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Stock Market

Investing in the stock market has always been an effective way to build wealth. In fact, it’s consistently proven to be the most effective wealth generator over the long term.

And, with persistent inflation an ongoing issue and the Federal Reserve poised to cut rates sooner rather than later, investing in stocks may be one of the few places investors will be able to generate consistent, inflation-beating returns for their savings.

Of course, stock market investing comes with more risk than a safe, low-yield savings account. Inevitably, not all of your investments will be winners.

In investing, no one really knows for sure what’s going to happen. Over time, however, stocks tend to rise. History tells us this. Since 1928, the average annual return in the S&P 500, the benchmark U.S. stock index, is 10%. So historically, a well-diversified portfolio of stocks should allow you to just about double your investment once every seven years.

Now, there are periods where returns in the stock market underperform the average. Every few years we encounter corrections and bear markets, as we did in 2022 and 2018, and the years after the Great Recession and dotcom bust.

But over a longer time horizon, those off years are more than offset by the performance in bull markets. If you invested in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2014 and simply held that investment, you would have weathered the 2018 correction, the pandemic sell-off, and the 2022 bear market. And you’d have generated 16.5% annual returns.

You wouldn’t think that, with a correction, a pandemic and a bear market, the last decade would be anything to write home about, but those numbers speak for themselves. Despite the fear and negative headlines, investing over the last 10 years has beaten the historical average by more than 50% each year.

But, of course, your return would have depended on what stocks you actually bought. Take General Electric (GE), for example. GE is an iconic American company. As recently as 2009 it was the largest company in the world.

But had you bought GE at the beginning of 2014, you would have lost 0.7% every year, and that’s assuming you reinvested your dividends. Without dividend reinvestment, your returns would have been even worse.

That kind of unpredictability scares some people away from investing in the stock market. The track record over time should be enough to convince you otherwise.

The stock market is a vast and ever-evolving place, and there are many ways to approach stock market investing.

Want to invest in safe companies that offer a steady stream of income? You’re probably a dividend investor.

Are you willing to take on a bit more risk to go after bigger, faster rewards? Growth investing is likely for you.

Value investing is for investors who like to bargain shop.

Options trading is for those who like to invest based on statistical probabilities. And so on.

At Cabot Wealth Network, we have something for every investor. Our investment advisories cater to a variety of risk tolerances and timetables, depending on your preference. Since 1970, we’ve been helping investors of all experience levels achieve market-beating returns, helping our readers double their money more than 30 times over.

When done right, investing in the stock market can be a hugely profitable endeavor. For more than a half-century, we’ve been helping investors maximize those profits—and hope to continue doing so for another 50 years.

Stock Market Post Archives
Back at the beginning of this email, I mentioned the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). I’m a life member; they made me an offer I couldn’t refuse about a decade ago, and I expect to come out ahead on the deal. Anyway, AAII regularly tests investing systems to see which ones perform best, and over the long run, two systems stand head-and-shoulders above the rest. The first is the CANSLIM approach advocated by Investor’s Business Daily (IBD). The second is Martin Zweig’s system.
Of course, I couldn’t finish this weekend’s Wealth Advisory without at least mentioning the overall market. In case you missed it ... the sellers have taken control. But the most important thing is that the sellers had taken control of most stocks before this week - I wrote two weeks ago about how there was a growing divergence between the few leading glamour stocks and the broad market.
Legalizing marijuana would not only create a great new source of revenue, it would also bring quality control to the industry, create thousands of new legal jobs, and - best of all - stop the practice of imprisoning people who were only working to make a buck by filling the market’s demand ... which could save us many billions of dollars a year, reduce ancillary violent crime, return people to the labor force and make families whole again.
Crocs, the maker of the deliciously comfortable, horrendously ugly shoes reported its earnings on Wednesday, October 31 after the market closed. The good news is that the company’s profits more than doubled, reaching $0.66 a share vs. $0.25 for Q3 last year. This profit exceeded expectations by a few cents. Hurrah. But when the company issued its outlook for total 2007 earnings, raising its guidance by about a nickel over last quarter’s estimate, the Street wasn’t pleased.
It’s the largest provider of cell phone service in Turkey, with a 60% market share, and it’s named, appropriately enough, Turkcell. The firm’s ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) trade on the NYSE under the symbol TKC. With 32 million subscribers, Turkcell is the third-largest provider of GSM service in Europe. It has $5 billion in annual revenues; it’s expected to grow earnings 42% this year and 21% in 2008; and it pays an annual dividend of 3.8%!
For a long time, I’ve had a note to myself saying I should write about witch-hunts. And now, as the clock ticks toward Halloween, is the perfect time to do so. My status as a native and lifelong resident of Salem, Massachusetts means I know a fair amount about the historical kind, and my decades observing and analyzing the behavior of investors, who can act rational as individuals but who combine to form irrational crowds, means I’ve experienced many of the modern kind.
Here’s the funny thing: I’m not describing 2007. I’m talking about 1998, a year that’s paralleling this one so closely I believe it’s prudent to look back before looking ahead.
Of course, six months is far too short a period in which to judge a value-oriented investment. More important, Warren Buffett, as far as we know, never paid more than 82 for his shares. Those folks who deluded themselves into thinking they were following the master when they were buying above 90 were only getting half the equation right. They forgot the importance of price.
There is a doom-and-gloom quality to much of the talk about the subprime crisis. The reasoning is that this wad of bad debt is hanging like an enormous boulder over the stock market highway, and that when it falls, the world as we know it will essentially end. In this regard, it’s a lot like assertions that the U.S. national debt (or current account balance or poor educational system or declining manufacturing base, etc.) will ruin everything forever.
First, Baidu (BIDU) is the Chinese equivalent of Google. Both companies get 99% of their revenue by presenting ads to Internet users. But Baidu is just 1% of the size of Google, as measured by revenues, and 5% the size as measured by market capitalization. And it’s growing twice as fast as Google. Furthermore, Baidu’s market penetration is far less than Google’s and it’s addressing a far larger population, so its growth prospects are substantially greater.
So on to the stock. To refresh your memory, Force Protection is a South Carolina company with $340 million in annual sales that makes trucks for the military ... trucks that resist the force of various explosive devices. The majority of these vehicles are bought by the U.S. government, and they’ve proven quite valuable in Iraq. Some have been sold to Canada. And last Monday the British government, which has already bought 100, ordered 140 more.
I think one such stock is VeriFone Holdings (PAY), which is benefiting from the same mega-trend as MasterCard (MA) - more people are paying with plastic instead of cash, especially in developing countries. Here’s what I wrote about the firm in Cabot Top Ten Report, where it earned a spot due to the stock’s powerful breakout…
Trends are up, but overextended, suggesting that a normal correction is likely. Our Hi-Lo Alert, which measures the number of Dow stocks above their medium-term moving averages, is at its highest point since May, just two weeks before the market got very rocky and embarked on the course that took it down to the August low.
In general, I like this trend and I think it has a long way to go … but there are two risks to be aware of today. The first is market risk. While the rebound over the past six weeks has been awesomely profitable for leading stocks - the ones being driven by institutional buying - the breadth of the market is not quite good enough to allow me to relax. I still fear that a “re-test” of that August low may still be possible.
Which brings me to the state of the stock market today. My strongest thought today is that while the headlines are absolutely glum, forecasting recession, lamenting the prospect of $100 per barrel oil, and worrying that the Chinese, the Mexicans and the Arabs (to name just three) threaten our American way of life …the market is very strong!