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In the August Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, we continue to lean into the market rally, be it bear market rally or new bull. We step up to the plate with a partial position in a biotech stock I’ve been eying, jump into a rapid-growth security software name and also a fintech company in a recovering industry. Two more conservative growth ideas are added to our Watch List and may fit the bill down the road should the market soften.
Enjoy!

Today’s Weekly Update will be short and sweet. I am traveling back to the U.S. after a March break vacation with my wife, kids, parents and brother and sister’s families in the Bahamas.

The main market event of the week was yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which concluded with the Fed opting to hold rates steady. During his press conference Fed Chair Jerome Powell used the word “uncertainty” about a thousand times.

With the war in Ukraine taking center stage, it’s very hard to predict what markets will do. But we don’t need to. All we need to do is keep following proven investing systems.
The only change to the portfolio today is the downgrade of Veeco (VECO) to Hold.


As for the new recommendation, it’s probably a household name for folks in the Chicago area, but it’s a new one for me. And it’s a new stock, as well, having just come public in October.


Details inside.

In January’s Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we take a trip down memory lane to January 2020, and try to take some of our own advice that seems even more timely now.

We also dig into five stocks that cover a wide variety of end market exposures. We unpack a small stock that represents a play on infrastructure and clean energy, two rising stars in MedTech, a consumer name that just won’t quit and even a beaten down growth stock that should recover as people get back out there later in 2021.



As always, there should be something for everyone!

Spotting a “top” in in high-flying stocks is impossible but sticking to a system of taking partial profits on a very fast-moving stock is pretty darn easy, if you can manage your emotions.

There is no perfect method of investing in stocks. What really matters is matching the system’s pros and cons with your own personality. I base this on meeting and corresponding with hundreds of other investors.

Another Fed rate hike is on the near horizon. Before it happens, you should buy these three stocks in this red-hot sector.

In most cases, the market acts in a way that surprises the majority, but during the past couple of weeks, stocks have actually behaved as we expected—the major indexes have calmed down to digest their huge post-June 24 run, while volatility among individual stocks has increased as earnings season produces all sorts of big moves up and down. Overall, the bulls remain in control, and while you have to watch your step during earnings season, we’re seeing some new leadership emerge, which is a good sign.

This week’s list includes a few recent earnings winners; powerful gaps up on a firm’s quarterly report usually lead to higher prices. Our favorite of the week is Facebook (FB), which had a coming out party last week after blowing away expectations. It’s extended, but we think you can start small here and look to build a position should the stock advance.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Yandex (YNDX)	0.00	30-31.5	27-28
TripAdvisor (TRIP)	55.14	70-73	62-64
Pharmacyclics (PCYC)	0.00	100-104	92-93
ManpowerGroup (MAN)	90.84	64.5-66	60-61
Illumina Inc. (ILMN)	289.74	79-82	72-73
Finisar (FNSR)	0.00	18-18.5	15.5-16.5
Facebook, Inc. (FB)	0.00	33.5-35.5	30-31
E*Trade Financial (ETFC)	0.00	13.5-14.5	12.5-13
Dana Holding (DAN)	0.00	20.5-21.5	18.5-19.5
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	139-143	127-129

Wells Fargo (WFC) kicked off the Cabot Turnaround Letter earnings season today, showing solid EPS of $1.33/share, which exceeded estimates by 4 cents. WFC also beat revenue estimates by $410M, coming in at $20.69B, but the stock is trading lower this morning as the company posted a 9% YoY decline in net interest. We moved this one to HOLD back in the May 27 issue at 60, and it just hasn’t quite been able to clear that prior high. Given that we have a 119% overall gain on this stock in the rear-view mirror, and that interest rates – and therefore WFC earnings – are only likely to go lower from here, we’re moving this one to SELL.

Xerox (XRX) reported significant year-on-year decreases in both revenue and earnings on Tuesday, showing a net loss of -$113M (versus estimates of +$49.5M) on revenue of $1.5B, down 12.4% from last year’s 1Q. Despite the disappointing results, CEO Steve Bandrowczak remains optimistic about the company’s restructuring strategy, which aims to align Xerox more closely with market demands and improve operational efficiency.

