Issues
Current Market OutlookThe market had a brutal day today, with the major indexes (especially the Nasdaq, which had been the strongest index) plunging on big volume. (The reason, Facebook’s naughtiness, doesn’t matter much to us.) Today’s dramatic move calls into question the market’s recent rally—most indexes we track are still hovering above key support, but net-net, there hasn’t been any progress for the past eight to 10 weeks, which isn’t ideal. As for leading growth stocks, they did get hit today, though most remain in good shape on their charts. All in all, we’re still in favor of holding your strong, profitable stocks and giving them a chance to consolidate. But with the market evidently still not out of the woods, it’s best to go slow on the buy side and make sure you honor your stops and loss limits while we watch to see how the market reacts to this selling wave.
This week’s list is more full of what we’d term secondary leaders—still great potential, but not the liquid leaders we’ve seen pop up in recent weeks. One exception: Nutanix (NTNX), which looks like an emerging blue chip of sorts, is our Top Pick—pullbacks would be very tempting after its super-powerful breakout.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| AAXN (AAXN) | 87.11 | ||
| Baozun (BZUN) | 44.24 | ||
| HCA Healthcare (HCA) | 137.60 | ||
| Insulet (PODD) | 175.69 | ||
| Loxo Oncology (LOXO) | 186.59 | ||
| MKS Instruments (MKSI) | 109.43 | ||
| Nutanix (NTNX) | 55.91 | ||
| Pegasystems (PEGA) | 0.00 | ||
| PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) | 0.00 | ||
| Vipshop Holdings (VIPS) | 14.25 |
The charts and the fundamentals of leading growth are likely pointing toward a new sustained advance. With 22% cash, we’re building our Watch List and looking to put more money to work, ideally on dips or shakeouts.
The markets have been bouncing around lately, but as our contributors note in our Market Views section, “volatility can be your friend.” The dips can provide some great opportunities to pick up temporarily undervalued companies. And with the economy continuing to perform well, all signals for a longer bull run say go.
The market is strong, and the strongest sector of all is growth stocks; we have bunch hitting new highs. As to today’s recommendation, it’s a repeat, a stock we owned successfully last year and that looks good to enter again.
Current Market OutlookIt’s been a tricky few weeks, but by our measures, the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes has turned up, which is a sign to increase your exposure to the market’s leading stocks (preferably on pullbacks). And there are a lot of leaders to choose from! In particular, the growth stocks that bounced nicely off the market’s early-February low continue to perform excellently, displaying powerful and persistent action, which usually indicates more upside is in store (albeit with normal pullbacks and shakeouts along the way). We’re not viewing this as a blastoff, but more of a resumption of the market’s longer-term uptrend. Our Market Monitor moves up a couple of notches into bullish territory.
This week’s list is another one that’s filled with enticing growth stories and strong charts. There are a ton of good stocks to choose from, but we’re going with TD Ameritrade (AMTD) as our Top Pick, as it’s one of the strongest Bull Market stocks out there today.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) | 267.14 | ||
| Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) | 43.31 | ||
| Palo Alto Networks (PANW) | 236.92 | ||
| Qualys (QLYS) | 0.00 | ||
| Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) | 120.93 | ||
| TD Ameritrade (AMTD) | 0.00 | ||
| Teladoc, Inc. (TDOC) | 127.95 | ||
| Twitter (TWTR) | 40.37 | ||
| Western Digital Corporation (WDC) | 0.00 | ||
| Zillow (Z) | 76.64 |
With a bumpy market to work with and a few stocks still to report earnings, we take a look at the political risks to the portfolio. We also shift our focus to Brazil, where we find an unusual commodity company and a fresh airline stock to consider.
In this month’s issue, I introduce two new stocks, recommend selling two stocks and change one position from Buy to Hold. I’m consciously changing the portfolio into more defensive stocks to guard against inflationary fears.
I’m really trying to avoid buying high—so today’s selection is an undervalued stock that recently had a great correction and is now working its way back up.
Updates
WHAT TO DO NOW: Big picture, the market and most leaders look great, and our market timing indicators are in fine shape. Near-term, though, there’s little doubt things have gotten a bit giddy, with many names and indexes extended to the upside. Tonight, we’re placing Cava (CAVA) on Hold as that stock has been caught up in some group weakness; we’ll hold our 45% cash position for now, but stay tuned, as we’d like to add some new names (or add to existing names) in the near future.
What a difference a month can make! What an April! The S&P rose 9.6% in April, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.
The results are in for the month of April. It was fabulous. The S&P rose 9.6%, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Now before you call me crazy concerning today’s newsletter headline, hear me out.
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
The market is digesting the push and pull of higher oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve, prospects for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and fading momentum from the AI trade that helped push markets to all‑time highs earlier this month.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Yesterday, four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing 22% of the S&P 500’s market value, reported strong quarterly earnings that highlighted the importance of AI.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
It’s been a glorious April following a miserable March for the market. What happens in May may determine which direction stocks are headed for the rest of the year.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
What war? This market is moving on. We may not be out of the woods yet, but investors are looking beyond the Iran war.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
The other day I was paid a visit by a roving ISP salesman who was pitching his company’s fledgling internet service over the local monopoly’s. We struck up a conversation and he asked what I did for a living. When I told him, his eyes lit up and he asked, “Got any good stocks you can recommend?”
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Note: I’m out of town this week, so I’ll be a bit briefer on the update today—but I’m still checking my laptop a couple of times a day if you have any questions or comments. I’ll be back at my desk come Monday. Cheers.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
Despite all the headline noise lately we’re marching deeper into first‑quarter earnings season with the market’s path of least resistance still pointing higher.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
The old saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes,” is an apt one for the stock market these last two years.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
Alerts
We are downgrading this stock from the Buy and Long-Term Buy lists after the company posted a disappointing December quarter and gave mixed guidance for 2017.
The market suffered its worst day in months today, with the Dow down 238 points and the Nasdaq finished down 108 points.
This semiconductor company is forecast to grow at a 66.7% rate in 2017 and 80% next year.
The shares of this electronics company just crossed its 50-day moving average—a bullish indicator.
Adobe Systems (ADBE) reported first-quarter 2017 earnings yesterday (November year-end), after the market closed. The company outperformed analysts’ estimates by a good margin, and also increased second-quarter expectations.
This Fidelity Select Fund is a diversified way to participate in the recovery of the natural gas industry through strong companies.
This spin-off from Alcoa is expected to grow at a 35.5% rate next year.
One new stock joins the Growth & Income Portfolio, plus updates on three other stocks.
On March 20, this financial firm will become part of the S&P 500 index. The added visibility should help propel the company to the double-digit growth that Wall Street is expecting.
This semiconductor company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.02 last quarter, and is forecast to grow at a triple-digit rate this year and next.
This company is a play on the Internet of Things, as well as rising auto sales.
Sell one of our stocks. There is nothing wrong at the company, and earnings are growing at an attractive rate. However, the share price is quite fairly valued, with the 2018 EPS and dividend growth rates equal to the 2018 P/E.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.