A renewed bout of worry over how much tightening the Fed has left to do has taken the market lower over the past two weeks, taking most stocks down in the process. Even so, to this point, we’re looking at the pullback at tedious, yes, but also acceptable--all of the indicators that turned positive in January have taken on some water, but remain positive, as have the vast majority of potential leaders. We’re far from complacent, and if the weakness spreads, we’ll pare back, but we remain optimistic and are standing pat tonight.

Tonight’s issue is heavy on new ideas, including some enticing names in Other Stocks of Interest and two chip stocks that we’re very high on--both quack like fresh leaders, and it’s good to see the (growthy) chip sector itself act well, too. Bottom line, our antennae are up, but going with the evidence, we’re still leaning bullish, though also remaining flexible if something definitive changes.

America’s economy has been resilient in the face of rising interest rates, pushing the 10-year Treasury to the cusp of 4%. Earnings have been pretty good but ironically, the threat of too strong an economy, or a recession, seems to be weighing on markets. Our Exscienta (EXAI) was stopped out while Centrus Energy (LEU) was up 14% yesterday after positive earnings.

What started out looking like another positive week for the market later turned into a week of little gains or losses, as economic data and Fed speak weighed on stocks on Thursday and Friday. For the week the S&P 500 and Dow fell marginally, while the Nasdaq rose just over 0.5%.

Though cannabis sector sentiment is extremely dark because of price compression and lingering bitterness after the December drubbing, there are several reasons to be bullish on the group.

This suggests that it’s a good time to add to cannabis names as a contrarian investment. Warren Buffett tells us that the market should serve us, rather than influence our moods. If I am right about the underlying bullish trends, the market is serving up an opportunity in cannabis. But you have to look at this as a medium-term play.

We know about all the negativity in the space – declining wholesale prices, overproduction, the failure of politicians to get the ball over the line in banking reform in December. But what about the positives?

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the March 2023 issue.

While large restaurant companies cruised through the pandemic, smaller companies struggled. Some, however, are now undertaking promising turnarounds. We highlight four new ideas and provide updates on two previously discussed small-cap restaurants.

For struggling companies, free cash flow is their lifeblood. By using free cash flow yield, we can identify undervalued companies with plenty of cash flow that provides a margin of safety. We discuss three interesting stocks.

Our feature recommendation this month is a high free cash flow yield situation. Retailer Kohl’s (KSS) is viewed by investors as a broken company left behind by time, trends and technology, with unsettled leadership, further pressured by bloated inventory, a possible recession, and rising labor and goods costs. We see a company with a history of stable revenues and cash flows, that now has a highly capable operator at the helm, whose shares have a free cash flow yield of 13%. The generous dividend pays out close to half of this cash flow, producing a 6.2% dividend yield.

Stop us if you’ve heard this scenario before: The market gets a head of steam going, but after some inflationary reports, the Fed begins to jawbone the market, which leads to the market giving up the ghost. That happened at least a couple of times in 2022, so our antennae are up given the recent inflation reports and some tough talk from Fedheads last week. That said, once again, the bottom line is that most of the key evidence is still bullish, so while we’re honoring stops and aren’t piling in here, but we’re also holding onto names that are acting normally. We will drop our Market Monitor down a notch (to a level 6) to respect the recent dip, but we’re most interested in how the market responds now that it’s down near support.

This week’s list again has something for everyone, with our Top Pick a well-situated firm that’s helping to lead a group move and just reacted well to earnings.

The market has hit its first real rough patch of 2023, but so far the damage has been fairly limited. Still, it makes sense to add some protection, so today we’re adding a value stock that’s been one of the better performers in Bruce Kaser’s Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor portfolio for the past six months – but still has plenty of upside. Also, with the Stock of the Week portfolio at max capacity, we are parting ways with several positions to clear out some room for better opportunities in the coming weeks.

Stocks have rallied so far this year on optimism that we can get through this inflation and Fed rate hiking cycle without much economic pain. That’s what seems to be happening so far. But this latest “soft landing” rally is facing a formidable foe – history.

Rate hikes almost always slow the economy. But there is typically a long lag time. Since 1961, the Fed has embarked on nine inflation-busting, rate-hiking cycles. Eight of those cycles have led to recession. The yield curve has inverted, a phenomenon that has almost always preceded a recession.

We locked in our first profit since our two losing trades back at the beginning of February, near the near-term highs for the S&P 500.


Our SPY March 17, 2023, 440/445 bear call spread that we sold for $0.63 on February 2 was only worth $0.15 after the pullback in SPY mid-week. As a result, we decided to lock in the $0.48, or 10.6%, and take all risk off the table. With over three weeks left in the trade it didn’t make sense to continue to hold on to the trade for the potential to make an additional $0.15.

As earnings season comes to a close, we still have several opportunities ahead of us.


The holiday-shortened week starts with the potential success or failure of our Home Depot (HD) trade placed late in Friday’s trading session. Due to the market closure on Monday and HD’s earnings announcement prior to the opening bell Tuesday, we needed to place a trade on Friday.

February expiration has passed and we were able to lock in 14.97% on a cumulative basis for the cycle. Three out of our four positions made a profit with GDX essentially closing out the expiration cycle at breakeven, as we only lost $0.05 on the trade.

Our cumulative total return since starting the service just over eight months ago is 64.67%.

