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Current Market Outlook


While the major indexes took another hit last week, we actually saw a few encouraging signs from the market—the broad market, for instance, continues to display some positive divergences (i.e., it’s in better shape now than back in February, when the indexes were at a similar level) and many leading stocks held key support (often near their 50-day lines), with a few actually shooting to new highs. All of that is a good reason to keep your antennae up—but with the major indexes still in intermediate-term downtrends, we’re keeping our Market Monitor in neutral territory. If this is the start of a sustained rally, there will be plenty of opportunities to jump on, but right now it’s best to mostly stand pat, holding resilient stocks but also keeping some cash on the sideline.

This week’s list is a mixed bag, with lots of turnarounds and some growth stocks sprinkled in. Our Top Pick is Etsy (ETSY), which, despite a big run, has refused to budge during the market’s latest downdraft.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
BofI Holding (BOFI)	42.93	39-41	36.5-38
Delek (DK)	0.00	39.5-41.5	36-37.5
Etsy (ETSY)	112.97	26-27.5	23.5-24.5
Kirby (KEX)	0.00	79-81.5	73.5-75
LGI Homes (LGIH)	86.04	69-73	64-66
NetApp (NTAP)	0.00	61-64	56-58
New Relic (NEWR)	103.70	72-74.5	65.5-67
Planet Fitness (PLNT)	0.00	37-39	34-35.5
Proofpoint (PFPT)	113.79	113-118	104-106.5
Urban Outfitters (URBN)	0.00	36.5-38.5	33.5-35

Current Market Outlook


After the umpteenth test of their February lows and 200-day moving averages, the major indexes have surged over the past couple of days, with many potential leading stocks going along for the ride. Put together, the action is very encouraging and raises the odds that we’ve seen a tradeable bottom. However, despite the uptick, we haven’t yet gotten a green light from our intermediate-term—a good day or two from here could do the trick, but we don’t anticipate signals. Thus, right here, we’re sticking with our current, cautious stance, though we’re keeping our eyes open for definitive signs that a new intermediate-term uptrend has begun.

This week’s list is chock-full of stocks that look like they want to move higher if this rally is the real McCoy. Our Top Pick is Shake Shack (SHAK), which catapulted higher on earnings last week on its heaviest volume ever. Keep positions small and use a loose leash.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Box Inc. (BOX)	0.00	23-25	21-22
Ecopetrol (EC)	22.17	20.5-22	18.5-19.5
Interactive Brokers (IBKR)	0.00	74-77	68-70
Realpage (RP)	0.00	57-59.5	53-54
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)	120.93	85-88	76-78
Shake Shack (SHAK)	92.08	54-58	48-50
Shutterfly (SFLY)	94.71	89-93	82-84
Splunk (SPLK)	207.67	106-110	97-100
Valero Energy (VLO)	97.40	109-113	99-101
Zendesk (ZEN)	82.19	51-54	46-48

Current Market Outlook


We can’t complain about the market’s action recently—the major indexes have (at the very least) held the strong gains of the past couple of weeks, with the strongest among them (like the Nasdaq) pushing higher. And many individual stocks (especially growth stocks) look vibrant, which is a plus. That said, we can’t conclude that the bulls are back in control, as most major indexes are still hovering around their 50-day lines, and in the broad market, the number of stocks hitting new highs (even on the strong Nasdaq) remains very low. We’re close to an all-clear signal, and think it’s fine for you to hold your strong stocks and do a little buying here or there. But right now, we’re keeping our Market Monitor at neutral until we see confirmation of an uptrend.

This week’s list has a ton of good stories and charts, with growth stocks well represented. It’s hard to pick just one, but we’ll go with Red Hat (RHT), which looks like a big-cap leader of the leading software group.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Arch Coal (ARCH)	82.27	95-99	87-89
GoDaddy (GDDY)	0.00	58-61	53-55
MuleSoft (MULE)	0.00	28.5-30.5	26-27.5
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	280-290	255-260
Planet Fitness (PLNT)	0.00	34-36.5	31-32.5
Red Hat (RHT)	0.00	142-148	130-134
TAL Education (TAL)	50.49	35-37	32-33
Twilio (TWLO)	183.39	31.5-33.5	28-29.5
Vale S.A. (VALE)	15.40	13.7-14.5	12.6-13
Zendesk (ZEN)	82.19	40.5-42.5	36.5-38

Current Market Outlook


Stocks had another great week, with the major indexes and most leading stocks levitating higher amidst a vacuum of selling pressure. There’s no question things are a bit bubbly here, with most things trading miles above support and moving averages, and as investor sentiment shifts toward greed. Still, more important to us are the intermediate-term trend (clearly up) and the fact that momentum like we’re seeing generally leads to higher prices down the road. Thus, overall, you should remain bullish, but (a) we still favor being choosy on the buy side, looking for pullbacks and shakeouts in stocks that have shown excellent strength and persistency, and (b) having a plan as we enter earnings season, including looking for new leadership that emerges.

