Stocks have hit the pause button in the last week. Is summer malaise already setting in? Or is this merely a deep breath before the buyers gain more fodder in the form of dovish Fed speak or the next round of earnings reports? We’ll see. In case it’s the former, today we add a value stock that potentially has an immediate, near-term catalyst. It’s the first contribution from the newest addition to our Cabot team, Matt Warder, a market veteran and cyclicals/commodities expert who has taken over our Cabot Turnaround Letter advisory. I think you’ll enjoy Matt’s unique, outside-the-box perspective.

Details inside.

While the gains/losses in the three major indexes were mostly muted last week, there was some interesting rotation out of the AI/Semiconductor theme and into recent underperformers … though this is hardly anything to write home about as it was just two days of this type of action.

By week’s end, the S&P 500 gained 0.65%, the Dow rose by 1.75%, and the Nasdaq fell marginally.

While the gains/losses in the three major indexes were mostly muted last week, there was some interesting rotation out of the AI/Semiconductor theme and into recent underperformers … though this is hardly anything to write home about as it was just two days of this type of action.

By week’s end, the S&P 500 gained 0.65%, the Dow rose by 1.75%, and the Nasdaq fell marginally.

Despite some troubling signs under the surface of the market, mega-cap tech once again led the indexes’ charge higher. And because of the heavy weighting of these tech stocks in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, those indexes gained 1.8% and 3.75%, respectively, while the Dow fell 0.4% on the week.

Despite some troubling signs under the surface of the market, mega-cap tech once again led the indexes’ charge higher. And because of the heavy weighting of these tech stocks in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, those indexes gained 1.8% and 3.75%, respectively, while the Dow fell 0.4% on the week.

In the June Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, we continue to lean into AI themes while taking a swing at a speculative space communications company. We’re also trying to keep things real here on earth with a picks-and-shovels-type infrastructure play, and we pull back the curtain on a real rarity in 2024, a software stock with a nice chart!

As always, there should be something for everybody.

Explorer stocks had a good week led by Super Micro (SMCI) up 20% and Cloudflare (NET), up 9%, as PayPal (PYPL) has struggled a bit as it launches a new, higher-margin digital ad business. The S&P 500 is up 14% so far this year but the 10 biggest stocks recently represented almost 37% of the index’s total value, the highest since September 2000, according to FactSet. Use caution and take partial profits if you have some of these in your portfolio.

We have been discussing some great companies and breakthrough technologies, but it is easy to overlook that energy is the foundation of economic and technological development. It is also at the core of how countries secure and project national power.

So today, we add a U.S. renewable energy company that is a leader in an alternative energy source that’s making a comeback.

Despite some troubling signs under the surface of the market, mega-cap tech once again led the indexes’ charge higher. And because of the heavy weighting of these tech stocks in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, those indexes gained 1.8% and 3.75%, respectively, while the Dow fell 0.4% on the week.

On the one hand, there are still a decent number of stocks that act well and are generally advancing, but on the other hand, more and more names across a variety of areas are hitting air pockets or simply falling by the wayside. To us, the divergence tells us the risk of a big character change is elevated, and that’s why we continue to advise holding a decent chunk of cash—but with plenty of stocks still acting well, we’re also OK with selective buying in names that are under strong accumulation. We’ll again leave our Market Monitor at a level 7, though we remain flexible and will adjust exposure if need be.

This week’s list is another eclectic one, with an increasing number of turnaround-type stories. Our Top Pick is a bigger outfit that’s very cheap but is starting to see some AI benefits—and the stock has shown exceptional power of late.

Stocks keep rising to new highs, though only a handful of sectors are truly participating in the rally. That will need to change if the market is to sustain its recent momentum, but for now, we’ll go with the tides and lean into one of the new-age subsectors that’s been attracting major sponsorship: GLP-1, a.k.a. weight-loss drugs. They’re all the rage these days and have driven portfolio holdings Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) to great heights. And today, we add a more under-the-radar, indirect play on the trend in the form of a mid-cap health food upstart that was recently recommended by Tyler Laundon to his Cabot Early Opportunities audience.

Details inside.

Markets have been sideways in the past month, affected by wars, upcoming elections, and analysts see-sawing on the possibility of a Fed rate reduction. The Federal Reserve is meeting this week, and predictions for a rate cut this year are all over the board: none, one, or two.

I expect we’ll have more volatility as we near the fall election cycle.

In the meantime, economic stats look good! Manufacturing continues to climb, jobs are still being added at a rapid pace (272,000 vs. the estimate of 190,000), and the unemployment rate—at 3.9%—remains steady.

The market remains a mixed bag, with some big-cap indexes moving up, but just about everything else still stuck in a trading range, while leading growth stocks remain hit or miss. That said, there are some encouraging signs, including some fresher leadership and resilient action among a bunch of names we’re watching and own, so we continue to play things in the middle--we’re holding some strong names and actually averaging up on one of our stocks tonight, but we’re also holding a chunk of cash and being selective.

