The Fed has raised the Fed Funds rate six times this year to combat inflation and the last four times at a 0.75% clip. The current 4% rate is the highest in well over a decade. But inflation hasn’t budged even after the rate hikes, a shrinking GDP, and a bear market.

At the November meeting, the Fed Chairmen stated that the previous 4.5% to 5.0% Fed Funds goal no longer applies. It will have to go higher. The U.S. economy is resilient, but it will eventually give way to the forces aligned against it. It is almost certain that there will be a recession in 2023.

Meanwhile, for the first time since forever, you can get investment-grade, fixed-rate investments that pay 5% or even 6%, for now. But recessions put downward pressure on longer interest rates as loan demand dries up.

In this issue, I highlight a rare opportunity to lock in a high fixed rate while it lasts and add balance and diversification to the portfolio. Let’s not miss it.

Today, I’m recommending a financial that is taking advantage of a special opportunity that is only available to small community banks.

Key points:

• Due to a special program (Emergency Capital Investment Program), earnings are expected to grow by 250% over the next three years.
• Cheap valuation. Stock trades at current P/E multiple of 13.2x.
• Downside is limited given high cash levels on bank balance sheet.

All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!

Last week’s “big” market-moving events (Federal Reserve and Jobs Report) brought further selling as the S&P 500 fell 3.25%, the Dow lost 2.25%, and the Nasdaq dropped 5.88%.

It’s an extremely pivotal week for stocks, as the midterm elections and latest round of inflation data could go a long way toward determining how markets will finish out this difficult year. In the meantime, we’re adding the rare growth stock that has held up well amidst all the ups and downs of late, which should bode well for the coming months. It’s a retail favorite of Cabot Growth Investor Chief Analyst Mike Cintolo – and thus may look familiar to some of you.

Details inside.

The major indexes quickly retreated after the prior couple of good weeks, with growth-oriented areas falling the most, a lot of stocks being rejected near resistance and some old winners being taken out and shot. Despite that, there are some green shoots out there—by the letter of the law, some broad indexes (like small- and mid-caps) are in intermediate-term uptrends, and we’re also seeing some sectors assert themselves, especially in the commodity space. We’re not bullish, and will leave our Market Monitor at a level 4, though our overall advice remains basically unchanged: Hold plenty of cash, honor your stops and, if you do some buying, keep it small.


This week’s list is again heavy on commodity-type names, though we’re also seeing a few recent earnings winners that have some growth to them. Our Top Pick straddles the line between growth and commodity and is one of the few names to move out to recently all-time highs.

It was another good week for our positions. And now it’s time to finally add a few more positions to the mix. I plan on adding two new positions this week: one to the Income Wheel Portfolio, the other will be a short-term trade with roughly 45-60 days until expiration. There are several good opportunities from our weekly watch list that I’ll be sifting through with the intent to add something mid-week, after the elections have passed.

Last week, prior to the Fed announcement, I decided to close out our two remaining positions for the November expiration cycle. While, in hindsight, holding on through the event would have been the best path for maximizing profits, we did manage to lock in two small gains.

The returns makes it 14 profitable trades out of 15 for a cumulative return of 71.3% since starting Quant Trader back in the beginning of June. Not bad given the wildly volatile market we’ve experienced over the past five months.

This week we will ramp back up opening new positions, this time for the December expiration cycle. I want to stay flat until the elections are over but intend on adding at least three new positions over the next week or so. Stay tuned!

The upcoming week of earnings is a fairly slow one, with only a few real choices on the docket. Disney (DIS) is definitely the highlight of the week and the one I will be focusing on.

However, the following week we see lots of the big boys due to report, including Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and several others. As I stated in the last webinar, I expect to see at least three, if not more, trades that week as earnings season slows down significantly afterwards.

As for this past week, we were able to get out for a small 2.7% loss in SBUX. So far this earnings season, we are averaging a one-day return of roughly 4% per trade, or what has been 4% per week for this earnings cycle. Certainly nothing to write home about, but respectable nonetheless given the overall performance of the market. I anticipate that we will make at least four more trades, if not more, before the earnings cycle slows down in two weeks.

The Fed’s latest roundhouse to the market this week has caused another round of selling, but we think more damage was done to sentiment to this point than the evidence; we remain defensive and patient, but we’re also keeping a close eye on things, as a few good days (and some real breakouts from potential leading stocks) could give us something to work with.

In the meantime, we sit with just two stocks but are spending many hours filling up our watch list and monitoring earnings season for new potential leaders. We’re eager to add some exposure, but we’ll wait for things to stabilize first; in the meantime, check out all our latest thoughts in tonight’s issue.

With market jitters returning following the Fed’s meeting yesterday, we’re going back to a segment that’s served us well so far this year – MedTech.

Today’s portfolio addition is another highly specialized company that’s doing things far better than the competition and growing by over 30%.

Enjoy!

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the November 2022 issue.

