Issues
Let’s turn our attention to additional profitable opportunities
In that light, I added four extra stocks at the end of this month’s issue; bonus stocks that won’t permanently join the portfolios, but nevertheless offer excellent money-making opportunities today.
In that light, I added four extra stocks at the end of this month’s issue; bonus stocks that won’t permanently join the portfolios, but nevertheless offer excellent money-making opportunities today.
The major indexes have been hitting new highs in recent days, all Cabot’s market timing indicators are currently positive, and our portfolio looks good!
However, there is one sale—of a strong stock that now has less upside potential—as well as one downgrade to hold and one upgrade to buy. Details in the issue.
As to the new addition, with true growth stocks turning strong again, I’m recommending one of the strongest, a provider of hardware that enables ever-faster movement of data in the cloud-computing environment.
Details in the issue.
However, there is one sale—of a strong stock that now has less upside potential—as well as one downgrade to hold and one upgrade to buy. Details in the issue.
As to the new addition, with true growth stocks turning strong again, I’m recommending one of the strongest, a provider of hardware that enables ever-faster movement of data in the cloud-computing environment.
Details in the issue.
Current Market OutlookIt’s not a wild, rampaging bull market, but there’s no question the evidence has improved during the past couple of weeks—earnings season has offered more good than bad, with a decent number of positive reactions and breakouts, and for the first time in months, we’re seeing some follow-on buying (strength leading to more strength), which is typical of what you see in a sustained uptrend. There are still hurdles to overcome (most indexes are still testing the top of multi-month ranges), and short-term, investors are a touch complacent, so we wouldn’t be shocked to see some wiggles or further crosscurrents. But with more stocks acting well and with the trends of the major indexes pointed up, we think extending your line makes sense. We’re nudging our Market Monitor up to a level 7 on tonight’s issue.
This week’s list is chock-full of recent earnings winners, including many that appear to be early in new uptrends. Our Top Pick is Qorvo (QRVO), a well-traded chip maker that’s just staged a wild earnings gap. Start small and preferably on weakness.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) | 79.05 | ||
| Bristol-Myers (BMY) | 66.24 | ||
| Garmin (GRMN) | 97.45 | ||
| Inphi (IPHI) | 120.16 | ||
| Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG) | 49.79 | ||
| MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) | 66.65 | ||
| MurphyUSA (MUSA) | 118.21 | ||
| Qorvo (QRVO) | 129.47 | ||
| TopBuild (BLD) | 111.00 | ||
| TransDigm (TDG) | 599.41 |
This month we’re venturing into the services sector with a stock that fits the Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) strategy that’s come back into favor recently. This isn’t a high-flying stock with a new widget or software solution. It’s a pretty basic business really. In all likelihood, it’s insulated from trade wars, and even recessions too.
This little nugget is helping rebuild America’s infrastructure, one road at a time. With funding for road construction and repairs going up, and a long list of acquisition targets to roll into its business, this young company has a bright future.
All the details are inside the November Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
This little nugget is helping rebuild America’s infrastructure, one road at a time. With funding for road construction and repairs going up, and a long list of acquisition targets to roll into its business, this young company has a bright future.
All the details are inside the November Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
While the broad stock market reaches for new all-time record highs, companies that produce oil and natural gas remain heavily out-of-favor. Yet, with Big Oil stock prices down by as much as 60% since oil prices peaked at over $100/barrel in mid-2014, they look like high-yielding bargains.
In this issue, we outline our bullish outlook for six major oil companies.
In this issue, we outline our bullish outlook for six major oil companies.
Have you noticed that the chatter concerning the U.S.-China trade deal has gone down considerably? It probably reflects a good reset of expectations.
Our emerging markets timer is positive so it pays to be optimistic and keep investing in outstanding companies with strong fundamentals.
Today’s new recommendation has steadily rising net revenues, strong market position, a robust pipeline of products, an extensive family of patents as well as a strong cash flow and a strong balance sheet.
Our emerging markets timer is positive so it pays to be optimistic and keep investing in outstanding companies with strong fundamentals.
Today’s new recommendation has steadily rising net revenues, strong market position, a robust pipeline of products, an extensive family of patents as well as a strong cash flow and a strong balance sheet.
One year ago, soon after marijuana sales became legal in Canada, investors were throwing money at the sector, anxious to get a piece of the action. Today, the opposite is true—getting money for a cannabis business takes real work!
At a new all-time high, this is a tough market to navigate. Sure, the market could stay good for a while. But at this late-stage of the bull market and recovery, how much is left in the tank?
It’s hard to muster the enthusiasm to take on risk to get the last drop of this late stage bull market before the next downturn. While defensive stocks make a lot of sense here, most are very expensive. But there is one place where stock prices are still cheap, value stocks.
Investors have been rotating toward the long-neglected value stocks and they are starting to perk up. These stocks represent a way to get bargains in an expensive market as well as protection from the next downturn. And some stocks even have momentum.
In this issue, I highlight a stock that is one of the best healthcare companies in the world that is perfectly positioned ahead of the world’s most pronounced megatrend. It also offers great value in an expensive market and has recently found upward momentum.
It’s hard to muster the enthusiasm to take on risk to get the last drop of this late stage bull market before the next downturn. While defensive stocks make a lot of sense here, most are very expensive. But there is one place where stock prices are still cheap, value stocks.
Investors have been rotating toward the long-neglected value stocks and they are starting to perk up. These stocks represent a way to get bargains in an expensive market as well as protection from the next downturn. And some stocks even have momentum.