V.F. Corporation (VFC) announced the sale of Supreme, the famed streetwear brand, to EssilorLuxottica, the owner of Ray-Ban, for $1.5 billion, leading to a 13.6% surge in VFC’s shares on Wednesday. Supreme, a New York City skate shop turned global fashion icon since 1994, became renowned for its exclusive collaborations with luxury brands like Louis Vuitton and Nike. VFC acquired Supreme in 2020 for $2.1B, hoping to leverage its trendy image to boost its portfolio. However, the huge debt load and miserable margins took their toll, and by last year the company had written down two-thirds of Supreme’s value.

For the first time in a while we started to see big investors floor the accelerator last week, with some names really letting loose on the upside. Moreover, even the “non-AI” nascent leaders that perked up earlier in May are acting fine, with most digesting gains in normal fashion. All of that is to the good—though the top-down flaws that we’ve written about are all still out there, too, with relatively few stocks hitting new highs, a good number of blowups each week and most areas of the market still struggling. Right now, we’re keeping our Market Monitor at a level 5, but we’re watching things closely—if more leaders emerge, it would certainly add to the bullish side of the ledger.

This week’s list has a bunch of solid growth and earnings-related plays from a variety of industries. Our Top Pick is practically a blue chip name from the software field that’s emerging from a solid launching pad.

Last week’s pullback in the major indexes was pretty disappointing, but when we took a look around at all the evidence this weekend nothing much had changed on an intermediate-term basis: Most leading stocks are acting fine, the trends are still pointed up for the major indexes and, while it’s been a bit more rotational of late, there are still plenty of fresher titles that are advancing. We’ll be watching everything going forward (including the still-steep uptrend in Treasury rates), but at this point, we remain optimistic. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 8.

This week’s list is chock-full of growth-y names, many of them familiar ones. Our Top Pick is a big, liquid, well-sponsored e-commerce emerging blue chip that just catapulted out of a big base.

The market’s recovery this week has been very impressive, especially in the face of what looks like continued election uncertainty in the days ahead. That said, two days of action isn’t the be-all, end-all, but it’s certainly encouraging; we’re adding one new half position tonight in Novocure (NVCR) and aiming to add more. The only issue is that many stocks we’re high on are reporting earnings tonight or early next week; if they can survive their reports, we’ll likely be putting money to work.

In tonight’s issue, we write about all our stocks and some bullish signposts for the market longer-term--whether we’re seeing a kickoff here or whether it takes a while longer, the odds strongly favor the past two months being a normal rest within a major bull market.

January has lived up to its billing so far, with lots of ups and downs among individual stocks and sectors based on a variety of news, rumors and, starting today, some Q4 pre-announcements linked to upcoming conference presentations. Even so, while the action is hectic, the underlying evidence is the same as it has been for the past few weeks: The intermediate-term trend of the major indexes is positive, not powerful, while for individual stocks and sectors, many are acting well, but it depends where you look. If we see a shift in the evidence, we’ll shift our stance, but until then, we’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list is a potpourri of ideas from a variety of different areas that have come into favor this year. Our Top Pick is a solid growth story in the strong aerospace/defense area with big earnings coming. Shares boomed out of a base last week—try to enter on weakness.

In most professional and personal endeavors, there are dozens if not hundreds of decisions to make. Manage a tech company? You need to decide who to hire/promote/fire, what responsibilities to give them, how much to pay them (base and bonus), resolve conflicting agendas, decide what products to promote, approve technical and strategic changes to each product or service, check quality control, help customers, set pricing … the list is essentially endless. Even a simple home landscaping project involves a long list of decisions: how much to spend, do it yourself or hire out, what to plant and where, and so on.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains in good shape, and we remain overall bullish, though we’re not flooring the accelerator given that earnings season is revving up. Today’s bulletin concerns Uber (UBER), which is cracking some support today on another round of autonomous news from others—we’re going to cut bait. On the buy side, we’re starting a half-sized stake in Oracle (ORCL), which quacks like a liquid leader.

EBAY may actually be the best investment leveraged to mobile payments at this time; the stock is strong.

Before leaving my house, I always look in my purse to make sure I have three things: phone, wallet and keys. Thousands of people do the same thing every day. Some day soon, though, my checklist may be one thing shorter, as “wallet” becomes just another function of my phone...