So far, November’s markets have been a nice respite from the volatility of October, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average actually gained about 900 points. Investors—for the most part—seem to be ignoring China tariffs, impeachment hearings, and Brexit. And why not? After all, the economy remains strong and sentiment—as you’ll see in our Advisor Sentiment Barometer, as well as in our Market Views—remains very bullish.

The major indexes continue to hit new highs, all Cabot’s market timing indicators remain positive, and our portfolio is solid, with no particular worry spots today. Third-quarter earnings have been good to us.

Of course, that will change, and when it does, we will adjust our stance, but for now, we’re making hay while the sun shines—only downgrading one stock to hold today because it’s gotten too expensive.

As for today’s new recommendation, it’s an undervalued stock in a traditional industry, and paying a solid dividend to boot.

Details in the issue.

Current Market Outlook


When we did our research over the weekend, we really liked what we saw: Not only are the intermediate- and longer-term trends up for all the major indexes, the big-cap measures are in new high ground and, perhaps more importantly, we see a ton of recent breakouts acting well across a variety of industries. Combined with prior positive studies, we think the bull move has farther to run. That said, there are some minor worries to keep in mind—short-term sentiment measures are very complacent, and many leaders are also extended for the time being, meaning a rest/shakeout is a growing possibility. We think any pullback will offer up a bunch of solid entries, but in the meantime, it’s best to be a bit choosy on the buy side.

This week’s list has a nice collection of names that have either recently shown rare strength or have run for a few weeks and could make for solid pullback buys. Our Top Pick is Jabil (JBL), which is beginning to retreat after a major long-term breakout and advance.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)	82.24	37-39	33.5-35
Arconic (ARNC)	17.00	29.5-30.5	27-28
Boot Barn (BOOT)	43.24	41-43	37-38
Fortinet Inc. (FTNT)	137.53	98-102	89-91
Jabil Inc. (JBL)	41.50	37-38.5	34.5-35
KBR Inc. (KBR)	30.53	29-30	26.5-27
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)	123.40	110-113	100-102
Oshkosh (OSK)	95.04	88-90.5	80.5-81.5
Peloton (PTON)	53.03	27.5-30	23.5-25
Sea Limited (SE)	132.86	35-37	31.5-32.5

The nature of this newsletter is that 90% of our focus is centered on finding early-stage opportunities and vetting them. But to have investing success – in any type of stocks – over the long haul we must follow some basic portfolio management strategies.

This month I’m laying out five simple tips that you should follow when investing in the stock I feature in these pages. There is nothing that’s super innovative or worth discussing at a cocktail party here. No hedging or options trading techniques. Just solid, basic, common sense tips that will help you reduce risk, increase your probability of success, and sleep better at night.

Despite the headwinds of trade tensions and pundits worrying about China growth, our Explorer portfolio holdings Sea, Alibaba, Luckin Coffee and Huya all reported outstanding financial results this week.

The Emerging Markets (EEM) Timer is still positive as we introduce a new resource recommendation with operations at the very heart of Asia-Pacific growth.

The major indexes continue to hit new highs, all Cabot’s market timing indicators remain positive, and our portfolio is solid, with no particular worry spots today.

Of course, that will change, and when it does, we will adjust our stance, but there’s no predicting where the trouble will come from, so for the moment we’re standing pat with our portfolio, making no changes.

As for today’s new recommendation, it’s in a traditional industry, but growing fast thanks to acquisitions—and on a pullback right now that offers an attractive entry point.

Details in the issue.

Current Market Outlook


The major indexes have now rallied five weeks in a row, with most having at least eked out to new highs during that time. That push higher has created a few short-term yellow flags among overbought and sentiment measures; similar readings during the past few months have preceded multi-week, tedious retreats in the market. What happens this time around will be key: With the trends up and longer-term measures supportive, we’re optimistic the market has changed character for the better, but should the market and leading stocks suffer a deep retreat, that would probably put us back in the soup. In the meantime, we’re going with the evidence, which continues to improve both for the indexes and new leading stocks.