In this issue, I highlight a stock that is one of the best healthcare companies in the world that is perfectly positioned ahead of the world’s most pronounced megatrend. It also offers great value in an expensive market and has recently found upward momentum.
Many major indexes have hit new highs in recent days, and all Cabot’s market timing indicators are currently positive. Conclusion: it’s a bull market and you need to be heavily invested.
But, as always, you need to manage your portfolio. In our own portfolio, eight of our stocks have hit new highs in the past week, which is great. But two of the others are being downgraded to hold because their prospects are less secure.
As for today’s new recommendation, it’s a young, fast-growing company in a high-risk/high-potential market sector. It’s certainly not for everyone, but for aggressive investors, it could be fun.
But, as always, you need to manage your portfolio. In our own portfolio, eight of our stocks have hit new highs in the past week, which is great. But two of the others are being downgraded to hold because their prospects are less secure.
As for today’s new recommendation, it’s a young, fast-growing company in a high-risk/high-potential market sector. It’s certainly not for everyone, but for aggressive investors, it could be fun.
Current Market OutlookThe market had another constructive week, and today, the S&P 500 actually nosed out to new highs, with the Nasdaq close behind. While small- and mid-cap indexes are still further behind, the tenor of the overall market continues to improve—it’s likely not up and away, but the odds continue to favor the next big move being up. Individual stocks remain far trickier, with rotation occurring daily, but our thoughts from last week haven’t changed much: Given the many solid setups out there, a positive earnings season could launch a bunch of new leaders we can hop on (we think we’ve already highlighted some of them), but it’s still up to the bulls to produce a bunch more powerful breakouts in the indexes and individual stocks.
This week’s list is a mix of recent earnings winners and others that are set up nicely ahead of reports this week. Our Top Pick is Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), which might finally be getting going after years of ups and downs. Earnings are due Wednesday evening so handle with care.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) | 47.84 | ||
| Allegiant Travel (ALGT) | 170.65 | ||
| Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) | 81.02 | ||
| Lam Research (LRCX) | 268.47 | ||
| Pinduoduo (PDD) | 87.53 | ||
| Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) | 117.45 | ||
| Seattle Genetics (SGEN) | 150.85 | ||
| Teladoc, Inc. (TDOC) | 127.95 | ||
| Valero Energy (VLO) | 97.40 | ||
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) | 230.36 |
Updates
The results are in for the month of April. It was fabulous. The S&P rose 9.6%, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Now before you call me crazy concerning today’s newsletter headline, hear me out.
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
The market is digesting the push and pull of higher oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve, prospects for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and fading momentum from the AI trade that helped push markets to all‑time highs earlier this month.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Yesterday, four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing 22% of the S&P 500’s market value, reported strong quarterly earnings that highlighted the importance of AI.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
It’s been a glorious April following a miserable March for the market. What happens in May may determine which direction stocks are headed for the rest of the year.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
What war? This market is moving on. We may not be out of the woods yet, but investors are looking beyond the Iran war.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
The other day I was paid a visit by a roving ISP salesman who was pitching his company’s fledgling internet service over the local monopoly’s. We struck up a conversation and he asked what I did for a living. When I told him, his eyes lit up and he asked, “Got any good stocks you can recommend?”
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Note: I’m out of town this week, so I’ll be a bit briefer on the update today—but I’m still checking my laptop a couple of times a day if you have any questions or comments. I’ll be back at my desk come Monday. Cheers.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
Despite all the headline noise lately we’re marching deeper into first‑quarter earnings season with the market’s path of least resistance still pointing higher.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
The old saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes,” is an apt one for the stock market these last two years.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
The market turned on the afterburners. The S&P 500 made up all the March losses and catapulted to a brand new high in a remarkably short time. It’s a market that sure looks like it wants to go higher. But stocks are being held back this week by more war uncertainty.
The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.
The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.
The market came roaring back to new highs last week after a tough March. But the war isn’t over yet, and there could be more bouncing around in the weeks ahead.
Investors are clearly already looking past this war, as there is a high degree of optimism that hostilities will soon end. There is probably still a big rally or two left in the tank when the war actually ends. Sure, there is still headline risk in the meantime. But the war is clearly fading as the biggest market catalyst and giving way to earnings.
Investors are clearly already looking past this war, as there is a high degree of optimism that hostilities will soon end. There is probably still a big rally or two left in the tank when the war actually ends. Sure, there is still headline risk in the meantime. But the war is clearly fading as the biggest market catalyst and giving way to earnings.
Alerts
One stock is being sold, one is moving from Strong Buy to Buy and there’s price action on several others.
This Chinese human resources company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.15 in its latest quarter and Wall Street expects the company to grow by more than 24% in the next year.
Only lost 27 cents per share in the latest quarter.
This emerging markets fund is trading at a discount and is an opportunity to gain exposure to some large tech stocks.
Tonight we’re going to sell our remaining half position in one stock and hold the cash. (We sold the first half of our position on April 20 for a small profit.)
This homebuilder is on track for recovery, or perhaps, a buyout.
One stock moves from Strong Buy to Hold, and another moves from Strong Buy to Buy
This ETF offers an opportunity to invest in the lesser known midcap oil companies.
I’ve been pounding the table on “takeover stocks” for half a year now.
Our second idea is a sale of a stock experiencing seasonal weakness.
Our first recommendation is a small-cap fund.
One of the stocks in the portfolio reported strong earnings and a revenue beat—it moves from Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio to Growth Portfolio.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.