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Sell a Quarter Position in Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Solventum (SOLV), a spinoff of 3M’s healthcare business, was mentioned in last week’s CTL podcast.

Shares of Zeta (ZETA) are up about 5% this morning after the company announced it will acquire LiveIntent, a people-based marketing technology company founded in 2009.

It’s been a pretty ugly stretch lately, with numerous crashes in a number of growthy names. I’m far from confident that the selling is over, however, history has shown that a little buying when things seem bleak can pay off.

Sell Fortrea Holdings (FTRE); Buy Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Primo Brands (PRMB) and FTAI Aviation (FTAI)

Cadre (CDRE) and Soleno (SLNO) Report

Shares of Elastic (ESTC) continue to struggle in the weeks after reporting earnings. We sold part of our position on March 5 for a 30% gain, and we’ll sell the rest today for a roughly 22% gain. SELL REMAINING SHARES

When I do research for this weekly update, I review the consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates for each portfolio stock. The consensus estimate represents the average of all the estimates of the Wall Street analysts who do research on the company. This past week, estimates surged more than I’ve ever seen, involving a majority of our portfolio stocks, and involving much more than the typical one- or two-penny per share increases.

Crista is adding a new stock to the Growth Portfolio, it’s one of the world’s largest producers of nitrogen products, serving customers on six continents.

This will be a busy week for Wall Street as analysts speak with the companies within their stock purviews and write updated research reports. I expect to relay lots of changes in consensus earnings estimates in next week’s update.

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Current Market Outlook


Just over a week ago, it looked like the market’s intermediate-term trend was going up in smoke as cyclicals cracked and growth stocks remained hit or miss. But, frankly, last week’s action was one of the more impressive few days we’ve seen in a while—most indexes roared back, we saw more stocks (growth and otherwise) pop on excellent volume and even some hard-hit areas rebounded nicely. To be clear, we don’t think the market is out of the woods; many cyclical names still look iffy, and it’s not like there are dozens of great-looking breakouts to sink your teeth into (yet). Thus, we still think picking your spots is important, but it’s also true that we’re seeing more good-looking patterns than we have in a while. We’re nudging up our Market Monitor to a level 7.

This week’s list features many of the names that have seen some persistency and power of late. Our Top Pick is Dynatrace (DT), which appears to be emerging from a big-picture, year-long consolidation.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)	166	162.5-167.5	149-152
American Eagle (AEO)	37	35.5-37.5	32-33
CommScope (COMM)	21	20.5-21.5	18.5-19
Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK)	382	370-385	340-345
Dynatrace (DT)	60	57-59	51.5-52.5
Natera (NTRA)	117	113-116	102-104
Nutanix (NTNX)	39	37-38.5	32.5-33.5
Shopify (SHOP)	1495	1450-1500	1310-1340
Upwork (UPWK)	57	53.5-56	47-48.5
Vista Outdoor Inc. (VSTO)	45	42-44	37.5-38.5

We think the odds favor the market has found a short-term low (last Monday) amid lots of panic selling, and it’s probably starting to repair the damage from the prior few weeks … but that process is likely to take some time, as the market deals with the tariff and economic uncertainty and as new potential leaders try to round out launching pads. Of course, how the market acts from here will be key, so we’re remaining flexible, but we always advise going with what’s in front of us, and right now the odds favor more patience will likely be needed before a sustained advance can develop. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 3.

As the correction has gone on, it’s become easier to spot the names that are resisting the decline. Our Top Pick is a newer name to most and it’s shown accelerating accumulation the past three weeks.

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The S&P 500 index had a nice breakout last week. I consider the move to be the beginning of a trend that could easily last for many months. Along the way, there will be pullbacks that will provide good buying opportunities.

As we march toward the end of Q4 and the beginning of 2018, most investors are, rightly, turning their attention to what’s likely to happen in the year ahead. Returns this year have been nothing short of outstanding. While we’ve had bouts of volatility, especially in individual stocks, there’s been astounding breadth of strength across almost all sectors.

Our portfolio stocks achieved another successful quarter of results, generally pleasing Wall Street with upside surprises as opposed to earnings disappointments or news of corporate difficulties. Nevertheless, 2018 has been a difficult year for stock investors, with the S&P 500 index delivering two 10% corrections. The best of companies can easily have their share prices languish for months on end, as we’ve seen all year.

It was a pretty quiet week with most of our stocks up in the 3% -5% range. There are no changes to the portfolio.

Not much changed with the market’s stance last week—the overall uptrend remains in fine shape, though we’re seeing the usual under-the-surface potholes and choppiness (as well as some upside explosions) during earnings season. All told, our advice remains the same: remain bullish and give most of your best performers a chance to run, and when it comes to new buying, it will probably pay to get shares during temporary weakness ... unless you see a super-powerful earnings gap.
We’re seeing plenty of both during the past couple of weeks (normal bouts of weakness, as well as huge earnings gaps), which is encouraging. This week’s list has many names that can help lead the market’s uptrend, and our favorite this week might prove to the be the #1 leader among growth stocks. It’s LinkedIn (LNKD), which soared after earnings last Friday and is looking like the flag-bearer of this bull move.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Team Health Holdings (TMH)	0.00	33.5-35	-
Seattle Genetics (SGEN)	150.85	28.5-30	-
Shutterfly (SFLY)	94.71	39-41.5	-
Phillips 66 (PSX)	0.00	60-63	-
Oshkosh (OSK)	95.04	37-39	-
Melco Crown (MPEL)	0.00	19.5-20.5	-
LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD)	0.00	145-155	-
Cheniere Energy (LNG)	63.82	20-21.5	-
Cree, Inc. (CREE)	67.96	42.5-44.5	-
Popular, Inc. (BPOP)	0.00	26-28	-