Cabot Options Institute Quant Trader – Alert (DIA)
Dow Jones ETF (DIA)
With the DIA trading for 338.17, I want to place a short-term bear call spread going out 42 days and outside of the expected range to the upside, or 353. My intent is to take off the trade well before the March 24, 2023, expiration date.
IV Rank: 17.1
Expected Move (Range): The expected move (range) for the March 24, 2023, expiration cycle is from 323 to 353.
Sell to Open DIA March 24, 2023, 355 call strike
Buy to Open DIA March 24, 2023, 360 call strike for a total of $0.70 (As always, the price of the spread will vary, so please adjust accordingly.)
Delta of spread: -0.07
Probability of Profit: 83.44%
Probability of Touch: 31.58%
Total net credit: $0.70
Total risk per spread: $4.30
Max return: 16.3%
Since we know how much we stand to make and lose prior to order entry, we can precisely define our position size on every trade we place. Position size is the most important factor when managing risk, so keeping each trade at a reasonable level allows not only the Law of Large Numbers to work in your favor … it also allows you to sleep well at night.
I tend to set a stop-loss that sits 1 to 2 times my original credit. Since I’m selling the 355/360 bear call spread for roughly $0.70, if my bear call spread reaches $1.40 to $2.10, I will exit the trade. As always, I will keep you updated on the status of the position as it progresses and send any necessary updates as needed.