What started out looking like another positive week for the market later turned into a week of little gains or losses, as economic data and Fed speak weighed on stocks on Thursday and Friday. For the week the S&P 500 and Dow fell marginally, while the Nasdaq rose just over 0.5%.

Greentech continues to sit on the bearish side of things, but it’s holding the bottom of the trading range the sector has been in since May 15.

This week’s Friday Update is brief, with no earnings reports or ratings changes. And, with the long holiday weekend just ahead, there was little news on our recommended companies.

Since May, Greentech has traded in a 20-point range, between 70 and 90 in the benchmark we look to for sentiment, the Wilderhill Clean Energy Index. On Monday, we saw a break below support to 68, enough to cause concern we could be in store for an extended correction.

Bring it on. Persistent high inflation, a rapid Fed tightening cycle, and the explosion of Omicron have barely mussed the bull’s hair.

The market is higher so far today, though volumes and volatility are already fading ahead of the long holiday weekend. As of 11 am EST, the Dow is up 177 points and the Nasdaq is up 98 points.

Big picture, the prominent topics of debate out there continue to be the potential economic impact of Omicron and the longer-term market/stock valuation/investor risk tolerance impact of a rate hike cycle (assuming the Fed can pull that off).

For metal investors, it has been a classic tale of two markets. On the precious metals side of the market, disappointment still reigns as gold remains stuck in neutral and the white metals (led by palladium) are still in the dumps.

This week’s Friday Update is brief, with no earnings reports. As next Friday is a Christmas holiday, we will be publishing our Friday note and podcast next Thursday, December 23.

It’s been a challenging week for growth investors as the stocks that climbed the fastest are getting hit the hardest, such as our Cloudflare (NET) position, despite still posting strong numbers. On the other hand, Oracle (ORCL), where expectations are more modest, jumped from 89 to 104 this week on earnings that beat expectations.

The biggest thing happening is the change in fiscal stimulus and interest rate policy. Yesterday the Fed said it intends to accelerate the tapering process by reducing purchases by $30 billion a month (from $90 billion to $60 billion) starting in January. This is half of what was being purchased a few months ago. The program is on track to end by March 2022.

The Central Bank is coming out with its December announcement this afternoon. The market has been anxiously anticipating this meeting. And it’s a little nervous, as well it should be.

Private equity, the polished-up name for venture capital and leveraged buyout funds, is white-hot. If every market cycle has its own Masters of the Universe (the 1990s had tech mutual funds, the 2000s had hedge funds), the past decade’s MOTU was clearly private equity. Today, everyone wants to get in on the bonanza: MBA graduates, bankers, mutual funds, hedge funds, endowment and pension funds, insurance companies, wealthy individuals … and soon the average retail investor will get government-approved access to private equity investments. Exuberance1 abounds.

Nickel futures are back to a 7-year high and recently hit $19,000 a ton in a resurgence from last month’s pullback. Nickel prices are being supported by strong battery-related demand from electric vehicle (EV) makers.

Analysts are increasing their EPS estimates for this electronics company. The company’s earnings are expected to grow at an annual rate of 30% over the next five years.

We’ve been enjoying a crazy-strong market in many growth stocks lately, which has padded our paper gains in many of those positions. Today we’re going to step off the gas a little, book a few modest profits and step aside from some positions that haven’t done a lot lately.

The major indexes finished mixed yesterday, with the Dow off 269 points while the Nasdaq was up 11 points, though growth stocks were actually hit fairly hard, with a few more names showing potholes.

This telecom company is forecasted to grow earnings by 40.25% annually over the next five years.

The trend is clearly up in this hospitality stock, with institutional investors like mutual funds, jumping back into the shares after the breakdown due to COVID.

In JOANN’s second quarter as a public company, management has dealt with the Delta variant complicating social sewing events and supply chain challenges driving up costs. The net effect in Q2 was that revenue of $496.9 million missed by almost $36 million and adjusted EPS of -$0.20 missed by $0.06.

The quarter was just what we wanted see. Revenue grew by 87.9% to $29.5 million, slightly ahead of consensus for $29.1 million (which was based on S-1 filling guidance). Operating margin was roughly a percentage point above expectations (-6.8%). Full-year 2021 guidance of $103.5 - $104.3 million is ahead of consensus of $100 million and implies growth of 51% to 52% versus the 46% rate embedded in prior consensus. Given the trends, wise management team and status as a new IPO we should view this guidance as conservative.

The top five holdings in this fund are: Roper Technologies Inc (ROP, 10.71% of assets); Pentair PLC (PNR, 7.90%); Xylem Inc (XYL, 6.80%); Tetra Tech Inc (TTEK, 5.63%); and Rexnord Corp (RXN, 5.45%).

In the past 30 days, 10 analysts have increased their EPS estimates for this BDC. The shares have a current dividend yield of 8.42%, paid quarterly.

Since hitting a low in August, silver is trying to establish an intermediate-term low and could be on the cusp of another meaningful rally—especially if the market fears that inflation is truly becoming an entrenched reality (as opposed to a temporary phenomenon).

In the past 30 days, four analysts have boosted their EPS estimates for our first pick, a consumer products company that has a current annual dividend yield of 2.08%, paid quarterly. Our second recommendation is some hefty profit-taking on a previous idea.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.