in the leading areas of the market from early February into last week’s Fed meeting, but there wasn’t much abnormal action, and the past few days have seen the buyers back at it, helping many leading stocks of all stripes pop. Now, we don’t consider the action as a brand-new buy signal, but the major evidence of the market (trends are up for most indexes and sectors) never wavered, so we’re holding most of our winners and looking to increase exposure in names that are enjoying big-volume accumulation. We’ll nudge our Market Monitor up at level 8.

This week’s list is a bit of a hodgepodge, with different types of names from varying sectors. For our Top Pick, we’ll go with a name from a strong sector that has seen its business turn up in a major way while the stock’s recent action looks like a major change in investor perception.

The bull market rolls on, with Jerome Powell and company only adding fuel to the buyers’ fire by affirming their intention to cut interest rates three more times this year. While the artificial intelligence hype cycle has slowed a bit, other sectors are starting to get noticed. One of them is MedTech. So today, we add a once-great MedTech stock that got slashed in half during the bear market of 2022 but has since climbed all the way back to new highs, thanks in part to a new product just approved by the FDA. It was enough to convince Tyler Laundon to add the stock to his Cabot Early Opportunities portfolio, and today we do the same.

The slow and steady approach continues to work in all market environments. We continue to tack on small gains each and every week via laddering. By laddering the expiration cycles of our positions, we have been able to collect income each and every week. This week, we locked in and added 2.3% to our total returns. Doesn’t sound like much to the uninitiated, but for those participating in the strategy our Income Trader portfolio continues to shine with a total return of 161.5%.

And it doesn’t stop there.

While everyone has been watching the highlight reel of top performers with leverage to the AI theme lately, the real story this week is that more areas of the market are shaping up.

Yesterday, while the Nasdaq sold off, we saw the S&P 600 Small Cap Financial ETF (PSCF) pop 3%. That came on the heels of a 4% rally Tuesday.

Yes, yes, I know. Nobody really cares about this ETF. But small banks make up almost a third of total U.S. deposits. They matter, bigly.

Explorer stocks gained or held their ground this week as the so-called “Mega-Cap 8” stocks dominate a narrow market for now.

China has become the 20% market – 20% of world GDP and 20% of multinational total revenue. This explains the steady stream of CEOs to China while Washington and Beijing top officials traded insults at a Singapore defense forum.

This is, dare I say, a good market.

The S&P 500 is up 11.31% YTD, and the year isn’t even half over. Stocks have rallied more than 20% from the October low. The index is within bad breath distance of last summer’s high. The S&P is only 10% below the all-time high.

Why is the market so strong? There are several reasons. Inflation is coming down. The Fed is almost done hiking rates. And there is no recession. Throw in a booming artificial intelligence business and you have a rising market.

This week, I wanted to share a few charts before getting into my weekly update.

The first chart shows the amazing valuation discrepancy between small stocks and large-cap stocks.

Mega-cap stocks are trading at a PE ratio of 29.4x while small-cap stocks are trading at a 12.8x.

The economy is showing some mixed signals. But it certainly does not appear to be near a recession now. That could change. But it keeps not coming.


At the same time, the Fed is near the end of the rate hiking cycle. Sure, there’s speculation about another rate hike in the June meeting or the next one. But it is still close to the end of the hiking cycle. Inflation appears to be moderating (for now). Unless there is a big surprise with that number, the market can soon stop worrying about the Fed.

This week, we comment on earnings from Duluth Holdings (DLTH) and Macy’s (M).

We also include the Catalyst Report and a summary of the June edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday. We encourage you to look through the Catalyst Report. This report is a listing of all of the companies that have reported a catalyst in the past month. These catalysts include new CEOs, activist activity, spin-offs and other possible game-changers. We source many of our feature recommendations from this list. You will find it nowhere else on Wall Street.

The technology sector is on fire. Before the market opened on Tuesday, the sector was up 5% for the past week, 15% for the last month, and 34% YTD. It’s also up more than 2% on Tuesday. What happened?


