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Turnaround Letter
Out-of-Favor Stocks with Real Value
Issues
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the December 2022 issue.

While investment losses are everywhere this year, we highlight two ways to harvest these losses and discuss seven stocks that have strong appeal as year-end bounce trades.

We also highlight four attractive stocks held by highly-regarded long-term value investment funds that we found in our analysis of the recent 13F regulatory filings.

Our feature recommendation this month is theme park operator Six Flags Entertainment (SIX). This company is aggressively working to improve its profit structure under a completely new leadership team but the turnaround is taking longer than investors would prefer, leaving its shares overly depressed. For patient long-term investors, the shares offer an attractive, asymmetric potential return.
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the November 2022 issue.

At it most basic, investing is a mental game supplemented by a calculator. Our articles use one or both aspects to find attractive investing ideas.

Our first group covers enduring companies with out-of-favor stocks with theses well supported by a calculator. Our other articles discuss companies with deeper issues but whose shares have been so heavily sold that their risk/return trade-offs are highly attractive, even if their theses rely less on a calculator and more on pure contrarian instincts.

Our feature recommendation this month is a high-quality, well-capitalized bank that emphasizes credit card loans
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the October 2022 issue.

As stock prices tumble under the twin pressures of rising interest rates and the likely arrival of an economic downturn, just about every new stock pick is destined to be a disappointment. How does one select stocks in such an environment? While most fresh ideas will be near-term duds, there is an important purpose to picking new ideas. And, one doesn’t need to buy full positions right away. We screen for low P/E stocks on depressed 2023 earnings, with estimates for those earnings that are increasing. These make good stocks in which to take starter positions.

We also sorted through stocks with high dividend yields and highlight two picks and two pans (with enticing yields yet have serious dividend risks).

Our feature recommendation this month is Dow (DOW). Its shares have been sold by fearful investors, but the company’s low valuation doesn’t recognize the improvements in its financial strength and cost structure since the dark days of early 2020, nor the attractive yet sustainable dividend yield.
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the September 2022 issue.



One of our more productive methods for finding attractive turnaround stocks is to see what other like-minded investors are holding. We culled the list of hundreds of positions held by our evolving list of 50 or so preferred managers, as reported in the quarterly 13F filings, and discuss three of the most promising.



We also combed through the roster of stocks trading at low prices – another great source for turnaround stock ideas – and review four that have particular appeal.



Our feature recommendation this month is Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD). While most investors view this company as a “play” on streaming, we view it as an undervalued turnaround of the poorly managed WarnerMedia assets that it recently acquired from AT&T.

We note our recent ratings change of Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) from Buy to Sell.


Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the August 2022 issue.



When considering turnaround situations, our most-preferred catalyst is a chief executive officer change. When a business is sliding backwards, this could be exactly the change needed to restore its prosperity. For frustrated shareholders, the change can bring immense potential. We discuss six new CEO situations that look appealing.
Long ago, astute investors noticed that the stocks with the highest dividend yields in the Dow Jones Industrial Average tended to become the index’ best performers in future years. Following the recent market sell-off, we re-visited this group to look for interesting opportunities. We review six of the highest dividend yielding Dow stocks, and leave out three that have immense strategic and profit pressures.
Our feature recommendation this month is Volkswagen AG (VWAGY). The shares have plummeted after our timely sale last year for a 182% total return and we take this opportunity to repurchase them at the current low price. The financially sturdy company has a new CEO and another possible catalyst from a Porsche initial public offering.



We note our recent ratings change of Credit Suisse (CS) from Buy to a Sell.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the July 2022 issue.



As we approach the mid-point of the calendar year, we provide our traditional mid-year update for the stock market and high-yield bond market. Our commentary on stocks reviews what sectors worked (only one), what sectors and stocks stood out as the weakest, how the value vs. growth shift has played out so far, and what helped developed markets outside the United States limit the depth of their selloffs. We also discuss the state of two key drivers of future stock market performance, the role of the two “Easts,” and offer some advice on what not to do in this market, as well as a suggestion about what value investors might want to do.



Our call last year to avoid high-yield bonds, cousins of sorts to turnaround stocks, was spot-on. We walk through the effects of inflation on the two components of high bond yield prices, provide some historical perspective on yield spreads, and describe how only two of the three ingredients for a bankruptcy cycle are in place. We also suggest that while high-yield bonds are more attractive today than a year ago, it is still a time to be selective.



