Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the October 2022 issue.

Following the sharp drop in stocks due to fears of a major policy error, we see an opportunity for subscribers to add to their existing positions in many of our recommended names at very attractive prices.

Is a deep recession likely? Perhaps we are instead experiencing an old-fashioned inventory cycle.

Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.

I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

The month of September was flat-out ugly for the market as the S&P 500 fell 9.3%, its worst monthly drop since March 2020 (Covid). And the numbers were similarly negative this last week as the S&P 500 and Dow lost 3%, and the Nasdaq fell another 2.7%.

The month of September was flat out ugly for the market as the S&P 500 fell 9.3%, its worst monthly drop since March 2020 (Covid). And the numbers were similarly negative this last week as the S&P 500 and Dow lost 3%, and the Nasdaq fell another 2.7%.

This week is a complete dud when it comes to earnings announcements (which is why this report is so short this week), but no worries, earnings start in earnest the following week with the big banks (JPM, C, WFC, MS, etc.) all due to report on October 14. Moreover, this Friday we will be having our first subscriber-exclusive webinar at noon EST. In addition to going over several trades in the aforementioned bank stocks using our iron condor approach, I will also be introducing my step-by-step approach to short strangles with a few potential trades.

The market continues to suffer mightily. And while most portfolios across the investment universe have followed suit, our Quant Trader portfolio continues to display why it’s a necessity to have exposure to options selling strategies.

Our win ratio stands at 90.9% and our cumulative return stands at over 40%.



We still have one open position for the October expiration cycle, our IWM iron condor, and if the Russell 2000 (IWM) can manage to climb higher this week we should have the opportunity to tack on even more gains. Moreover, there are 47 days left in the November expiration cycle, so I intend to open a few positions for some exposure, but I want to maintain a conservative stance.

Stocks were basically neutral in the last week, with some signs of life bubbling up beneath the surface. In fact, most of our stocks had good weeks – and a couple of them were very good. Still, it remains highly volatile out there, and the selling isn’t necessarily over. And that makes it a good time to add another contrarian play. This week, that means adding our first (ever?) fund, which takes advantage of the fast growth happening outside U.S. borders – and it’s severely undervalued. It’s a recent recommendation from Cabot Explorer chief analyst Carl Delfeld.

Details inside.

As volatility picks up in the market, so too do the dramatic headlines, and we’re starting to see that now—but once again, nothing has really changed with the evidence: The trends of the major indexes are still pointed down, and most strength is being rejected, both of which argue for a continued defensive stance. As for rays of light, we’re still seeing a fair amount of names holding up well, as well as some minor positive divergences. All in all, our antennae remain up—we think upside surprises are possible—but our Market Monitor remains at a level 3.


This week’s list has another crop of resilient stocks from a variety of different areas, from medical to energy to restaurants. Our Top Pick is a familiar growth stock that went through the wringer and is now base-building normally despite the market’s grumpiness.

The continuation of the market sell-off led to another slow trading week as I decided it was best to simply sit on our hands.

As I stated in my Quant Trader advisory today, the investor’s fear gauge, otherwise known as the VIX, hit strong overhead resistance last week while simultaneously hitting a short-term overbought state. Typically, this type of situation leads to a reversion to the mean, especially in the few, reliable volatility products like the VIX.



The VIX hit 35 before pulling back the latter part of the week, even as the S&P 500 continued to plummet, another sign that sellers have exhausted themselves over the short-term. Which is why this week is pivotal for not only the VIX, but the market overall.

All three major U.S. indexes were up around 2% yesterday as the Bank of England stepped in to stabilize the pound, but the recovery looks fragile as sentiment remains mixed at best in the short term. Explorer stocks drifted lower this past week and we remain defensive looking for asymmetric plays where the upside potential exceeds downside risk.

Markets go up and down. Economies boom and bust. Investors get scared and they get greedy. But one of the few constants in an ever-changing investment landscape is the need for income. And investor demand for income is growing as the fastest growing segment of the population is 65 and older and retired.

The demand for the very best income stocks should remain strong. Also, during sideways and down markets, dividends account for most of the total market return. In problematic decades, dividends have almost completely offset market price declines.

It’s true that dividend stocks can still fall in a down market. But the long-term trend for the market is higher. History clearly shows that bear markets are the best time to get in cheap ahead of the next bull market. Meanwhile, dividends provide an income and less volatility while you wait.

Sentiment remains extremely negative towards the cannabis sector and the overall stock market.

You can look at this situation and get depressed. Or you can see it as an opportunity to buy cheaper shares for the long term. Being a contrarian, I prefer to do the latter. I think both cannabis stocks and the broad market are buyable right now. And that’s why I am adding two new positions to the Sector Xpress Cannabis Advisor portfolio today, and rate all our existing stocks “Buys.”

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the October 2022 issue.