The outlook for many sector stocks greatly improved last Thursday. AI, or artificial intelligence, had been seen as a huge growth engine going forward as companies invest heavily in the technology. Those growth projections got a huge shot of adrenaline and the AI phenomenon got real when semiconductor company Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings last week.

These days, AI, or artificial intelligence, is the buzzword du jour.

And it’s easy to understand why.

Play around with ChatGPT, and you will find it to be an incredibly helpful tool.

Longer-term subscribers are no doubt familiar with our immense patience with beleaguered discount retailer Big Lots (BIG). Its shares initially sagged due to bloated inventory, similar to other more highly regarded retailers like Target and Walmart, leading to our initial recommendation. We had expected that its earnings would be weakened as it offloaded its excess goods at sizeable discounts, but also that it would ultimately work its way out of its difficult but by no means impossible situation. At the time, Big Lots had a cash-heavy, nearly debt-free balance sheet, was generating positive free cash flow and traded at a depressed 3x EV/EBITDA multiple. What could go wrong?

Last week was a big week in the market. Game-changing news in the technology sector that significantly improves future earnings projections for many companies is causing the sector to soar.


AI or artificial intelligence had been seen as a huge growth engine going forward as companies invest heavily in the technology. Those growth projections got a huge shot of adrenaline and the AI phenomenon got real when semiconductor company Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings and guidance that blew the doors off expectations because of much higher investment and spending in the technology than previously thought.

This week’s note includes our comments on earnings from Kohl’s (KSS). Macy’s (M) and Duluth Holdings’ (DLTH) report on June 1. Please note that the monthly edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter will be published on Wednesday, May 31, and the Catalyst Report will be published on Friday, June 2.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious but stay tuned. The market remains very narrow, with a few powerful stocks but the vast, vast majority of names either in no man’s land or acting poorly. For potential leaders, we see many that had been perking up before running into a wall this week—but not (yet) selling off abnormally. If these names can hold soon and resume their upmoves, we’ll like to add at least a couple (maybe more) to the Model Portfolio. Tonight, though, given the extreme narrowness of the advance, we’ll grit our teeth and sit tight, holding about three-quarters in cash and see if these potential leaders can get moving.

As a reminder, this trade is for the CVX position in the Growth/Value Portfolio, not the CVX position that resides in our Dogs of the Dow Portfolio. I have a CVX position in both, as both portfolios are looked at as separate entities to keep things mechanical and consistent. However, for most subscribers, it is unnecessary to have double exposure. Just understand that I will be treating each CVX position as two separate entities. I hope this clears up any confusion.

I am buying back out short calls today and immediately selling more premium. The underlying stock position is up 7.06% since we initiated the position. Our CSCO position is up 19.42% over the same time frame.

NerdWallet (NRDS): Sell A Quarter and Hold the Rest

Moving Conduent (CNDT) to Sell

It’s expiration week and we need to roll a few of our positions. Expect to see several trade alerts over the next few days as we buy back our short calls and immediately sell more short calls (collecting premium) for the March expiration cycle.

SPY continues to rally and has now pushed through our short 415 call strike. As a result, I am going to take off the trade. I will be following up this trade with a few opening trades as we need to start looking towards March expiration for premium-selling opportunities.

Earnings Updates: ABNB, NRDS, TIXT, SEDG, UDMY

Exscientia (EXAI) pulled back yesterday but is recovering this morning.

We still have a few February positions in our Dogs of the Dow portfolio that need rolling. I’m starting with DOW today and will roll the rest of our February positions into March over the next two days.

SPY continues to rally and has now pushed through our short 415 call strike. As a result, I am going to take off the trade. I will be following up this trade with a few opening trades as we need to start looking towards March expiration for premium-selling opportunities.

Our WBA calls are due to expire today, so I want to buy them back for a few pennies and immediately sell more premium. JPM and AMGN are due to expire next week, but most, if not all of the premium has left the respective calls. Therefore, I want to buy back our short calls and like WBA, immediately sell more calls.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.