Our feature recommendation this month is ESAB Corporation (ESAB). This high-quality company was recently spun off from Colfax Corporation and checks nearly all of our boxes for an appealing turnaround stock, yet it is being overlooked as investors migrate to familiar stocks.



We note our recent ratings change of Marathon Oil (MRO) from Buy to a Sell.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the June 2022 issue.



While the stock market has surged since its pandemic low, shares of many companies have sold off sharply and now trade below their March 23, 2020 level. We touch on several different types of situations behind these sell-offs and highlight five stocks backed by reasonably healthy companies yet trade at attractive valuations. We also mention one additional stock that has significant potential but not under the current value-destroying management.



We delve into the investment management industry and highlight four stocks of companies that look appealing but are not generally on investors’ radar screens. Our featured recommendation this month is investment firm Janus Henderson Group (JHG). The company produces strong free cash flow, has a fortress balance sheet, offers an attractive 5.7% dividend yield and is under pressure from activist investor Trian Partners to improve its results.



We note our recent ratings change of Altria Group (MO) from Buy to a Sell.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the May 2022 issue.



One of the enduring features of the stock market is that near-term share prices are driven by momentum and narratives. While this may yield huge money-making stocks on the way up, losses can be devastating on the way down. Fortunately for value investors, downturns driven by negative momentum and unfavorable narratives can create impressively attractive opportunities.



We discuss two groups of stocks that fit this bill: homebuilders and stocks with valuations below 5x EV/EBITDA. Our featured recommendation this month is homebuilder M/I Homes (MHO), which trades at a large discount to its liquidation value despite what may be a reasonably steady industry over the next several years.



We note our recent move of Vistra Energy (VST) from a Buy to a Sell.


Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the April 2022 issue.



All companies are collections of assets. When companies are struggling, a new CEO can redirect how those assets are utilized – a valuable catalyst for a turnaround. We highlight three recent CEO changes and how they might help drive up the value of their companies.



While we have been slow and perhaps reluctant to consider cannabis companies, we find that the time has arrived to look more closely. We summarize our deep-dive into this emerging industry and its major participants, and suggest six companies with impressive growth yet trade at surprisingly low valuations.



Our featured recommendation this month is ZimVie (ZIMV), a company that was recently spun off from medical technology giant Zimmer Biomet. Its shares have been summarily sold by the market, creating what we believe is an attractive turnaround situation.



We note our second price target increase for Marathon Oil (MRO) and our move to sell shares of Baker Hughes (BKR).

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the March 2022 issue.



In what could be a low-return market over the coming decade, stocks of relatively boring companies have a better chance to shine. We highlight five companies with grind-it-out growth, low share valuations and often-generous dividends that could produce significant market-beating returns.



We also discuss six appealing stocks we found by trolling through the 13F/D filings of like-minded institutional investors.



Our featured recommendation this month is Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT). An investment in Goodyear is an opportunistic purchase of an average company whose shares have fallen sharply out of favor for what look like short-term reasons.



We note our recent price target increases for Wells Fargo (WFC), Marathon Oil (MRO) and Shell plc (SHEL).


Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the February 2022 issue.



The market seems to be ignoring small- cap stocks. We highlight four high-quality small- cap companies with beaten down share prices. And, amidst the rubble of initial public offerings, we found three worthwhile companies whose shares trade below their IPO price. We also briefly comment on the market’s recent sell-down, and provide an update on the performance of our group of recommended stocks, which have held their value so far this year.



Our featured recommendation this month is Polaris (PII), the leading North American manufacturer of powersports equipment including off-road vehicles, snowmobiles, motorcycles and boats. Investors are overly -discounting near-term issues, leaving the shares significantly undervalued.



We note our recent price target increase for Baker Hughes Company (BKR), from 26 to 31.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the January 2022 issue.

This issue includes our Top Five Stocks for 2022, our annual market review and outlook for 2022, as well as our update on the bankruptcy and high-yield bond markets.



Our featured recommendation this month is Brookfield Asset Management Reinsurance Partners Ltd (BAMR). This recent spin-off has received little market attention yet offers considerable long term potential.



We note our recent ratings change that moved shares of GCP Applied Technologies (GCP) to a Sell with a +77% total return.



