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This was a good week for Explorer stocks with Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) up 6.2%, Alibaba (BABA) up 5.9%, Banco Santander (SAN) shares rising 6.2%, and BYD (BYDDY) shares surging 8.1% this week.

It was a painful process with America’s most valuable ally, but a trade/investment deal was finally reached with Japan, which buoyed markets. Frameworks for deals with the Philippines and Indonesia were also agreed to, sending the S&P 500 to a new high. The market seems mostly concerned with China. The reason is that annual S&P 500 revenue from China is $1.2 trillion, roughly four times the U.S. trade deficit with China.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the July 2022 issue.



As we approach the mid-point of the calendar year, we provide our traditional mid-year update for the stock market and high-yield bond market. Our commentary on stocks reviews what sectors worked (only one), what sectors and stocks stood out as the weakest, how the value vs. growth shift has played out so far, and what helped developed markets outside the United States limit the depth of their selloffs. We also discuss the state of two key drivers of future stock market performance, the role of the two “Easts,” and offer some advice on what not to do in this market, as well as a suggestion about what value investors might want to do.



Our call last year to avoid high-yield bonds, cousins of sorts to turnaround stocks, was spot-on. We walk through the effects of inflation on the two components of high bond yield prices, provide some historical perspective on yield spreads, and describe how only two of the three ingredients for a bankruptcy cycle are in place. We also suggest that while high-yield bonds are more attractive today than a year ago, it is still a time to be selective.



Our feature recommendation this month is ESAB Corporation (ESAB). This high-quality company was recently spun off from Colfax Corporation and checks nearly all of our boxes for an appealing turnaround stock, yet it is being overlooked as investors migrate to familiar stocks.



We note our recent ratings change of Marathon Oil (MRO) from Buy to a Sell.

The predictable September selloff got underway last week, though thankfully only one holding in the Stock of the Week portfolio was a true casualty of Wall Street’s usual post-Labor Day foul mood. This week, likely the last before the Fed (finally) starts to cut interest rates, we add a company that should benefit directly from the cuts: a mortgage lender and real estate firm. It’s a new recommendation from Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader newsletter, and it’s a stock that’s already having a nice year – but could have way more upside once the Fed starts to cut rates.

Details inside.

Investors weren’t surprised by the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady, but they also didn’t react by ramping up their stock purchases—too much uncertainty what with the election rhetoric heating up and the turmoil in Congress, after Kevin McCarthy was unceremoniously ousted as Speaker. And now, we have the war in Israel.

The major indexes continue to hover near all-time highs, even as more issues beneath the surface crop up. Another strong earnings season, dwindling U.S.-China trade tensions, and another interest rate cut are helping prop stocks up, even as volatility begins to creep higher again. So today, to account for a possible pullback, we opt for a stock that’s a household name but one that has become so undervalued that Clif Droke just added it to his Cabot Turnaround Letter portfolio.

Details inside.

Growth stocks, led by the Magnificent Seven, have again carried the market this year.

The Mag. 7 – the clever name for big-tech behemoths Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) – are up an average of 22% this year. Because those seven companies account for more than a third of the entire S&P 500, they’ve carried the index to a solid 16.5% gain year to date. The Equal Weight S&P 500 index, which equally weighs each of the 500 stocks that comprise the benchmark index, is up a mere 8.5% and has barely budged since the Fourth of July. For most stocks, the entirety of this year’s rally occurred during the post-Liberation Day run-up from the second half of April through early July.

Despite emphasis on closing the gender wealth gap, women in (and approaching) retirement still face significant challenges. Not only do women live longer than men and thus need to stretch their retirement dollars further, they also have, on average, half the retirement savings and can expect to receive a smaller amount from Social Security. This month, we’ll tackle strategies that everyone can use to build a bigger nest egg, cut down on expenses, and achieve their retirement goals.

The Financial Times reported this morning that this portfolio stock was in talks, in late December, to possibly be acquired by AIG, Prudential Financial Group or Prudential Financial.

A Covered Call is a strategy in which the trader holds a long position in a stock and writes (sells) a call option on the same stock in an attempt to generate income.

Looking for an investment that offers steady income? Look no further than REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) for a win.

These basics will help any growth investors improve their portfolio results.

Five of the stocks in the portfolio have reported earnings.

Health care is one area where expenditures grow, rather than decline, with age. And while higher health care spending isn’t a good thing, and it would be great to see per capita health care spending diminish, you can’t argue with demographics. One implication is that while most retailers increasingly will struggle,...

Bull risk reversals are the trade of choice for hedge funds that want to put on huge bullish positions these days. However, the trades are extremely bullish, and if the trade goes wrong, it can go bad in a big way.

A Covered Call is a strategy in which the trader holds a long position in a stock and writes (sells) a call option on the same stock in an attempt to generate income.

Starbucks (SBUX), Dutch Bros (BROS) and Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) are all competing for market share, but which is the best coffee stock in the world?

This month’s candidate is another software stock—but not a high flyer. Rather, this company is still scooting just below the radar, and trades at a big discount to most of its peers. When you value it based on growth, it’s downright cheap—but valuation isn’t why we’re buying it.