This week’s list has another round of stocks that have recently enjoyed outsized accumulation. It’s a tough choice, but our Top Pick is United Rentals (URI), which looks like a potential leader among cyclical stocks.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS)	0.00	66-69	58.5-60
Dexcom (DXCM)	421.36	196-205	177-181
InMode Ltd. (INMD)	38.86	40-43	34-36
Insulet (PODD)	175.69	168-174	154-156
MKS Instruments (MKSI)	109.43	108-112	97-99
State Street (STT)	79.42	69-71	62.5-63.5
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)	818.87	320-335	280-290
United Rentals, Inc. (URI)	0.00	151-156	136-138
Visteon (VC)	89.82	91-95	82-83.5
Winnebago (WGO)	48.56	47.5-49.5	42.5-43.5

We’ve been writing for months that the market’s next big move was likely up, and it now looks like that upmove could be underway, with the major indexes in uptrends, our market timing indicators looking good and little selling pressure recently despite a good run. Short-term, a dip wouldn’t be shocking to see, but the path of least resistance finally appears to be up.

The results are in for the month of April. It was fabulous. The S&P rose 9.6%, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.

Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.

Now before you call me crazy concerning today’s newsletter headline, hear me out.

Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”

The market is digesting the push and pull of higher oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve, prospects for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and fading momentum from the AI trade that helped push markets to all‑time highs earlier this month.

Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.

Yesterday, four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing 22% of the S&P 500’s market value, reported strong quarterly earnings that highlighted the importance of AI.

You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.

It’s been a glorious April following a miserable March for the market. What happens in May may determine which direction stocks are headed for the rest of the year.

That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.

What war? This market is moving on. We may not be out of the woods yet, but investors are looking beyond the Iran war.

Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30^th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.

The other day I was paid a visit by a roving ISP salesman who was pitching his company’s fledgling internet service over the local monopoly’s. We struck up a conversation and he asked what I did for a living. When I told him, his eyes lit up and he asked, “Got any good stocks you can recommend?”

Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation

Note: I’m out of town this week, so I’ll be a bit briefer on the update today—but I’m still checking my laptop a couple of times a day if you have any questions or comments. I’ll be back at my desk come Monday. Cheers.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.

Despite all the headline noise lately we’re marching deeper into first‑quarter earnings season with the market’s path of least resistance still pointing higher.

Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.

The old saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes,” is an apt one for the stock market these last two years.

In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.

The market turned on the afterburners. The S&P 500 made up all the March losses and catapulted to a brand new high in a remarkably short time. It’s a market that sure looks like it wants to go higher. But stocks are being held back this week by more war uncertainty.

The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.

The market came roaring back to new highs last week after a tough March. But the war isn’t over yet, and there could be more bouncing around in the weeks ahead.

Investors are clearly already looking past this war, as there is a high degree of optimism that hostilities will soon end. There is probably still a big rally or two left in the tank when the war actually ends. Sure, there is still headline risk in the meantime. But the war is clearly fading as the biggest market catalyst and giving way to earnings.

Our second recommendation is a short on an auto parts retailer, as a result of so-so sales.

Eight analysts have raised their EPS estimates on this home improvement retailer in the past 30 days.

This financial company is forecast to grow by more than 30% annually for the next five years.

This manufacturer of hi-tech beds is coming back from a rough quarter, but analysts expect it to produce 21.5% growth this year and 24.3% in 2019.

Our second recommendation is to sell the remaining shares of Weibo.

Revenues were up 59% in the most recent quarter for this Chinese tutoring company, and eight analysts have increased their EPS estimates in the past 30 days.

We’re selling our position in one stock today.

This medical device company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.09 last quarter and 13 analysts have increased their EPS estimates for the company in the past 30 days.

This defense company’s shares are just about at the buying level again.

We will provide the top five holdings in this Value fund.

Analysts expect this medical device company to post 20% annual growth for the next five years.

Analysts expect this blockchain company to grow at 19.5% annually over the next five years.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.