As stock prices tumble under the twin pressures of rising interest rates and the likely arrival of an economic downturn, just about every new stock pick is destined to be a disappointment. How does one select stocks in such an environment? While most fresh ideas will be near-term duds, there is an important purpose to picking new ideas. And, one doesn’t need to buy full positions right away. We screen for low P/E stocks on depressed 2023 earnings, with estimates for those earnings that are increasing. These make good stocks in which to take starter positions.

We also sorted through stocks with high dividend yields and highlight two picks and two pans (with enticing yields yet have serious dividend risks).

Our feature recommendation this month is Dow (DOW). Its shares have been sold by fearful investors, but the company’s low valuation doesn’t recognize the improvements in its financial strength and cost structure since the dark days of early 2020, nor the attractive yet sustainable dividend yield.

We at Cabot Micro-cap Insider are long-term investors and try not to time the market. However, we are aware that there is seasonality to market returns. You have probably heard the term, “Sell in May and Go Away.” That’s because on average, the six months from May to October are the worst performing months for the S&P 500 Index.

It’s earnings season. And it’s a weird one.

Today’s note includes earnings updates, ratings changes, the podcast and the Catalyst Report.

Even though stocks have been wobbly today the last week has been very constructive for our portfolio. As of mid-day today, our portfolio is up an average of 4% from last Thursday’s close, and only two positions are down (neither by more than 2%).

It remains a very tricky environment for growth stocks, with most names near new highs finding sellers and earnings reactions (so far) being underwhelming (Pinterest is now on a tight leash). That said, we do see a lot of high-quality setups, so we’re ready to put some money to work, but we need to see buyers actually step up before stepping further into the meat-grinder environment.

The market just keeps marching higher despite increasing skepticism.

When looking at an investment idea, investors may want to replicate this intake process, tweaked of course for a clearly different (and less urgent) task. By using a consistent process, regardless of whether the idea comes from a friend, that off-beat relative, an investment broker or a newsletter, you can better categorize and screen incoming ideas.

The big news this week is taxes. President Biden proposed to raise the capital gains income tax on long-term capital gains from 20% to 39.6% for millionaires. Who knows if this law will actually get passed. I have my doubts. For years, Republican and Democratic politicians have tried unsuccessfully to close the carried interest loophole which allows private equity and hedge fund managers to treat profit windfalls as long-term capital gains not ordinary income.

Today’s note includes earnings updates and the podcast.

In the last 48 hours I have received two unsolicited offers to buy property we own. The first was for our second home in Vermont, a handyman’s special I bought in 2004 and sank nearly a decade of blood, sweat and tears into while completing a significant remodel, most of which I did myself. Now that it is pretty much done (as far as any house ever is) I’m in no mood to sell. We use it frequently to ski, and like knowing we have a store of value if our college savings plans go awry.

I believe the market’s churn over the last month or so is understandable given its sharp rebound over the last year. Investors and analysts alike are now assessing valuations of stocks relative to expected growth. In some cases it is giving pause; in others it is spurring action.

The market still looks strong. But it’s getting a little harder to figure out.

Today is the expiration of March options, including five positions in the Cabot Profit Booster portfolio. And I’m happy to report, despite the market being a bit “crazy” the last three weeks, four of our positions will very likely expire today for profits ranging from 4.5% to 18.6%, and one will expire mostly at breakeven. Here is the full breakdown:

Hedge funds are diving into this e-commerce company’s shares; their interest is at an all-time high.

This preferred stock has above average yields, and is issued by an insurance company that beat quarterly earnings estimates by almost 11%.

We are moving Volkswagen AG (VWAGY) to a SELL.

The good news is that one of our stocks, Trulieve (TCNNF), closed at a record high yesterday. The bad news is that none of our other stocks did. The sector as a whole remains in the moderate correction that began five weeks ago, and I continue to think that we are likely to see lower prices in the near future.

This home goods retailer is getting ready to launch eight new private-label brands. The stock is showing good momentum, as investors applaud this news.

It’s been a week or so of comparatively calm market action, which has given us a chance to evaluate how our current roster of stocks is behaving. With that evidence, and a new batch of stocks coming tomorrow in the March Issue, we’re going to step aside from a few of our weaker performing positions today.

This mining company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.04 last quarter, earning $0.18 per share.

This lumber company reported fourth quarter earnings of $366 million on sales of $1.689 billion, and recently completed its acquisition of Norbord, Inc.

The shares of this pizza franchiser were just upgraded at RBC Capital to ‘Outperform.’

A new CEO is driving this insurance company to higher profits. The shares have a current dividend yield of 3.15%, paid semi-annually.

Three days does not make a trend in any way, shape or form. But, rejuvenated by a stalling/pullback in yields, growth stock bulls have pulled themselves up off the mat and appear ready to defend their turf – at least for now.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.