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Stock Market

Investing in the stock market has always been an effective way to build wealth. In fact, it’s consistently proven to be the most effective wealth generator over the long term.

And, with persistent inflation an ongoing issue and the Federal Reserve poised to cut rates sooner rather than later, investing in stocks may be one of the few places investors will be able to generate consistent, inflation-beating returns for their savings.

Of course, stock market investing comes with more risk than a safe, low-yield savings account. Inevitably, not all of your investments will be winners.

In investing, no one really knows for sure what’s going to happen. Over time, however, stocks tend to rise. History tells us this. Since 1928, the average annual return in the S&P 500, the benchmark U.S. stock index, is 10%. So historically, a well-diversified portfolio of stocks should allow you to just about double your investment once every seven years.

Now, there are periods where returns in the stock market underperform the average. Every few years we encounter corrections and bear markets, as we did in 2022 and 2018, and the years after the Great Recession and dotcom bust.

But over a longer time horizon, those off years are more than offset by the performance in bull markets. If you invested in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2014 and simply held that investment, you would have weathered the 2018 correction, the pandemic sell-off, and the 2022 bear market. And you’d have generated 16.5% annual returns.

You wouldn’t think that, with a correction, a pandemic and a bear market, the last decade would be anything to write home about, but those numbers speak for themselves. Despite the fear and negative headlines, investing over the last 10 years has beaten the historical average by more than 50% each year.

But, of course, your return would have depended on what stocks you actually bought. Take General Electric (GE), for example. GE is an iconic American company. As recently as 2009 it was the largest company in the world.

But had you bought GE at the beginning of 2014, you would have lost 0.7% every year, and that’s assuming you reinvested your dividends. Without dividend reinvestment, your returns would have been even worse.

That kind of unpredictability scares some people away from investing in the stock market. The track record over time should be enough to convince you otherwise.

The stock market is a vast and ever-evolving place, and there are many ways to approach stock market investing.

Want to invest in safe companies that offer a steady stream of income? You’re probably a dividend investor.

Are you willing to take on a bit more risk to go after bigger, faster rewards? Growth investing is likely for you.

Value investing is for investors who like to bargain shop.

Options trading is for those who like to invest based on statistical probabilities. And so on.

At Cabot Wealth Network, we have something for every investor. Our investment advisories cater to a variety of risk tolerances and timetables, depending on your preference. Since 1970, we’ve been helping investors of all experience levels achieve market-beating returns, helping our readers double their money more than 30 times over.

When done right, investing in the stock market can be a hugely profitable endeavor. For more than a half-century, we’ve been helping investors maximize those profits—and hope to continue doing so for another 50 years.

