Issues
The recent rally has lifted call premiums to the highest levels in many months as more investors are willing to bet on higher prices going forward. But unless this current rally leads us to the next bull market, it’s probably nearly over. It’s a great time to lock in a high income while premiums are fat, and stocks may be close to a near-term high.
The current market is creating a golden opportunity to get a high income in an otherwise crummy market. Let’s grab it. In this issue, I highlight two call-writing opportunities in stocks that have rallied strongly since being added to the portfolio. While I like the prospects of these stocks over the next year, it’s time to err on the side of income.
The current market is creating a golden opportunity to get a high income in an otherwise crummy market. Let’s grab it. In this issue, I highlight two call-writing opportunities in stocks that have rallied strongly since being added to the portfolio. While I like the prospects of these stocks over the next year, it’s time to err on the side of income.
Today we are going to keep the profits rolling by selling a defensive covered call in a recent earnings winner.
First off, a quick note: Due to our regular schedule (50 weeks a year), there won’t be a Movers & Shakers update this shortened week, or a Top Ten issue next Monday—but we will send out a Movers & Shakers update next Monday and will be around all next week if you have any questions. Have a fantastic Thanksgiving!
Nothing much changed with the market last week: The major indexes were down, but not severely, and the intermediate-term trend continues to point up. That said, under the surface, it remains a very mixed bag—some areas look great, but there are as many (or more) wobbly names out there compared to names in solid uptrends. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 5 this week, though we’d like to individual stocks act better soon.
This week’s list is heavy on old world companies, though there are a few great-looking growth names, too. Our Top Pick is in that space and has shown great power before and after its recent earnings report.
Nothing much changed with the market last week: The major indexes were down, but not severely, and the intermediate-term trend continues to point up. That said, under the surface, it remains a very mixed bag—some areas look great, but there are as many (or more) wobbly names out there compared to names in solid uptrends. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 5 this week, though we’d like to individual stocks act better soon.
This week’s list is heavy on old world companies, though there are a few great-looking growth names, too. Our Top Pick is in that space and has shown great power before and after its recent earnings report.
Happy Thanksgiving! The market is relatively quiet at the moment, and will likely continue to be ahead of the Thursday holiday. And as we head into the final month of the year, our portfolio is in good shape, with most of our stocks acting well. But it can never hurt to add a bit of safety, especially in a bear market, which is why this week we’re adding a reliable real estate investment trust (REIT) that tends to outperform coming off of down periods for the market. The company comes highly recommended by Cabot Dividend Investor Chief Analyst Tom Hutchinson.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The three leading indexes were slightly lower last week as the S&P 500 fell 0.61%, the Dow declined by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq lost 1%.
We currently have two open positions: a bear call spread in SPY and an IWM iron condor. Both are due to expire December 16, 2022 and both are currently in a profitable state. So there really isn’t too much to say at the moment. I do plan on adding a bull put spread to the portfolio, mostly to even out the deltas a bit, but as always, I’m not going to force it.
The three leading indexes were slightly lower last week as the S&P 500 fell 0.61%, the Dow declined by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq lost 1%.
This week we have two positions due to expire: one in GDX, the other in KO.
Both positions are in the covered call phase of the income wheel strategy and both have calls that look to close in-the-money at the end of this week. If both close in-the-money, we will simply lock in our capital gains, premium and begin the wheel process over again by selling more puts in both positions early next week.
I also intend on adding a new short-term trade to the mix this week. Stay tuned!
Both positions are in the covered call phase of the income wheel strategy and both have calls that look to close in-the-money at the end of this week. If both close in-the-money, we will simply lock in our capital gains, premium and begin the wheel process over again by selling more puts in both positions early next week.
I also intend on adding a new short-term trade to the mix this week. Stay tuned!
Another earnings season is finally behind us.
