November 3, 2021

Halloween is one of my favorite holidays of the year.

There is minimal preparation, no gifts to get, no travel – you just get to celebrate with friends & family and watch your kids have the time of their lives.

And this year did not disappoint. It was especially good because Halloween was on a Sunday (i.e. not a school day) so we could get together with family and friends earlier than we would have otherwise and the weather was perfect (not too cold, not too warm).

While I did have a bit of a candy hangover on Monday, it felt nice to get back to work.

The market is expensive. As you can see below, the S&P 500 is at an all-time high price to sales multiple.

Yes, interest rates are low so relative to the alternatives, perhaps stocks look attractive.

But on an absolute basis, the market is expensive.

But I often reminder myself to heed the advice of Jesse Livermore, “Don’t fight the tape.”

The market is currently up 20% on the year through October. The eight previous times the market was up this much or more, it finished higher every time.

If past is prologue, the market is likely to finish the year strong.

This week, we have a decent number of updates on our recommendations, and so I’m going to highlight them here before providing more details below.

Highlights:

• Tang Capital’s standstill agreement expires at the end of this week, and traders appear to be nibbling on Aptevo (APVO) anticipating that Tang will continue his effort to buy shares of the company in the open market.
• Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) dropped this week, but it was because the ex-dividend date passed for the recent distribution.
• I’m upgrading Medexus (MEDXF) to BUY given recent positive developments.
• The P10 Holdings (PX) shares in my account remain in limbo (I can’t trade them) given the recent reverse stock split and ticker change. I did have a chance to speak to Schwab and they believe the shares should be tradeable by the end of the week.
• I’m downgrading Stabilis Solutions (SLNG) to SELL. The idea is not working, and the company recently announced some turnover in its management ranks. Time to move on.

The next issue of Cabot Micro-Cap Insider will be published on November 10, 2021. As always, if you have any questions, please email me at rich@cabotwealth.com.

Changes This Week
Upgrading Medexus (MEDXF) to Buy under 3.50
Downgrading Stabilis Solutions (SLNG) to SELL

Updates
Aptevo (APVO) has started to perk up. Tang Capital’s standstill agreement expires at the end of this week, and traders appear to be nibbling on Aptevo (APVO) anticipating that Tang will continue his effort to buy shares of the company in the open market. As a reminder, Tang owns ~40% of shares outstanding and previously offered to buy the company for $50 per share. From a fundamental perspective, Aptevo remains undervalued. The market is currently valuing the stock as if its pipeline is worth negative value (currently -$15MM). This doesn’t make sense as Aptevo’s main drug, APVO436, has shown promising data and the company has a pipeline of other assets. This is a high-risk/reward trade because the upside could be substantial, but downside could also be substantial if it continues to burn cash with little to show for it. We will see preliminary phase II data later this year, which could be a nice catalyst. Original Write-up. Buy under 25.00

Atento S.A. (ATTO) recently disclosed that it suffered a brief cyberattack although it appears to be a minor incident which should not meaningfully impact revenue generation. I expect a strong quarter to be announced shortly. Atento last reported earnings in August. In the quarter, revenue increased 22% to $382MM, beating consensus by 4%. EBITDA increased 123% y/y to $50.7MM. EBITDA margin increased to 13.3%, up from 7.1% a year ago. Despite the strong performance, ATTO is still only trading at 3.9x my estimate for 2022 EBITDA. Peers such as Concentrix (CNXC) trade at 10x or higher. Original Write-up. Buy under 30.00

BBX Capital (BBXIA) disclosed in September in an 8-K that it is increasing its share buyback authorization from $10MM to $20MM. The first $10MM authorization was used to buyback $8.3MM worth of shares, the additional $10MM authorization will enable the company to continue these buybacks. Further, the company announced that it recognized a $7.7MM cash distribution from a property that they had held at a $2.1MM valuation. This is good news and implies that book value per share ($17.53) may be understated. I recently moved up my price target to 12. Here’s how I’m thinking about my new valuation: The company has $7.44 per share of net cash/notes receivable on its balance sheet and I’m giving it 100% credit for that (given recent shareholder-friendly actions). I’m assuming the remaining business is worth 5x this year’s free cash flow. Note, a $12 target is still at a significant discount to book value per share ($17.53). Given strong performance, I’m increasing my buy under limit to 9.50. I would recommend trying to buy the stock around its 50-day moving average as that has historically been a timely entry point. Original Write-up. Buy under 9.50

Cipher Pharma (CPHRF) is a cheap, Canadian specialty pharma company that has a promising pipeline. Despite strong potential, the stock trades at a draconian valuation. Insider ownership is high, and insiders have been buying the stock in the open market. Further, the company is buying back its own shares in the open market. Downside protection is high given net cash on its balance sheet and strong free cash flow generation. My price target of 2.50 implies good upside over the next 12 months. Original Write-up. Buy under 2.00

Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP) moved slightly lower this week as it passed its ex-dividend date for its next distribution. The distribution of $0.50 will be paid out on November 11, 2021. If we annualize the distribution, the stock is trading at a 10.3% dividend yield. I think the dividend will be increasing next quarter as energy prices continue to rise. Given higher energy prices, I recently increased my price target on DMLP to 25.00. The stock has run sharply, but I would recommend buying it around its 50-day moving average (currently ~17.50). Over time, I will increase my buy limit. Original Write-up. Buy under 17.50

Drive Shack (DS) recently pre-announced revenue of $75MM which was slightly below consensus. We will get more details when the company reports earnings in November. Drive Shack also mentioned in its press release that it has successfully opened Puttery in The Colony, Texas, and initial reviews look pretty good. I continue to like the stock. At its current valuation, Drive Shack’s share price gives minimal value to the strong upside potential from new Puttery venues. Finally, alignment is high as management and directors own 16.3% of shares outstanding and have recently bought in the open market. My price target is 6.00. Original Write-up. Buy under 4.00