While sharp declines in hyper-growth tech stocks to below their pre-pandemic prices may seem like the proverbial “end of days” has arrived, the fall-off is more a return to normal following a period of vast excesses.

Tomorrow afternoon traders will get another look at how the Federal Reserve perceives the inflation situation, as well as its plans to manage interest rate hikes going forward. Below are the expectations in the options market, the bond market, and from a couple Wall Street firms.

There is a Fed meeting today. The ultimate oracle of wisdom will bestow their current thinking upon anxious traders.

Before we get into this week’s update, I want to share a few thoughts on my favorite free investing resource: Twitter. From 2006 to 2018, I worked at Eaton Vance and then at Citi, and didn’t really see the use for Twitter. It just seemed like a bunch of people arguing with one another.

Cyclical stocks are getting creamed today. Energy is down the most. But industrials, materials, and financials are getting hit too.

After declining 6% in June, gold enters what is historically one of its most lackadaisical months from a seasonal standpoint.

Today’s note includes ratings changes, the podcast and the Catalyst Report. We publish the Catalyst Report on the Friday after each monthly issue of the Cabot Turnaround Letter.

The S&P 500 closed out the second quarter of 2021 at a record high advancing for a fifth consecutive quarter. Meanwhile the Dow and Nasdaq closed just below records and each of these indexes recorded more than 18 record closes during the first half of the year. Accelerating economic growth is the key to keeping things moving forward.

The second quarter ends today. GDP growth is forecasted to be 8.6% for the quarter, one of the best on record. Earnings for the S&P 500 is expected to grow over 60% over last year’s second quarter.

Encouraging signs for the Greentech sector this week in the market, as we’ve seen a good push over the 200-day moving average in the Wilderhill Clean Energy Index, and the move appears to be sticking better than the prior test in early June.

In our continuing series on deciding how many positions to hold in a stock portfolio, let’s borrow a page from Major League Baseball (MLB). The methods that these teams use managing their players can be applied to investment portfolios.

We have a lot to cover this week, so I’m going to use my intro to cover one company: BBX Capital (BBXIA). Last week, BBX announced that it increased its tender offer to buy back shares up to 8.00 per share, up from 6.75. Currently, the stock is trading at 7.96 and it makes sense to buy shares up to 8.00 as you can immediately sell the shares back to the company at a profit.

There’s good news. The S&P 500 has made a new all-time high. The Nasdaq achieved a new high on Monday. That’s the first new high for the tech-heavy index since early February.

The dominant theme for precious and base metals in June has been the dollar short squeeze. This month’s sizable rally in the U.S. dollar index (USD) put heavy selling pressure on most industrial and precious metals that are priced in dollars. Gold and silver pulled back around 7% during the dollar’s rally, while copper suffered a 13% decline and platinum led the way down with an 18% drop.

It’s been a brutal week for growth stocks, and that’s continuing today. As of 11 am, it’s another horrible day for growth stocks—the Dow is up 50 points, but the Nasdaq is down 80 points and the average stock we own or are watching is off more than 2%.

This recent IPO will give you an entrée into cryptocurrencies. But be aware, it is a speculative trade and needs to be limited to a small portion of your portfolio.

The big news in the marijuana industry this week is that the Tilray/Aphria merger is complete, turning these two Canadian firms into the biggest marijuana company in the world—for now.

Cardlytics (CDLX) reported last night that Q1 revenue grew by 17% to $53.2 million (beating by $2 million) and that adjusted EPS came in at -$0.34, a drop from -$0.26 in the year ago quarter (and $0.03 shy of expectations). Overall, the quarter showed continued improvement in the business as revenue, Q1 billings ($76.3 million) and adjusted contribution ($24.3 million) were all either at or slightly ahead of consensus estimates.

In the past month, five analysts have increased their EPS estimates for this royalty company.

The market has been a little iffy over the last five or so sessions. This action, coming on the back of great earnings from mega cap tech stocks last week, but not great reactions, suggests a more conservative stance is appropriate right now for some of our high-growth names.

The market has been a little iffy over the last five or so sessions. This action, coming on the back of great earnings from mega cap tech stocks last week, but not great reactions, suggests a more conservative stance is appropriate right now for some of our high-growth names.

There’s still a chance earnings season could save the day, but so far, most reports have led to selling and after seeing many growth stocks set up in recent weeks, the bears are beginning to come out of the woodwork again.

This fertilizer company beat earnings estimates by double last quarter, posting EPS of $0.39. The shares have a current dividend yield of 3.33%, paid quarterly.

This computer company is getting ready for a big spin-off which should boost its shares.

Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) reported after the close yesterday that Q1 revenue rose by 53% to $31.2 million (beating by $2.5 million) and adjusted EPS rose to $0.03 from $0.01 in the year-ago quarter (missing by $0.03). That pace of revenue growth was up from 48% in the quarter ended December 31, and well above the 13% revenue growth rate reported in the year-ago quarter.

This closed-end fund has a current annual dividend yield of 5.46%, paid quarterly.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.