After two winning trades in Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT) last week our cumulative total for the earnings cycle was 21.7%. That’s an average gain of 3.1% per trade, below our expected return per trade but certainly nothing to sneeze at, especially in this volatile market. I’ll take what can be thought of as paying myself a 3.1% dividend, seven times, over the past month or so. Again, not even close to a home run, but remember, we aren’t playing long ball. Aaron Judge doesn’t interest us. Our goal is to hit singles and doubles with each and very trade we place. We’re taking the Tony Gwynn/Rod Carew approach to trading earnings.
After two winning trades in Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT) last week our cumulative total for the earnings cycle was 21.7%. That’s an average gain of 3.1% per trade, below our expected return per trade but certainly nothing to sneeze at, especially in this volatile market. I’ll take what can be thought of as paying myself a 3.1% dividend, seven times, over the past month or so. Again, not even close to a home run, but remember, we aren’t playing long ball. Aaron Judge doesn’t interest us. Our goal is to hit singles and doubles with each and very trade we place. We’re taking the Tony Gwynn/Rod Carew approach to trading earnings.
The top-down evidence isn’t completely green, but it’s certainly taken steps in the right direction, with our Cabot Tides clearly on a buy signal, the broad market improving in the face of tons of bad news and sentiment still in the dumps. We think there’s a decent chance this rally can morph into the real deal.
That said, there’s no rush to jump in when it comes to growth stocks, as few are really moving on the upside–the sell-on-strength pattern remains in place, with far more air pockets out there than moonshots. That can change, and if it does, we’ll embark on a buying spree, but we still favor going slow on the buy side for now.
In tonight’s issue, we go over all our stocks and our recent moves, as well as dive into the sell-on-strength action, which to us, is the #1 market trait of 2022. When it ends, many will likely be caught leaning the wrong way (selling/shorting at new highs), but that’s what we’re waiting for to floor the accelerator.
That said, there’s no rush to jump in when it comes to growth stocks, as few are really moving on the upside–the sell-on-strength pattern remains in place, with far more air pockets out there than moonshots. That can change, and if it does, we’ll embark on a buying spree, but we still favor going slow on the buy side for now.
In tonight’s issue, we go over all our stocks and our recent moves, as well as dive into the sell-on-strength action, which to us, is the #1 market trait of 2022. When it ends, many will likely be caught leaning the wrong way (selling/shorting at new highs), but that’s what we’re waiting for to floor the accelerator.
In the November Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, I take a quick look at some recent earnings reports and continue to spread things out among different industries with our new additions.
This month I cover a premium furniture retailer, a micro-cap biotech, an online finance specialist, an oil refiner and a somewhat speculative space economy stock. There should be something in this Issue for everybody.
This month I cover a premium furniture retailer, a micro-cap biotech, an online finance specialist, an oil refiner and a somewhat speculative space economy stock. There should be something in this Issue for everybody.
Sparked by an inflation data point that showed some signs of cooling, the market surged higher last week. The S&P 500 gained 6%, the Dow rose 4% and the Nasdaq gained a whopping 8.8%.
Updates
A key factor holding gold prices back after peaking last August has been the diminution of economic and geopolitical worries following last year’s virus-related economic volatility. In short, gold’s “fear factor”—which I maintain is the dominant driving force behind the metal’s intermediate-term trend—was missing for most of that time.
Today’s note includes earnings updates on 12 companies, the podcast and the Catalyst Report. We publish the Catalyst Report on the Friday after each monthly issue of the Cabot Turnaround Letter. There were no changes to any of our ratings this week.
The U.S. economy is growing more quickly than before the pandemic, both the S&P 500 and S&P 600 are up modestly over the past week and, so far, this earnings season has been a massive improvement over the train wreck of the first-quarter reporting season.
Chinese stocks were hit this week both on American exchanges and overseas as Chinese regulators ratcheted up the pressure through antitrust and regulatory steps that caught many executives and investors off guard. The Golden Dragon index of Chinese technology stocks fell by 15% in two days before rebounding after regulators tried to reassure markets.
A crazy earnings season meets a sideways market. Investors have been looking for a narrative that gains traction. Maybe earnings will provide it.
