Issues
Despite the headwinds of trade tensions and pundits worrying about China growth, our Explorer portfolio holdings Sea, Alibaba, Luckin Coffee and Huya all reported outstanding financial results this week.
The Emerging Markets (EEM) Timer is still positive as we introduce a new resource recommendation with operations at the very heart of Asia-Pacific growth.
The Emerging Markets (EEM) Timer is still positive as we introduce a new resource recommendation with operations at the very heart of Asia-Pacific growth.
The major indexes continue to hit new highs, all Cabot’s market timing indicators remain positive, and our portfolio is solid, with no particular worry spots today.
Of course, that will change, and when it does, we will adjust our stance, but there’s no predicting where the trouble will come from, so for the moment we’re standing pat with our portfolio, making no changes.
As for today’s new recommendation, it’s in a traditional industry, but growing fast thanks to acquisitions—and on a pullback right now that offers an attractive entry point.
Details in the issue.
Of course, that will change, and when it does, we will adjust our stance, but there’s no predicting where the trouble will come from, so for the moment we’re standing pat with our portfolio, making no changes.
As for today’s new recommendation, it’s in a traditional industry, but growing fast thanks to acquisitions—and on a pullback right now that offers an attractive entry point.
Details in the issue.
Current Market OutlookThe major indexes have now rallied five weeks in a row, with most having at least eked out to new highs during that time. That push higher has created a few short-term yellow flags among overbought and sentiment measures; similar readings during the past few months have preceded multi-week, tedious retreats in the market. What happens this time around will be key: With the trends up and longer-term measures supportive, we’re optimistic the market has changed character for the better, but should the market and leading stocks suffer a deep retreat, that would probably put us back in the soup. In the meantime, we’re going with the evidence, which continues to improve both for the indexes and new leading stocks.
This week’s list has another round of stocks that have recently enjoyed outsized accumulation. It’s a tough choice, but our Top Pick is United Rentals (URI), which looks like a potential leader among cyclical stocks.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS) | 0.00 | ||
| Dexcom (DXCM) | 421.36 | ||
| InMode Ltd. (INMD) | 38.86 | ||
| Insulet (PODD) | 175.69 | ||
| MKS Instruments (MKSI) | 109.43 | ||
| State Street (STT) | 79.42 | ||
| Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) | 818.87 | ||
| United Rentals, Inc. (URI) | 0.00 | ||
| Visteon (VC) | 89.82 | ||
| Winnebago (WGO) | 48.56 |
We’ve been writing for months that the market’s next big move was likely up, and it now looks like that upmove could be underway, with the major indexes in uptrends, our market timing indicators looking good and little selling pressure recently despite a good run. Short-term, a dip wouldn’t be shocking to see, but the path of least resistance finally appears to be up.
Let’s turn our attention to additional profitable opportunities
In that light, I added four extra stocks at the end of this month’s issue; bonus stocks that won’t permanently join the portfolios, but nevertheless offer excellent money-making opportunities today.
In that light, I added four extra stocks at the end of this month’s issue; bonus stocks that won’t permanently join the portfolios, but nevertheless offer excellent money-making opportunities today.
The major indexes have been hitting new highs in recent days, all Cabot’s market timing indicators are currently positive, and our portfolio looks good!
However, there is one sale—of a strong stock that now has less upside potential—as well as one downgrade to hold and one upgrade to buy. Details in the issue.
As to the new addition, with true growth stocks turning strong again, I’m recommending one of the strongest, a provider of hardware that enables ever-faster movement of data in the cloud-computing environment.
Details in the issue.
However, there is one sale—of a strong stock that now has less upside potential—as well as one downgrade to hold and one upgrade to buy. Details in the issue.
As to the new addition, with true growth stocks turning strong again, I’m recommending one of the strongest, a provider of hardware that enables ever-faster movement of data in the cloud-computing environment.
Details in the issue.
Current Market OutlookIt’s not a wild, rampaging bull market, but there’s no question the evidence has improved during the past couple of weeks—earnings season has offered more good than bad, with a decent number of positive reactions and breakouts, and for the first time in months, we’re seeing some follow-on buying (strength leading to more strength), which is typical of what you see in a sustained uptrend. There are still hurdles to overcome (most indexes are still testing the top of multi-month ranges), and short-term, investors are a touch complacent, so we wouldn’t be shocked to see some wiggles or further crosscurrents. But with more stocks acting well and with the trends of the major indexes pointed up, we think extending your line makes sense. We’re nudging our Market Monitor up to a level 7 on tonight’s issue.
