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Issues
Now that was an interesting week, as countless sectors imploded (banks/REITs/airlines/energy) while at the same time money rushed into mega-cap technology. By week’s end the S&P 500 had risen 1.43%, the Dow had fallen 0.15%, and the Nasdaq way outperformed, having gained 4.41%.

In the March Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we take a look at what’s been unfolding in the financial system and consider implications for the FOMC’s meeting and subsequent rate hike decision next week.

Suffice to say, buying a bunch of stocks into the current uncertainty doesn’t seem like the best idea. We’ll add a few partial positions, but the bulk of this month’s new ideas are going on our Watch List.

We’ll take things as they come and consider plucking names off this list as things develop.

Never a dull moment!
Led by the meltdown in the financial sector, the market had an awful week. The numbers weren’t pretty as the S&P 500 fell 4.76%, the Dow lost 4.45%, and the Nasdaq declined 4.16%.
What was promising action two weeks ago got off to a bad start last week, but it was the late-week collapse in regional banks that caused the market to hit one giant air pocket. Clearly, at this point, the intermediate-term trend has turned down and the broad market is under a lot of pressure; we’re not in the business of catching falling knives, so we’re in the better-safe-than-sorry camp. That said, there are still many potential leaders in a variety of fields that are pulling back sharply, but normally—including some (like many from last weeks issue) that are hardly giving any ground at all. We’re moving our Market Monitor to a level 5—but also taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, which means giving some resilient names a chance.