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you. A great way to get more out of your letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

Updates
This note includes the Catalyst Report, a summary of the December edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday, and earnings from Duluth Holdings (DLTH).
Macy’s (M) – With a capable new CEO since February 2018, Macy’s is aggressively overhauling its store base, cost structure and e-commerce strategy to adapt to the secular shift away from mall-based stores. Macy’s acceleration of its overhaul shows considerable promise.
This week’s update includes commentary on earnings from Adient (ADNT), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B), Brookfield Reinsurance (BAMR), Elanco Animal Health (ELAN), TreeHouse Foods (THS), Viatris (VTRS) and ZimVie (ZIMV).
This week’s update includes commentary on earnings from Conduent (CNDT), ESAB (ESAB), Gannett (GCI), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT), Holcim (HCMLY), Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD), Kaman (KAMN), Molson Coors (TAP), Organon (OGN), Volkswagen (VWAGY), Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) and Western Union (WU).

Seatmaker Adient (ADNT) reported this morning with encouraging results – we’ll include more detailed commentary next week.

Next week, TreeHouse Foods (THS), Viatris (VTRS), Elanco Animal Health (ELAN), ZimVie (ZIMV), Brookfield Re (BAMR) and Toshiba (TOSYY) report earnings.
This note includes the Catalyst Report, a summary of the November edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday and earnings updates on 12 recommended companies.

This week, Dow (DOW) and Nokia (NOK) reported earnings. The deluge for our companies starts next week with twelve companies reporting.

Next week, we will publish the November edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter on Wednesday and our proprietary Catalyst Report on Friday.
For our recommended stocks, earnings season started this week with reports from Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and Wells Fargo (WFC). Next week, Nokia (NOK) reports, and the deluge for our companies starts the following week on October 24 with fourteen companies reporting.

For our recommended stocks, earnings season starts next week, led off by Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) on Thursday, October 13 and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Friday, October 14. The following week Mattel (MAT) and Nokia (NOK) report earnings. The earnings deluge for our companies starts the following week on October 24.
For our recommended stocks, earnings season starts next week, led off by Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) on Thursday, October 13 and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Friday, October 14. The following week Mattel (MAT) and Nokia (NOK) report earnings. The earnings deluge for our companies starts the following week on October 24.
This note includes the Catalyst Report, a summary of the October edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday, and bullet points of our podcast.

We encourage you to look through the Catalyst Report. This report is a listing of all of the companies that have reported a catalyst in the past month. These catalysts include new CEOs, activist activity, spin-offs and other possible game-changers. We source many of our feature recommendations from this list. You will find it nowhere else on Wall Street.
The stock market continues its downward slide as investors started to fully appreciate the pace and scale of rate hikes by central banks around the world. Still, several of our companies provided noteworthy updates, noted below and in our podcast.
While the market’s fireworks around the CPI data overshadowed most everything else this week, a few of our companies provided noteworthy updates, noted below and in our podcast.
Alerts
Moving Shell plc (SHEL) from Buy to Sell
oday, we are moving shares of Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) from Buy to Sell.
We are moving shares of Credit Suisse (CS) from Buy to Sell.
We are moving shares of Marathon Oil (MRO) from Buy to Sell.
We are moving shares of Altria (MO) from Buy to Sell. While the shares remain 21% below our $66 price target, the risk/return trade-off has become unfavorable.
We are moving shares of Baker Hughes (BKR) to a Sell. The shares have surged above our previously raised 31 price target (originally 23). Using optimistic yet realistic assumptions, we are hard-pressed to justify a BKR share price meaningfully above the current price.
We are moving shares of GCP Applied Technologies (GCP) to a Sell.
This morning, GCP Applied Technologies (GCP) announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by French construction materials company St. Gobain for $32/share in cash. This price is 14% above our $28 price target.
This afternoon we are moving shares of Signet Jewelers (SIG) from BUY to SELL.
This afternoon we are moving Albertsons (ACI) from BUY to SELL.
Oaktree reported a reasonably strong quarter, with net investment income (adjusted for the merger with Oaktree Strategic Income) of $0.19/share, sharply higher than $0.12 a year ago and the consensus estimate for $0.14. Net asset value, or NAV, increased 2% from the prior quarter and 19% from a year ago (despite paying out roughly 8% of its NAV in dividends during this period).
Moving Biogen (BIIB) from BUY to SELL.