Epsilon Energy (EPSN) has performed well as natural gas prices have rallied. I recently spoke to the CEO of the company and learned more about Epsilon’s natural gas hedges. The company has two-thirds of its product hedged in the $3/Mcf range, but one-third has exposure to the spot market. From November ’21 to March ’22, 30% of production is hedged at ~$3.34/Mcf, but 70% of production is exposed to the soaring spot market. I see significant upside over the next 12 months as the company benefits from high natural gas prices. Original Write-up. Buy under 5.50

FlexShopper (FPAY) has no news this week. The stock saw strong insider buying in August in the $2.50 to $2.90 range following a positive earnings release. In the quarter, revenue grew 25% y/y to $30.7MM. Looking out to the rest of the year, strong growth should continue as the company is expanding its pilot program with an undisclosed national retailer and has added a second national retailer to its pilot program. My 12-month price target for FlexShopper is 4.70. Original Write-up. Buy under 2.50

IDT Corporation (IDT) recently reported a great quarter with strong growth across the board. Mobile Top-up revenue increased 41% y/y; this is the sixth consecutive quarter of 20%+ revenue growth. National Retail Solutions (NRS) revenue increased 76% y/y, with performance being driven by an increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) and terminal growth. Management expects continued upside in ARPU, driven by merchant services, advertising, and data. Net2phone subscription revenue increased 46% y/y, with 80%+ gross margin. Lastly, Traditional communications reported its third consecutive quarter of revenue growth and generated $29mm of EBITDA. Original Write-up. Buy under 45.00

Leatt (LEAT) Corporation is my latest recommendation. There was no news this week. It is a South African company that designs and manufactures protective equipment for motor bike riders. Despite a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% from 2017 to 2020, and an EPS CAGR of 165%, the stock trades at a forward P/E multiple of just 13.2x. Insiders own 45% of shares outstanding, and I expect strong growth ahead. My price target of 36 implies significant upside ahead. Original Write-up. Buy under 27.

Liberated Syndication (LSYN) recently announced that it hired a new full-time CFO. This is a positive as the company had been operating without a CFO or CEO. However, I do have strong confidence in President Laurie Sims, who has been leading the business. The stock has been languishing of late, and I recently wrote an article that addresses why that might be the case. In short, it has become very difficult to buy companies that are not current on their financials or don’t report their financials to the SEC or OTCmarkets.com due to an SEC rule change (15c2-11). I believe this is pressuring Libsyn’s stock lower. But I also believe it represents an opportunity as when the company reports its restated financials it will show a company growing revenue at ~17%. At its current valuation of 2.5x 2021 revenue, it looks very attractive. Original Write-up. Buy under 5.00

Medexus Pharma (MEDXF) had positive news this week as the company announced that it has scheduled a Type A meeting with the FDA to review its plans to address the FDA’s concerns regarding Treosulfan. Recently management has also reiterated that it has enough liquidity to get to the Treosulfan approval date (target middle to end of next year). The way that I’m thinking about it is Medexus should be a $10+ stock if Treosulfan is approved. I think there is at least a 50% chance it is approved next year. In the case that it is not approved, I don’t think there is much downside to the stock as the base business (as long as IXINITY reverts to growth) easily supports the current valuation. As such, I’m upgrading the stock to Buy under 3.50. Original Write-up. Buy under 3.50

Performant Financial (PFMT) had no news on the week. Following a strong quarter in August, the company raised $40MM of equity. While I’m disappointed in the dilution, it will improve the company’s balance sheet substantially and allow it to accelerate growth. All in all, the investment case is still on track. My price target decreases a little bit in the medium term to 6.60 (due to the dilution) but, longer term, I think this stock could trade over 10. Original Write-up. Buy under 5.00

P10 Holdings (PX) recently priced its IPO/up-listing. The stock was priced at 12, below the original 14 to 16 range. Existing shareholders saw their PIOE shares exchanged for PX shares (the new symbol). As part of the IPO (which really should be viewed as a secondary offering), the company raised ~$240MM to de-lever and strengthen its balance sheet for additional acquisition opportunities. In addition, certain shareholders are selling ~10MM shares. The pricing of the IPO was disappointing, but I think the stock looks very attractive at its current valuation (14.3x EBITDA). The shares in my account are still not tradeable (not that I have any intention of selling), but Schwab has assured me that the shares will appear in my account under the new symbol (PX) by the end of the week. Hamilton Lane (HLNE), a close peer, trades at 28.1x. As such, I think P10 has substantial upside ahead. Original Write-up. Buy under 15.00

Stabilis Solutions (SLNG) recently announced that its COO is retiring. This follows the departure of the CFO this summer. Given the stock’s performance has been lackluster and the turnover in the management team, I’m going to cut my losses and SELL shares. Original Write-up. SELL

Disclosure: Rich Howe owns shares in BBXIA, LSYN, MEDXF, PIOE, FPAY, IDT, APVO, DS, SLNG, DMLP, and PFMT. Rich will only buy shares after he has shared his recommendation with Cabot Micro-Cap Insider members.

Buy means accumulate shares at or around the current price.
Hold means just that; hold what you have. Don’t buy, or sell, shares.
Sell means the original reasons for buying the stock no longer apply, and I recommend exiting the position.
Sell a Half means it’s time to take partial profits. Sell half (or whatever portion feels right to you) to lock in a gain, and hold on to the rest until another ratings change is issued.