This week’s list has a collection of mostly resilient names, with some steady actors but also a few true growth stories, too. Our Top Pick is a young upstart that’s higher risk, so keep positions small and look for weakness.
All Quiet on the Western Front is an ironically titled movie about war that won several awards at last night’s Oscars. It could loosely describe the last few days in the U.S. stock market too, as the collapse of three major banks (and counting?) has abruptly sent stocks tumbling back down into bear market territory and brought anxiety, uncertainty and volatility back to the forefront. So today, we’re selling our one bank stock, plus one other shaky growth stock, but making room for a cookie-cutter retail company that’s on solid ground. It’s a longtime favorite of Cabot Growth Investor Chief Analyst Mike Cintolo.
All is well in Quant Trader land. Our two positions are currently in great shape with the potential to take some decent profits off the table. We still have 39 days left until the April 21, 2023, expiration cycle, so there is a good chance that we take both of our open trades off the table for profits and look to immediately sell more premium, especially with the recent pop in implied volatility.
After the recent pullback, the All-Weather portfolio is now up 0.55%, with the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) doing the heavy lifting, up 7.19% since it was introduced to the portfolio back on 6/15/23. Besides DBC, we’ve rolled all of our positions to the April 21, 2023 expiration cycle. Our DBC 24 calls are due to expire this week. I will most likely allow them to carry through expiration and sell more calls after expiration, unless we have an opportunity to buy back our DBC 24 calls for $0.05 or less.
Earnings season is officially behind us. However, that doesn’t mean that we won’t have an opportunity or two rear its head on a weekly basis. This week FedEx (FDX) presents a potential opportunity. The options are highly liquid and the IV rank sits above 48. Moreover, we have the ability to create a 42.5-point range around the expected move of 27.5 points. We won’t know for certain if a trade will be placed until Thursday, but all looks promising at the moment.
Not much has changed from last week. We are loaded up in the Income Wheel Portfolio, although I wouldn’t mind stepping into a few new positions. If I do decide to add a position or two to the portfolio, one will have a low IV and the other will be the exact opposite, with a high IV. The reason, as stated in the past, is that I like to diversify the overall beta of my positions so that our overall level of risk is balanced.
Led by the meltdown in the financial sector, the market had an awful week. The numbers weren’t pretty as the S&P 500 fell 4.76%, the Dow lost 4.45%, and the Nasdaq declined 4.16%.
Led by the meltdown in the financial sector, the market had an awful week. The numbers weren’t pretty as the S&P 500 fell 4.76%, the Dow lost 4.45%, and the Nasdaq declined 4.16%.
The biggest story of the past few weeks has been the Fed’s renewed jawboning for higher-for-longer interest rates, with the Fed Chief even saying hikes could re-accelerate this month (0.5% instead of 0.25%, etc.) if economic data remains too hot. Indeed, since the start of February, Treasury rates have risen an average of three-quarters of a point or more, while futures are starting to price in another 1.25% of hikes this year, up from 0.5% expected just a month ago. Translation: A lot of rate-hike worry has been priced in during the past few weeks.
Updates
Stocks failed to even bounce today despite all the selling of late. At day’s end, the Dow was off 171 points and the Nasdaq dropped 19 points.
It’s a new year, and a new attitude. Investors tend to sober up after weeks of holiday slacking and refocus on the market. What are they saying?
The market finished the year strong, with the S&P 500 up 26.9%. And so far, 2022 is off to a good start.
In two days, the S&P 500 has set two new all-time highs. Last year’s momentum is spilling over so far. But will it last?
It’s a new year, and a new attitude. Investors tend to sober up after weeks of holiday slacking and refocus on the market. What are they saying?
It’s the worry that just won’t go away, and while it’s disconcerting to equity investors, gold is clearly benefiting from it.
As we approach the final trading day of 2021, we see a market in a period of relative calm after what felt like a very volatile November and December, especially for those invested in individual stocks.
It’s the end of remarkable year. With just two more full market days left, the S&P 500 is up 28% for 2021.
Another year has come and gone. I can’t believe it. They never used to go by this fast. Anyway, it was a terrific year for stocks. The market is up 28% for the year.
Greentech continues to sit on the bearish side of things, but it’s holding the bottom of the trading range the sector has been in since May 15.
This week’s Friday Update is brief, with no earnings reports or ratings changes. And, with the long holiday weekend just ahead, there was little news on our recommended companies.
Since May, Greentech has traded in a 20-point range, between 70 and 90 in the benchmark we look to for sentiment, the Wilderhill Clean Energy Index. On Monday, we saw a break below support to 68, enough to cause concern we could be in store for an extended correction.
Alerts
Today is the expiration of five of our covered call positions, and I’m not going to sugar coat it, it was a choppy month for the market, and our trades. Importantly, we are going to exit several positions today.
In the past 30 days, four analysts have boosted EPS forecasts for this construction and manufacturing supplier.
The top five holdings in this ETF are: The Estee Lauder Companies Inc Class A (EL, 3.38% of assets); Costco Wholesale Corp (COST, 3.30%); Kimberly-Clark Corp (KMB, 3.29%); Clorox Co (CLX, 3.25%); and Church & Dwight Co Inc (CHD, 3.21%).
With a new batch of stocks being added to our portfolio tomorrow and a few of our current names looking just OK we’re going to sell three stocks today.
This bank is innovating with the help of its Laurel Road digital banking platform. It has a current dividend yield of 3.58%, paid quarterly.
**NOTE: Due to time constraints from the Cabot Wealth Summit, the Cabot Early Opportunities issue scheduled for Wednesday, August 18, 2021 will instead be published on Thursday August 19.**
Porch Group (PRCH) reported yesterday afternoon with results coming in ahead of management guidance and significant contributions from acquired companies. Despite the strong high-level numbers, the stock is selling off today and we’re going to step aside with the modest profit we still have (around 25%).
This bank is innovating with the help of its Laurel Road digital banking platform. It has a current dividend yield of 3.58%, paid quarterly.
This software company posted EPS of $0.16 per share in its recent quarter, beating analysts’ estimates of $0.14 per share. Revenues of $209.74 million also beat by 3.41%.
This tech stock is expected to grow earnings by more than 28% this year. The current annual dividend yield is 2.15%, paid quarterly.
Shares of this utility were recently upgraded by B of A Securities, to ‘Buy.’ The shares have a current annual dividend yield of 3.33%, paid quarterly.
This afternoon we are moving Albertsons (ACI) from BUY to SELL.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.