We remain largely in cash and continue to believe patience and smart entries into new positions will benefit the portfolio in the weeks ahead.
The stock market reached yet another record high on Monday, but it just doesn’t seem the same as earlier records. Investors (and everyone else) is starting to wonder if Covid is now endemic – an inherent component of everyday life. Will cases surge in the winter months and just after holidays instead of going away with a single vaccine cycle? We won’t likely be going back to widespread lockdowns, but previously unfettered socializing and traveling could be restrained, thus suppressing earnings and valuations for many companies.
Investing in micro-caps is fun because you can invest in growth companies at value prices. When investing in pure “value” stocks, your goal is to buy a dollar for 50 cents. The problem is that the dollar of value can shrink over time to 80 cents or 60 cents, especially if the business is facing secular headwinds. The benefit of investing in “growth” companies is the value of your investment can grow over time.
Today’s note includes an update on earnings from Baker Hughes (BKR) and a preliminary trading report from Vodafone (VOD). There were no ratings changes.
The market is mixed so far today—as of 1145 am, the Dow is off 44 points and the Nasdaq is up 25 points, though many growth stocks are again acting well. In recent issues and updates we’ve written repeatedly about the market’s on-again, off-again, tricky and challenging environment, while at the same time seeing a lot of potential multi-month setups among growth stocks. Oftentimes, what such an environment “needs” is a shakeout on some scary headline news to clear the decks.
The market got off to a horrible week as stocks sold off Monday, but things have been a lot better since and the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is now back above where it closed last Wednesday (6% below all-time highs). Stepping back, we see that the broad small-cap index has been bouncing around since March without making any net new progress. But drilling down deeper we see many stocks (including several in our portfolio) acting well.
The bears sure enjoyed a rare day in the sun on Monday. The Dow had its worst day of the year, down more than 3%. Pessimists haven’t loved life like that since March of 2020.
Alerts
The shares of this apparel company were just upgraded by Stifel to ‘Buy’. The shares have a current dividend yield of 3.02%, paid quarterly.
The expiration of our May covered calls is this Friday, and several of our positions are trading below the strike price of our covered call options (CLF, LEVI, HOG), though it’s a close call, and a totally fine situation.
This preferred stock has a current annual dividend yield of 4.33%.
As I write this morning, the market is selling off broadly, raising the question of whether this downtrend will gain real momentum. The truth is no one knows. What we do know is that the Dow is just seven trading days off its all-time high, while the Nasdaq, where growth stocks have been hit harder, has been losing momentum since mid-February. Thus, technically, these indices have been diverging for three months and now the odds are growing that the broad market will follow the Nasdaq’s lead on the downside.
Editor Jeffrey Hirsch is repositioning his portfolio for seasonal strength with this bond fund buy. The fund has a current annual dividend yield of 2.13%, paid monthly.
U.S. Neurosurgical Holdings (USNU) recently filed a 10-Q to report first-quarter earnings.
This gaming company posted a loss last quarter, but revenues were up by triple-digits, and analysts are piling into the stock.
This mortgage REIT invests primarily in agency mortgage-backed securities, including the Government National Mortgage Association, or Ginnie Mae; the Federal National Mortgage Association, or Fannie Mae (FNMA); and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, or Freddie Mac (FMCC).
This may just go down on record as one of the worst earnings seasons ever for growth stocks. Two weeks ago, things were “fine.” Since May began, not. Inflation is the bogeyman spooking investors and his shadow has crept out from below desks and up the walls of those with growth-heavy portfolios. The sell orders picked up steam early this week, and while the last two days have been far better, the divergent action between growth stocks (cloud, MedTech, Internet, etc.) and other areas of the market is crystal clear.
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) reported yesterday afternoon and Q1 results beat expectations. Revenue was up 38.6% to $16.9 million (beating by $800K) while adjusted EPS of $0.01 beat by a penny. Management also bumped up full-year guidance, with revenue now expected in the $106 to $115 million range.
Five analysts have increased their EPS estimates for this aviation-supply business in the past 30 days.
Portfolios
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.