It’s anybody’s guess what the second half will have in store for the market. The first half surprised almost everyone with a stellar 16% gain in the S&P.
Investors are sensing a soft-landing, whereby we get past this Fed rate hiking cycle without a recession and minimal economic pain. Recent economic numbers reflect a greater likelihood of that scenario.
Anything is possible. The market could be off to the races, or it could sober up and pull back. Inflation is falling while the Fed is still making hawkish noises. It’s reasonable to assume that even if the economy isn’t slowing down yet, the Fed will continue to raise rates until it does.