Stock Market Post Archives
Yesterday afternoon, my wife and I returned from a two-week trip to India. The experience was absolutely marvelous, rich in warmth and beauty, yet at the same time colored by the substantial economic challenges that face the country of 1.1 billion people. While I was gone, the Dow dropped another 10%, the S&P 500 lost 14% and the Nasdaq plunged 16%. Happily, all our Cabot growth-oriented letters have been recommending a heavy cash orientation for many months so this continued erosion has brought little pain.
Last week I ranted about overspending by American consumers and I received many interesting responses through email and the blog. I’ve included some of the best rants in today’s issue, but if you haven’t sent yours in, feel free to do so at any time. Enjoy!
To say that we live in historic times would be an understatement. We’ve all been shaken by more earth-shaking news in just the past few months than we’ve seen in the prior decade. There’s been the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the disappearance of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual and Wachovia, the TARP rescue plan and now the potential bailout of the Detroit automakers. Oh, and did we mention hedge fund redemptions and failures, and now commercial real estate problems?!? And the market, of course, has reacted.
I don’t mind telling you that these are scary and depressing times for investors. One wave of bad news no sooner breaks over us than another one--even bigger--appears. The American banking and auto industries are circling the drain, and the Dow, which was within spitting distance of 14,000 just a year ago is now, having cracked the 8,000 level, trying to decide whether to rest there for a while or just plunge further. All in all, it’s enough to make you turn off your TV, limit your newspaper reading to the sports and funnies and abandon your computer for your game console. At least in World of Warcraft, you know the rules.
For the year so far, Cabot Green Investor subscribers have enjoyed some big winning picks, like American Superconductor (AMSC), a wind company that gave us a 40% profit on in just six weeks this summer. There is no denying that with the market crash of October we’re down, but just in the single-digits as of early November. I know that’s a lot like a pitcher bragging about an eight-inning complete game, but we’re proud of how our adherence to a proven formula has put us far ahead of the competition. The simple fact is, the more you conserve now, the more you have for later. That’s true both in your winter energy bill, and your investment portfolio.
After years of buying gadgets, cars and whole wardrobes on credit, the gravy train has stopped. Not only has it stopped, it’s derailed and is hurtling off of a cliff. Many people have locked up their purses and wallets, cut up their credit cards and stopped spending money. American consumers are spent.
Many years ago, I was taught to believe that value investing, using fundamental analysis, is the best long-term approach when making investment decisions. In the years since, I learned some growth and momentum techniques as well. I never argue whether one approach is better than another. But I do believe in using more than one methodology when choosing stocks to diversify my portfolio. Thus my portfolio contains a mixture of growth stocks and value stocks.
Three months ago a reader wrote: “Timothy, I look forward to your writings everyday. You are definitely doing your part in the BATTLE TO SAVE AMERICA’S BRAINS!” I responded by saying I liked the phrase and might borrow it. But I’ve never found quite the right place to use it. It’s a bit grand. All I’m trying to do is communicate some intelligent thoughts, get you to think a little, and maybe subscribe to some of our investment advice.
Whether or not you agree with the outcome of Tuesday’s presidential election, there’s one pledge that President-elect Barack Obama made that will benefit all of us, as citizens and investors--his energy plan. For too long, we’ve had administration after administration that failed to recognize the energy problems we are facing now and will face in the future. Finally, we have a leader who is promising to reduce greenhouse gases, get the U.S. off its dependence on foreign oil and create Green jobs.
The economic news is probably going to get worse before it gets better, but it’s likely that the stock market won’t care. The stock market looks ahead and has probably already priced in most of the economic downtown. So be prepared for once-in-a-lifetime bad economic readings, but don’t expect the stock market to follow them down.
Markets don’t stay down forever, and this historic selloff has created a whole raft of bargain stocks. There’s just one problem. How do you know when to get back into the market? Here’s an easy way to tell, one that’s based on one of Cabot’s powerful set of market timing indicators, the Cabot Tides.
Our financial system lies in shambles, and the dominoes continue to fall, bringing down companies and stocks in one sector after another. Consumer confidence is absolutely terrible. Friends who previously asked about my market opinion simply as a common courtesy now ask because they’re genuinely worried about their own retirement funds ... and about the future of America. And what do I tell them? “This too shall pass.”
To the next president, I would say this: Get the financial system back on track by setting an example for the American people. Instead of spending more than you have, live within your means, save money for a rainy day and invest in the future. Nearly every presidential candidate says he is going to reduce spending and balance the budget, and some have done better than others once elected, but now, perhaps more than ever, we need the government to get spending under control.
This is a dangerous time for investors, but it’s only partly because of what the bear market is doing to your portfolio. In my experience, these are the times when investors tend to stray far outside the bounds of any normal, prudent system; they do exactly the wrong thing at exactly the wrong time. And that’s what really kills them.
Admittedly, the list of good-looking stocks is extremely small these days; that’s how it is at market bottoms. But the few stocks that do reveal strong investor support are worth following closely--particularly if they have great growth stories--because they’re the stocks most likely to lead the next market advance. One sector we’re keeping on eye on is the airlines.