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This was an interesting week with news ranging from inflation to AI, tech struggles between the U.S. and China, and Tesla’s edge in terms of labor costs.

On Capitol Hill in Washington, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates and others worth an estimated $500 billion, according to Forbes, met for a closed-door Senate summit on AI.

Consumer prices rose 0.6% in August, the largest increase since June of 2022. An 11% jump in gasoline prices was the main problem, which led to a fall in average real earnings.

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Monday after the close, sources close to the Senate banking committee said the panel will delay its vote on key cannabis banking reform known as the SAFE Banking Act. Some investors had expected the vote to happen next week. This update probably helps explain sector weakness Tuesday.

While nearly dormant last year, the market for initial public offerings (IPOs) is starting to warm up. Mediocre or obscure companies like Pixie Dust Technologies (PXDT) and BioNexus (BGLC) inspired no one with their IPOs earlier this year. Shares of Vietnamese electric car marker VinFast Auto (VFS) surged over 300%, to $90, following their recent deal at $22, but have now collapsed to about $16 as the shares were subjected to all of the market manipulations that one would expect from an exceptionally thinly traded, poorly executed offering. Even Oddity (ODD), up about 6% from its issue price, left much to be desired.

The market is starting this week higher on optimism about a “soft landing.” But the CPI inflation number for August that comes out on Wednesday could derail or support the rally.

Things seem upbeat Monday morning. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that she is “feeling very good” about avoiding a recession while still reining in prices. Of course, she called inflation “transitory” in early 2021. There were also some encouraging numbers about the Chinese economy. Also, the Fed is widely expected not to raise the Fed Funds rate later this month.

This week there were no earnings reports or ratings changes.

The summer is over. The post-Labor Day market has arrived. What can we expect?

Historically, September is the worst month for the market. Sobered up investors back from vacation tend to be cranky when they take a fresh look at things. But seasonality doesn’t always apply. And there are some reasons for optimism.

You are receiving this unscheduled update due to recent strength in cannabis names. Your regularly scheduled update will be published on September 13.

For all of the past year, I have been steadfastly bullish on cannabis names. The group was hated, but several underlying trends told us that was likely to change. This set it up as an ideal contrarian play.

Now, the steady buying I’ve been suggesting is paying off.

Summer is over. The post Labor Day market begins this week. What can we expect?

The market has been nearly impossible to predict over the past several years. There was the pandemic crash, the recovery that began shortly after the lockdowns began, the 2022 bear market, and the surprising return to a bull market this year.

This week, we comment on results from Duluth Holdings (DLTH), the last of our companies to report this earnings season.

We also include the Catalyst Report and a summary of the September edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday. We encourage you to look through the Catalyst Report. This report is a listing of all of the companies that have reported a catalyst in the past month. These catalysts include new CEOs, activist activity, spin-offs and other possible game-changers. We source many of our feature recommendations from this list. You will find it nowhere else on Wall Street.

Moving M/I Homes (MHO) to Sell

I will be exiting the Walmart (WMT) trade today.

Walmart (WMT) is due to announce earnings Thursday before the opening bell.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The overall market remains mixed, but the under-the-surface action remains a meat grinder, with numerous stocks getting chewed up after making big swings. Today, we’re cutting loose On Holdings (ONON), which had a great Q1 but has nevertheless seen sellers swarm. This will leave us with more than 70% in cash, which is too high given the evidence, so we may have a new addition or two in tomorrow’s issue, though we’ll have to see how it goes given the continued air pockets among potential leaders.

We have one short call position left in May that needs to be rolled, SPY. There is little to no value left in our May 19, 2023, 420 calls, so as a result, I want to buy back our 420 calls and immediately sell more calls. This should help to bring our deltas back in line as well.

Disney (DIS) is due to announce earnings today (Wednesday) after the closing bell.

Disney (DIS) is due to announce earnings today (Wednesday) after the closing bell.

Airbnb (ABNB) and Rivian (RIVN) Report

Expensify (EXFY) reported underwhelming Q1 2023 results after the bell yesterday. Our goal here was to get into what seems like a promising long-term opportunity with a small specialist (expense management and other financial tools for small and very small businesses) before the trends turned more positive.

With 37 days until the June 16, 2023, expiration, I want to lock in another profitable trade today, this time in DIA. We can take well over 50% of the original premium sold for a nice gain.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The story remains the same for the market, which has some positives, but we continue to see wild action among leading stocks, with some doing OK but others hitting air pockets on no news or decent earnings reports. Today, we’re going to have to sell our half-sized stake in Axon (AXON), which reported a fine quarter and opened unchanged but was divebombed today and cracked support. We’ll sell and hold the cash for now.

Intapp (INTA) reported another solid quarter after the closing bell yesterday, sending shares up around 15% today.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.