Another interest rate hike and negative second-quarter earnings growth have done little to slow the bull market rally or investor confidence, so this week we add a “Bull Market Stock” to take advantage of the strength. It’s a term coined by our Mike Cintolo, so naturally, today we add Mike’s favorite Bull Market Stock, one he recently recommended to his Cabot Top Ten Trader audience, a company that benefits directly anytime there’s a bull market and the big institutions are buying stocks hand over fist.

Over the past several weeks I’ve heard the phrase “the animal spirits have returned” at least six or seven times. Okay, I’ll give you one or two, but seven?

The overall market ends the month with another nice return. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Dow Jones were up 3.0%, 3.8% and 3.1%, respectively, in July. It’s been a tremendous run and one we should be excited about for a variety of reasons. Since mid-March the S&P 500 has gained 19.6% and now sits just 5.0% below its all-time high. To put things in perspective we are looking at one the best years over the past two decades … and one that is currently outperforming 2021 (solid green line).

Not too much to report this week as we simply allow our August positions to erode in value, which as options premium sellers is a good thing. We enter earnings season this week, so I fully expect to add several positions to the portfolio over the coming weeks. We currently have six open position with the intent of getting up between eight and 10.

So far, so good this earnings season.

We’ve had three successful one-day trades … 8.0% in JPM, 6.4% in IBM and more recently 5.4% in V.

Earnings announcements continue this week with a long list of more well-known blue-chip stocks due to announce. As I stated on our call last Friday, I hope to make at least two trades this week. During each earnings cycle we aim to make somewhere between 8 to 12 trades and given the opportunities ahead I don’t see any reason why we wouldn’t fall within our typical range.

As earnings season approaches the midway point, and following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25-basis point interest rate hike last week, the market continued its ascent. For the week the S&P 500 gained 1%, the Dow rose by 0.65% and the Nasdaq added 2%.

As earnings season approaches the midway point, and following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25-basis point interest rate hike last week, the market continued its ascent. For the week the S&P 500 gained 1%, the Dow rose by 0.65% and the Nasdaq added 2%.

The big-picture outlook with the market hasn’t changed, with all of our key market timing indicators bullish, many studies pointing to higher prices down the road and leaders--even those that have taken hits--showing little abnormal action. That said, near-term, the odds are growing we may see more choppy trading, if not a pullback of some sort, so we’re not pushing the envelope here and are ditching names that crack. Earlier this week, that meant selling one position, and today, we’re selling another, leaving us with 28% in cash.

To be clear, the odds still favor the next big move being up, so we’re aiming to put some money to work in new leadership that emerges on earnings, or current leadership that pulls in to support. For now, though, we’ll hold the cash and see how earnings season progresses.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we go over a few new ideas, with the biggest write-up being what could be the #1 AI platform play (not picks and shovels, but actual platform) out there. It’s on our watch list.

The Federal Reserve resumed lifting interest rates Wednesday with a quarter-percentage-point increase that brings interest rates to a 22-year high. The decision was unanimous.

The benchmark federal funds rate will go to a range between 5.25% and 5.5% as the Fed continues its fight against inflation. This is the 11th increase since March 2022, when rates were near zero.

Inflation has already retreated from a four-decade high last summer and the consumer-price index was up 3% in June year over year which is much lower than the June 2022 peak of 9.1%.

Politicians in Washington, D.C. let cannabis investors down once again.

Commentary from lobbyists and Senators had suggested the Senate banking committee might make progress on cannabis sector banking reform (allowing banks to work with companies) in late July.

That turned out not to be the case. I cautioned at the time that a risk here is that the actions of politicians are hard to predict. But it was worth having exposure, in case there actually was progress on so-called SAFE banking, which seemed possible at the time.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the August 2023 issue.

In this letter, we include our Mid-Year 2023 updates for our stock market and high yield bond market outlooks. After being totally wrong with our stock market outlook for 2023, what do we see for the rest of the year, and why? We were nearly spot-on with our high yield bond market outlook. How does this market look to us now?

Our feature recommendation this month is Kopin Corporation (KOPN), an obscure optical display company that previously was run like a hobby by a brilliant scientist. Its primary output was a chronic stream of operating losses and share offerings that heavily diluted its investors. Now, under completely new leadership, the company is being run like a for-profit commercial enterprise with a vast market opportunity ahead.

Ahead of the long holiday weekend the market had yet another good week. The S&P 500 gained 1.75%, the Dow rallied 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose another 1.9%.

This week in an attempt to diversify the portfolio we are adding an energy play.

The population is aging. And it’s aging at warp speed. People 50 years of age and older now comprise a third of the U.S. population. The fastest growing segment of the population is 65 and older as an average of 10,000 baby boomers are turning 65 every single day. And it’s not just this country – aging is a global phenomenon.

We don’t know how sticky inflation will be or what the Fed will do. We don’t know if there will be a recession this year or next year or what the recovery will look like, or who will be the next president. But we do know that the population is shifting and companies on the receiving end of the torrent of dollars that will flow as a result should benefit mightily.

In this issue, I highlight another new stock to buy. This stock is cheap with strong momentum and properties that should help it perform well in any kind of market. It’s a healthcare stock ahead of a huge megatrend, the aging population.

Investing with the tailwind of a megatrend makes it so much easier to make a successful investment. It makes mediocre stocks great and good stocks one of your best investments ever.

