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In the March Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we spread things around with a diverse group of mid-caps, plus one large cap from our Watch List that’s one of the biggest stories in MedTech.

As always, there’s something for everybody.

Enjoy!

This month we’re jumping into a small software company that provides solutions for a specific small- and mid-sized business (SMB) market.

While the market for SMB software has been tough for the last two years, this company’s revenue growth has accelerated and customers that bailed in 2022 are coming back. In short, best-of-breed software isn’t dead! And this player is about to become profitable too. Enjoy!

Do a little buying, but continue to keep a good chunk of cash on the sideline. The market’s evidence has definitely improved recently, though our Cabot Tides have yet to turn positive—in essence, the overall trend is neutral, though many growth stocks are setting up well.

It’s been a tough few months for cannabis investors, but no downtrend lasts forever, and yesterday’s blast-off by Aphria (APHA), which sparked buying across the sector, is a sign that the worst has almost certainly passed.

There’s a lot of noise out there. Sticky inflation and the Fed’s response to it; Iran getting involved in the Israel-Palestine war; war in Ukraine now in year three; a pivotal U.S. presidential election drawing ever closer; first-quarter earnings season underway, etc., etc. But the only thing that truly matters to the market, at least lately, is bond yields. Specifically, yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The last couple years, the inverse bond yield-stock market correlation has been undeniable.

The markets have continued to flirt with new highs—pulling back and then moving forward—for the past month.

The Fed’s 50-basis-point rate cut inspired investors, home buyers, and those folks wanting to refinance their homes. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that refinancing applications rose 20% right after the rate cut!

WHAT TO DO NOW: Our Cabot Tides are now on the fence while our Two-Second Indicator is negative as the market is in the middle of another test of the uptrend. Meanwhile, growth stocks have bent but not too many have truly broken, and there are still a good number setups out there. We sold Arista (ANET) on a special bulletin this morning, leaving us with around 45% in cash; we’ll hold onto that tonight as we want to see how this pullback plays out. Details below.

This note includes our review of earnings from Adient (ADNT), Conduent (CNDT), Gannett (GCI), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT), Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD), Kaman Corporation (KAMN), Molson Coors (TAP), Organon & Co. (OGN), Vodafone (VOD), Western Digital (WDC) and Western Union (WU). Next week the deluge tapers with six companies reporting.

There were no ratings or price target changes this week.

Thank goodness; the shutdown is over!

And that agreement (although not really agreeing on much!) has helped the markets to continue their upward momentum, albeit with a few hiccups. All eyes are on the Fed, as I write this, with expectations that it will once again lower rates by a quarter of a point.

We update earnings from six recommended companies, summarize our ideas from the February Cabot Turnaround Letter, and provide comments on news from other recommended stocks. Also, check out this month’s Catalyst Report which lists important and potentially value-creating changes at undervalued companies.

The highest paying dividend stocks are the best place to find regular income and lead a relatively secure life. Fortunately, we know where to find them.

The recent market rally has leveled off and is wavering. The next few days may determine whether the market rally continues, or the indexes retreat once again.

The latest upturn has been stoked by optimism over retreating inflation and a softer, gentler Fed. The Central Bank is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate at a slower 0.50% pace, versus the last four hikes of 0.75%, at the December meeting in two weeks. But Chairman Powell is giving a speech today. Any indication of a higher-than-expected hike will undo the major reason for the recent rally.

Current Market Outlook


The holiday-shortened week was a relatively quiet one, with most indexes and sectors mostly meandered in tight ranges. After the prior two and a half weeks of constructive action, we consider the lack of selling a positive; to this point, the bears haven’t really come around for many names despite some decent rallies and a few breakouts. But now the real test will begin—if the former leaders that have run right into some tough resistance can hold firm, if recent breakouts can build on their gains and fresh breakouts can emerge, this rally could gain steam ... but if the sellers return, things could go back in the soup within a few days. Right now, we’re still in the trust-but-verify mode of the rally, slowly increasing exposure but also keeping a close eye to see if cracks show up.

This week’s list has a wide array of stocks, including a few cyclical names that are pushing up after a few weeks of consolidation. Our Top Pick is Marathon Oil (MRO), which showed some real power last week as oil stocks came to life.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS)	59	54-56.5	48-49.5
Callon Petroleum (CPE)	48	45.5-48	40-41.5
Discover Financial Services (DFS)	124	118-122	108-110
General Motors Company (GM)	63	62-64	56-57
Jabil Inc. (JBL)	58	55.5-57	51-52
Logitech (LOGI)	133	126-130	112-115
Marathon Oil (MRO)	14	13.0-14.0	11.5-12.0
SeaWorld Entertainment Inc. (SEAS)	58	56-58.5	50-51
United Parcel Service (UPS)	213	209-214	193-196
Vale S.A. (VALE)	22	21.5-22.5	19.3-19.8

Despite the continuing Buy signal from the Cabot Emerging Markets Timer, one of our stocks, Telkom Indonesia (TLK), is not pulling its weight and is now rated Sell.

While we have been holding a large amount of cash in the portfolio and have only a short list of stocks rated buy, the market’s assault has reached unacceptable levels.

The market’s volatility is a relatively normal correction. But for now, my plan is to keep making incremental moves to try to limit risk and pursue opportunities. Hopefully that will mean a number of positions move back to buy in November but there is one exception noted in today’s update.

Stocks had their first legitimately good week since July, thanks to declining bond yields, improving earnings and – surprise! – Jerome Powell. Can the market keep the momentum going? I’m betting yes, even if it’s not a straight line. Market bottoms frequently occur in October, and this year will be no exception. Therefore, today I’m adding more growth to the portfolio in the form of a mid-cap name that’s little known to the masses but is essentially the Google search engine for big corporations. It’s a new recommendation from Cabot Early Opportunities Chief Analyst Tyler Laundon.

Enjoy!

Today’s featured stocks include a new addition to the Growth Portfolio. You’ll also find comparisons between our featured stocks and their peers in the integrated oil, asset management and semiconductor industries.

After a modest bounce in May and early June, another thunderstorm has hit the market, driving the indexes and most stocks to fresh lows. Of course, the Federal Reserve is on everyone’s mind these days, but really, you don’t need to guess about what they’ll do and what effect it will have--just following the market’s trends has kept us mostly on the sideline in recent weeks and months, and they’ll be your best guides going forward. In the meantime, we’re actually trimming one of our two positions tonight, but we’re keeping our eyes open for signs the buyers are putting up a fight.



In tonight’s issue, we write about the energy sector, our current holdings and a few new ideas, too. We offer no predictions and remain mostly safe on the sideline, but the environment is certainly ripe for a turn given how everyone’s predicting doom, so it’s important to keep your head up and be ready should the evidence improve.