This week’s list is chock-full of recent earnings winners, including many that appear to be early in new uptrends. Our Top Pick is Qorvo (QRVO), a well-traded chip maker that’s just staged a wild earnings gap. Start small and preferably on weakness.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) | 79.05 | ||
| Bristol-Myers (BMY) | 66.24 | ||
| Garmin (GRMN) | 97.45 | ||
| Inphi (IPHI) | 120.16 | ||
| Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG) | 49.79 | ||
| MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) | 66.65 | ||
| MurphyUSA (MUSA) | 118.21 | ||
| Qorvo (QRVO) | 129.47 | ||
| TopBuild (BLD) | 111.00 | ||
| TransDigm (TDG) | 599.41 |
This month we’re venturing into the services sector with a stock that fits the Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) strategy that’s come back into favor recently. This isn’t a high-flying stock with a new widget or software solution. It’s a pretty basic business really. In all likelihood, it’s insulated from trade wars, and even recessions too.
This little nugget is helping rebuild America’s infrastructure, one road at a time. With funding for road construction and repairs going up, and a long list of acquisition targets to roll into its business, this young company has a bright future.
All the details are inside the November Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
This little nugget is helping rebuild America’s infrastructure, one road at a time. With funding for road construction and repairs going up, and a long list of acquisition targets to roll into its business, this young company has a bright future.
All the details are inside the November Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
Updates
For value-focused investors, this year’s prologue has been a welcome change from the turmoil experienced in early 2025.
In just the past few weeks, some of last year’s most ignored or underappreciated laggards have posted outsized gains, with rallies that have made even momentum-driven tech stock traders envious. Even more remarkable is the fact that much of that strength has been concentrated in ultra-defensive areas of the market like consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.
In just the past few weeks, some of last year’s most ignored or underappreciated laggards have posted outsized gains, with rallies that have made even momentum-driven tech stock traders envious. Even more remarkable is the fact that much of that strength has been concentrated in ultra-defensive areas of the market like consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.
The market rotation continues to be the main story out there this week, though rumblings of a potential strike on Iran, an update from the January FOMC meeting, and a slew of earnings reports and economic data releases have been giving investors plenty to think about.
In terms of the rotation, the equal‑weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) is up 5.5% so far this year, illustrating that leadership is broadening beyond the narrow group of mega‑cap stocks that drove much of last year’s performance.
Year to date, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index is up 8.3% and the S&P 400 Mid‑Cap Index is up 7.9%. Both are comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up just 0.1%, and the Nasdaq, which is down 2.1%.
In terms of the rotation, the equal‑weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) is up 5.5% so far this year, illustrating that leadership is broadening beyond the narrow group of mega‑cap stocks that drove much of last year’s performance.
Year to date, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index is up 8.3% and the S&P 400 Mid‑Cap Index is up 7.9%. Both are comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up just 0.1%, and the Nasdaq, which is down 2.1%.
Happy Chinese New Year! The year of the horse is upon us.
China is expecting an incredible 9.5 billion trips to be made during the 40-day Lunar New Year travel period. Chinese automakers are also on the move as the country’s numerous brands sold nearly 200,000 vehicles in Britain last year, doubling their market share to almost 10%.
China is expecting an incredible 9.5 billion trips to be made during the 40-day Lunar New Year travel period. Chinese automakers are also on the move as the country’s numerous brands sold nearly 200,000 vehicles in Britain last year, doubling their market share to almost 10%.
As U.S. investors have shifted from risk-on to risk-off mode in recent months, a clear disparity between the “haves” and the “have-nots” has materialized.
Let’s start with the “have-nots.” Financials have fared the worst so far this year (-4.7%), followed by technology (-3.1%), communication services and consumer discretionary (-2.8% each). The downturn in the two tech-related sectors in particular is a stark departure from recent years, when technology led the charge of the current bull market.
Let’s start with the “have-nots.” Financials have fared the worst so far this year (-4.7%), followed by technology (-3.1%), communication services and consumer discretionary (-2.8% each). The downturn in the two tech-related sectors in particular is a stark departure from recent years, when technology led the charge of the current bull market.
Cyclical stocks are soaring and technology is floundering in the transformed market.
The bull market is turned upside down. For most of the first three years, technology, and particularly AI stocks, soared while most other stocks did very little. Now, previously meandering stocks are killing it while technology sinks.
The bull market is turned upside down. For most of the first three years, technology, and particularly AI stocks, soared while most other stocks did very little. Now, previously meandering stocks are killing it while technology sinks.
Strong fourth-quarter earnings are confirming what the market was already doing.
Current estimates based on earnings reported so far are for 13.2% overall S&P earnings growth for the quarter. It’s a solid quarter and the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In terms of sector performance, cyclical companies are killing it, and technology is floundering, just like before earnings.
