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Things look good for 2024. Inflation is down, interest rates have likely peaked, and there is no sign of recession. But you never know. It’s a tough game to predict the future of the market. However, certain trends are likely to persist.

It’s a good bet that interest rates have peaked. Sure, they could edge higher from here. But they are unlikely to soar to new highs past 5% for the 10-year Treasury. The situation would have to completely reverse for that to happen. Meanwhile, stocks that have been dragged lower by rising interest rates have come alive again.

These stocks, which have strong track records of market outperformance, are at historically cheap valuations, have established upward momentum, and are positioned ahead of a likely slowing economy.

Also, artificial intelligence is here to stay. Businesses must spend on it not only for competitive advantage, but as a matter of survival. The new technology will continue to be a strong growth catalyst for technology stocks. And the trend will continue regardless of what the Fed does, or the state of the economy, or who is elected president.

In this issue, I highlight a fantastic dividend stock whose long record of strong performance has been interrupted these last two years. It’s also a company that focuses on technology and will surely benefit from the proliferation of AI in the years ahead. The timing for this stock should be outstanding.

There are a number of ways to reduce your mortgage rate, but the “right” way depends on several factors. Let’s break down three options to see which is best.

Let’s talk about bubbles.

There’s been a whole lot of investor speculation of late over whether we’re near an artificial intelligence bubble, akin to what we saw from the dot-com bubble at the turn of the century or the housing bubble that led to the 2008-09 Great Recession. Indeed, with AI spending (an estimated $300 to $400 billion this year) outpacing revenue (an estimated $60 billion this year) by roughly a 6-to-1 ratio – about double the capital expenditures-to-revenue ratio just before the dot-com bubble burst – the angst over an AI bubble is understandable, and perhaps warranted.

This Halloween, there’s nothing to fear. At least not for investors.

OK, nothing is a bit of an exaggeration. Today’s anticipated meetup between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could go sideways, putting high tariffs between the two mega-powers back on the menu. There could be some key earnings blowups ahead as we remain in the thick of third-quarter reporting season. And the government shutdown is more than a month old at this point, which could take a toll on the market.

Joann Stores (JOAN) reported Q4 results after the bell yesterday that beat on the bottom line and missed on the top line. Revenue was down 13% to $735.3 million (missing by $17 million) while adjusted EPS of $1.16 beat by $0.12. Adjusted EBITDA of $88.9 million was below consensus of $94.2 million and adjusted gross margin of 48.9% was in line (up 1.9% from the year-ago quarter).

Nippon Steel continues to push for an acquisition of U.S. Steel (X), so let’s explore what it means for investors or those considering buying shares.

WHAT TO DO NOW: As we write about in tonight’s issue, there are many crosscurrents out there, with some growth names cracking while others emerge on the upside, so we’re selling laggards while aiming to add fresher, stronger names. In the Model Portfolio, we sold MP and GEV last week, and today we’re going to sell Oracle (ORCL), which tripped our mental stop today. That said, we’re also going to fill out our position in CrowdStrike (CRWD), adding another half-sized stake, and start a new half position in Vertiv Holding (VRT), all of which will leave us with around 38% in cash.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market is acting powerfully since Tuesday’s election, and we’re seeing some outsized moves on earnings this week. We’ll have our full update of Growth Investor tonight, but this bulletin concerns AppLovin (APP), which is skyrocketing this morning after earnings, and of course, this comes after a big run. We’re going to lean against the wind here and take some partial profits, selling one-third of our position and holding the rest. Again, more color tonight.

Remain mostly bullish as our trend-following indicators are still positive and most leading stocks are in solid uptrends. We have no changes in the Model Portfolio tonight as we are keeping some cash (17%) on the sidelines.

The big-picture story out there continues to be the battle between bad news (rising infections, high unemployment, too many crumbling businesses) and good news (progress toward vaccines, therapeutics, etc.; accommodative policies from the Fed; improving fundamentals for some businesses arising from the pandemic). Then there’s all the uncertainty around the upcoming election that further confounds the mind.

This month we’re jumping back into the pure-play software space with an up and coming SaaS company that has remained under the radar since going public in December, just a few months before the market tanked.

It specializes in social media management solutions, which are increasingly important as the trend toward digital transformation strategies gets stronger. Organizations increasingly recognize they must market to consumers through social networks.



Revenue growth is hovering around 30% and first profits are still a couple years away, meaning we’re still early to the table.



All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!

What are call and put options? Jacob Mintz, Chief Analyst of Cabot Options Trader, explains in this detailed infographic.

The market was up big today, and a couple of our stocks hit new highs—which is impressive considering the recent crash—but the market’s major pattern is one of bottom-building, and that takes time.
In the meantime, the action of the best growth stocks gives us a clue as to developing leadership, and the best value stocks are absurdly cheap. Plus, many are paying huge dividends! That’s the case with today’s recommendation, a giant in the oil industry.


As for the rest of the portfolio, it’s acting well (with a couple of very strong stocks in the mix), and thus I have no changes today.


Full details in the issue.

Sell Fortrea Holdings (FTRE); Buy Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Today’s featured stocks reported fourth quarter results this morning; we have a new addition to the Growth & Income Portfolio; which could deliver quick capital gains when they report earnings; and another company which gave an informative presentation at the recent Needham Growth Conference.

I also discuss the coronavirus, which could easily cause stock market turbulence through April, even if the virus dissipates quickly.

Artificial intelligence is a massive catalyst that is changing the market. It is spreading beyond technology and transforming other industries.

Utilities are companies that provide water, energy, and electricity to homes and businesses. They operate monopolies or near monopolies in their areas and the rates they charge are usually determined by regulatory bodies.

They usually pay strong dividend yields and provide highly defensive earnings that continue in any kind of economy. But, aside from the dividend and defensive characteristics, they’ve typically offered little else. Good stocks tend to outperform the indexes in flat or down markets and underperform them in bull markets. They are the market sector that most closely resembles bonds.

But skyrocketing electricity demand, mostly from data centers supporting AI, is changing that sector for the better. The phenomenon is making electric utilities growth businesses as well. The changing environment is adding another hugely positive dimension to these underrated stocks.

In this issue, I identify a beneficiary of that positive change that’s ahead of the pack. It’s an opportunity that has never existed before in modern times. The combination of defense and growth is the best of both worlds.

Is it better to buy stock when it’s low? There may be a better question to ask yourself about stock prices.

The market has served up a good deal of volatility lately and for the most part our stocks have handled it well (so far).

It was a fairly quiet week in terms of the leading indexes’ performance as the S&P 500 fell marginally, the Dow mostly finished the week unchanged, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.4%.

The broad market has traded higher for eight straight sessions, the longest run since 2021. The Nasdaq is up for nine sessions.

The S&P Small Cap Index is up in five of the last nine sessions, but the last four have been down. What the ...?!!

Big picture, this isn’t great for the broad market as we want a more broad-based rally. And in theory it’s not great for us.

But the reality is our portfolio isn’t diversified along the same lines as the small-cap index. We’re not overweight financials, energy and health care (we have little to no exposure to all three) and instead are focused on pure-play opportunities that aren’t expected to trade in lockstep with the small-cap index.