Cryptocurrency markets are rebounding significantly, led by our investments in Ethereum (ETH) and ETH-based projects.

Both Polygon (MATIC) and Ethereum Name Service (ENS) are performing very well.

After a stellar performance in 2020 and a so-so 2021, gold has been one of this year’s biggest disappointments. After a promising rally in the first quarter, gold fell 17% from its March peak of $2,050 an ounce to $1,700 just two weeks ago.

But the decline looks like it may have finally ended in a classic “washout” with small investors running away while market-moving commercial players have lately jumped in as buyers—potentially good news from a contrarian perspective.

This note includes our review of earnings from Dril-Quip (DRQ), General Electric (GE), Holcim (HCMLY), Janus Henderson Group (JHG), Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), M/I Homes (MHO), Newell Brands (NWL), Polaris (PII), Shell plc (SHEL) and Xerox Holdings (XRX).

There were no ratings or price target changes this week.

With this morning’s first read of Q2 GDP coming in at -0.9% and marking the second consecutive quarter of negative growth (Q1 GDP was -1.6%), many are claiming (or soon will claim) the U.S. is in a recession.

As expected, America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, raised its benchmark interest rate 0.75% for the second straight meeting in an effort to beat down inflation that’s been running at a four-decade high.

Many are dubbing this week the most important of the year in terms of financial and market news. There are a slew of important earnings reports, a Fed meeting and likely rate hike, and the second-quarter GDP report.

Big news can bring great change. Change can bring good things when the current environment stinks. After all, if you live in Siberia, you’re not worried about climate change.

Russia’s decision to cut the oil it exports to Europe again – it’s now down to about 20% of pre-Ukraine invasion levels – is a sign the country wants to force energy prices higher to break opposition to the war. Higher fossil fuel prices are a long-term positive for renewable utility-level energy in Europe and for EVs there and in the U.S. In the sector right now, there are still lots of headwinds, but Greentech is making some progress. The near-term moving averages, the 20-day and 40-day, are now flat and hinting at turning higher, a sign that the bears may be wearing themselves out. Other signals are mixed but increasingly suggest the lows of May could be the bottom of this market.

We are entering the heart of earnings season. So far, the results are unimpressive. The entire retail sector is on alert after Walmart’s pre-announcement about weaker earnings due to their accelerating efforts to offload surplus inventory.

This week, we had a decent amount of news as earnings have started to get under way.

CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham expressed support for cryptocurrency by criticizing the SEC’s enforcement approach. The following is an important statement, as crypto industry leaders including Sam Bankman Fried are calling for clearer regulatory guidance.

A sudden surge in the U.S. dollar over the past year has bought good and relatively bad news for some firms. With the dollar strengthening, American companies with significant imports have benefitted from cheaper foreign exchange trade. Meanwhile, companies with a more global business are suffering because the strong dollar is affecting their performance.

The bearish close of last week triggered some of our sell-stops and we should sell the following positions today.

The market got off to a decent start to the week, but things have deteriorated for many names over the last two days. There are a few stocks that I had anticipated selling relatively soon, hopefully into some strength.

While things can turn up quickly, especially during earnings season, the market’s downturn over the last two days suggests we should drop a couple of names today.

The bleeding out among growth stocks is continuing today thanks in part to Netflix’s (NFLX) implosion, with the Nasdaq and most growth funds under pressure.

Silvergate Capital (SI) reported Q1 2022 results yesterday morning and held a conference call later in the day. Digesting the results took some time but at a high level the trends are very solid, despite a somewhat messy quarter for crypto markets. Here are the main bullet points.

Given that today’s date is 4/20, I feel compelled to acknowledge that that’s the code for “time to smoke pot.” But I don’t have any jokes. This is serious business. And it’s doubly serious because we’ve been dealing with a weak sector for over a year!

The only bright spot in that trend is that valuations have become more attractive; if this goes on long enough, I expect Cabot’s value analyst Bruce Kaser will recommend one of these stocks!

We are adding the Proshares Strategy Bitcoin ETF, ticker symbol: BITO to our stock portfolio today. We are purchasing a quarter of our expected total position of 10%. There are several reasons why we may increase the weight to overweight and bring our total holdings over 10% in time. We highlight these below.

Terra (LUNA) is demonstrating very strong intraday price action – moving from $82 to $87. It is now up over 8% on a day when other names are flat or negative. LUNA is outperforming broader indices.

Since first recommending LUNA several weeks ago, price has been volatile. Today, we reiterate our conviction in holding LUNA over a multi-year period.

Today is the expiration of April options. Because I am on vacation this week I won’t dive deep into the profits, and one potential loss, for these positions until next week. However, most importantly, for today the “headline” is that you don’t need to act on any of our April positions.

Remain cautious. The market’s latest selloff has continued this week, with even this morning’s good-looking gap higher disintegrating by day’s end.

The market (and especially growth stocks) took a good-sized hit today—our Cabot Tides remain positive, but as we wrote in last week’s update, we’re still seeing lots of selling on strength, leading to many air pockets among individual stocks.

Cactus (WHD) moves to sell today. After a quick trip to north of 60, shares of WHD have been somewhat volatile and downside risks seems to be creeping in as investors weigh the relatively high valuation and potential for slower ramp up of onshore U.S. production even in the face of soaring oil prices.

The market had another solid day today, which was enough to flip our Cabot Tides back to a bullish signal.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.