Current estimates based on earnings reported so far are for 13.2% overall S&P earnings growth for the quarter. It’s a solid quarter and the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In terms of sector performance, cyclical companies are killing it, and technology is floundering, just like before earnings.
Like many coffee aficionados, I have something of a love/hate relationship with Starbucks (SBUX). My main gripe is that the company’s food and beverage offerings have always been pricey compared to the fare served in most fast-food restaurants and run-of-the-mill coffee houses.
The outperformance of small caps continues.
Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 600 is up 10% year to date versus just 1.6% for the S&P 500.
All but three small-cap sectors are outperforming their large-cap counterpart. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+20%), energy (+23%), industrials (+17%), and tech (+11.4%).
Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 600 is up 10% year to date versus just 1.6% for the S&P 500.
All but three small-cap sectors are outperforming their large-cap counterpart. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+20%), energy (+23%), industrials (+17%), and tech (+11.4%).
Let’s talk about the power of staying invested.
Sure, when the market turns south – and I’m not even sure last week’s mini-dip qualifies – it makes sense to pare back on your weakest stocks and put a larger portion of your portfolio in cash. But taking your ball and going home – selling out of all of your stocks when times are tough – is not a winning strategy. Here’s why.
Sure, when the market turns south – and I’m not even sure last week’s mini-dip qualifies – it makes sense to pare back on your weakest stocks and put a larger portion of your portfolio in cash. But taking your ball and going home – selling out of all of your stocks when times are tough – is not a winning strategy. Here’s why.
NOTE: We’re sending this a day early as I’m soon to embark on a trip with the kiddos over the next week. I will be working a good amount from the road, though, and will have updates if need be. Also, next week’s issue will be published as scheduled.
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WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains very mixed, with growth measures still generally pointed sideways to down, while the broad market remains in solid shape. What’s interesting, though, is that we’re seeing more growth stocks kick into gear, along with some huge buying action in a few “cyclical growth” names. Tonight we’re making one move—adding a half-sized stake in Macom Tech (MTSI)—but are keeping our eyes open for a broader character change among growth stocks. Our cash position will be around 53%.
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WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains very mixed, with growth measures still generally pointed sideways to down, while the broad market remains in solid shape. What’s interesting, though, is that we’re seeing more growth stocks kick into gear, along with some huge buying action in a few “cyclical growth” names. Tonight we’re making one move—adding a half-sized stake in Macom Tech (MTSI)—but are keeping our eyes open for a broader character change among growth stocks. Our cash position will be around 53%.
Today could be a big day for cannabis stocks.
The reason: We may get an important update on the rescheduling timeline.
Cannabis investors will be watching closely today to see whether Attorney General Pam Bondi offers a rescheduling update when she appears before the House Judiciary Committee. Upbeat comments could spark a sharp cannabis sector rally. The hearing starts at 10 a.m. EST.
The reason: We may get an important update on the rescheduling timeline.
Cannabis investors will be watching closely today to see whether Attorney General Pam Bondi offers a rescheduling update when she appears before the House Judiciary Committee. Upbeat comments could spark a sharp cannabis sector rally. The hearing starts at 10 a.m. EST.
I’m excited to share a couple of enhancements to Cabot Early Opportunities —improvements designed to sharpen our focus and better help you stay on top of the stocks we own.
Alerts
This tech company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.06 last quarter and Wall Street is forecasting that the company will grow at a 54.64% annual rate for the next five years.
It was a volatile and divergent day in the market, with the Dow rising 198 points but the Nasdaq fell one point and growth stocks got hit very hard, registering one of their worst days of the year. As a result, we are selling 1/3 of a position and moving another position to hold.
The shares of this tech company were also recently initiated at Guggenheim with a ‘Buy’ rating.
This pharmaceutical company is expected to grow at an annual rate of 31.67% for the next five years.
Blackstone Group reported second quarter economic net income (ENI) of $0.90, above all analysts’ estimates.
The top five holdings of this fund are: Vail Resorts Inc (MTN, 0.66% of assets); PTC Inc (PTC, 0.64%); Burlington Stores Inc (BURL, 0.61%); Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY, 0.60%); and GrubHub Inc (GRUB, 0.56%).
This defense and aerospace company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.02 last quarter, and forecasts for this year are for 14.5% growth.
This home retailer beat analysts’ estimates by $.0.04 last quarter and is expected to grow at a 25% annual rate during the next five years.
This tech company’s shares were just initiated at Evercore ISI Group, with an ‘Outperform’ rating and upgraded at Deutsche Bank, to ‘Buy’.
Bank of America (BAC) reported a big second-quarter earnings beat this morning.
Our second recommendation is some profit-taking.
Our first idea is a healthcare company that beat analysts’ estimates by $0.02 last quarter.
Portfolios
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.