This week’s list has something for everyone, from hot growth stocks to news-driven moves to some turnaround situations. Our Top Pick is Red Rock Resorts (RRR), which is part of the strong gaming group and has began to take a breather after a persistent advance.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)	15.37	18-19	16-16.8
Arch Coal (ARCH)	82.27	92-95	85.5-87.5
Express Scripts Holding Company (ESRX)	79.25	76.5-79.5	70-72
Heron Therapeutics (HRTX)	35.25	19.5-21	17.5-18.5
Matador Resources Company (MTDR)	27.89	30.5-32	28-29
Nucor Corporation (NUE)	66.20	66-69	61.5-63
Red Rock Resorts (RRR)	34.70	32.5-34	30-31
Stifel Financial (SF)	56.32	63-66	58-59.5
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	188-198	167-175
Wingstop (WING)	121.52	42.5-44	39.5-40.5

Current Market Outlook


Growth stocks have stabilized and the market has quieted down following the sharp Nasdaq-led selloff, allowing some stocks to bounce back nicely and other new leaders to flex their muscle. Short-term, we wouldn’t be surprised to see some follow-on selling in some of the damaged areas (we still think chip stocks, for instance, look iffy), and some year-end uncertainties (tax reform, government shutdown) could always cause some wobbles. But you know us—we go with the evidence in front of us, and with the major trends of the major indexes and most leading stocks pointed up, we remain mostly bullish. As always, you want to sell stocks that are breaking down and focus new buying on fresher leadership stocks that have shown excellent volume clues.

There are many such examples in this week’s list, which has a wide variety of good-looking charts and stories to choose from. Our Top Pick is Etsy (ETSY), a niche online retailer that’s just turning profitable and has powerfully broken out during the past week.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Ally Financial (ALLY)	30.44	27.5-29	24.5-26
Boise Cascade (BCC)	0.00	38-40	35-36
Charles Schwab (SCHW)	0.00	49-51.5	46-47.5
D. R. Horton (DHI)	66.55	48-50	44-45.5
Etsy (ETSY)	112.97	18.5-20	16.5-17
First Solar (FSLR)	83.74	64-68	56-59
G-III Apparel (GIII)	45.25	32-34.5	28-30
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)	0.00	41-44	36-38
NetApp (NTAP)	0.00	56-58	51-52.5
Roku, Inc. (ROKU)	150.46	43-47	35-37.5

Current Market Outlook


The strength that began around July 4 continued last week as big investors returned to their desks, pushing most major indexes to marginal new recovery highs. There’s still plenty of news-driven action (volume was light even through last week), and earnings season, which is beginning to get underway in earnest, is sure to have an impact. But the intermediate-term trend (which was iffy in late June) has rejoined the longer-term trend on the upside, and many leading stocks have either snapped back to new highs or are building sound launching pads. We’re always on the lookout for renewed selling pressure, but the evidence has improved, so we’re moving our Market Monitor back to a level 8.

This week’s list is again heavy on growth stocks, though there are a couple of special situations presented as well. Our Top Pick is ZTO Express (ZTO), a young, volatile Chinese stocks with huge growth and a very strong chart. Start small, ideally on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Energen (EGN)	77.04	72-75	65-67
Etsy (ETSY)	112.97	40.5-43	35.5-37
GDS Holdings Limited (GDS)	80.15	41.5-43.5	37-38
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)	121.03	114-117	106-108
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)	234.07	270-290	230-240
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	236.92	212-217	198-201
Roku, Inc. (ROKU)	150.46	45.5-47.5	40.5-42
Sonic Corp. (SONC)	35.22	34-36	31.5-32.5
Workday (WDAY)	194.88	130-134	121-124
ZTO Express (ZTO)	28.84	21-22	18.5-19

The market had an excellent snap back today, which was good to see, but we’re still playing things a bit near-term cautiously for now—many leaders have suffered some distribution after good runs (and after some yellow flags near the turn of the month). Tonight, we’re holding some strong names, but also about one-third in cash, waiting a couple more days to see if today really does put in a low for most leaders.

Big picture, though, we remain quite optimistic—we’re certainly not looking to raise more cash if we can help it (we do have three names reporting next week), and we could put some cash back to work very soon if things hold up. Stay tuned.

While the outlook for 2025 is positive, things are changing.

Sure, this bull market has driven the S&P 500 nearly 70% higher. But most of the gains are from technology stocks. Until this past summer, nearly all the bull market returns were driven by technology. The rest of the market had done very little.

But the rest of the market is waking up. While artificial intelligence (AI) will likely continue to be a powerful growth catalyst, its dominance over everything else might not be as pronounced in 2025 as it has been in the past. Earnings for other stocks are catching up.

The earning growth difference between the “Magnificent 7” companies and the other 493 S&P 500 companies is expected to plummet from 27.8% last year to 8.3% this year. The rest of the market is cheap, has momentum, and will likely get hot this year as stocks experience an earnings growth spike that could last for years.

In this issue, I highlight a healthcare stock that looks highly promising in 2025. It is poised in front of the aging population megatrend, which makes a successful pick so much easier, and it will likely experience a sizable earning spike in the years ahead. It is an existing portfolio stock of which half the shares were sold last year. It’s a great time to buy back the other half.

It’s a potentially very busy week for the market, as we close the book on a productive January. The Fed will come out with its latest interest rate progress report; new jobs numbers will be released; and 40% of the S&P 500 will report earnings. Expect some movement in the market. Entering the week, the market is behaving quite well, sitting at new all-time highs as I write this. It’s a good time to take some risks. And today, we do just that by adding a small-cap biotech that got Wall Street’s attention in September after achieving a breakthrough on a new drug candidate. It’s a brand-new recommendation from Cabot Early Opportunities Chief Analyst Tyler Laundon.

Big picture, it’s hard to find much wrong with the market, as the primary evidence (trends of the indexes, action of leading stocks) remains clearly positive. Thus, we’re generally holding our winners and think there’s a good chance last November marked a major turning point after nearly three years of growth stock sluggishness.

That said, near-term, we’re keeping our feet on the ground and going slow on the buy side, as there’s no question stocks have had a good run and many leaders are extended. Recently, we’ve trimmed a couple of positions but, tonight, we’re averaging up on one name to fill out our stake.

Stocks keep hitting new highs, riding a stronger-than-expected earnings season and multiple red-hot trends (artificial intelligence, semiconductors, weight-loss drugs), all of which we have heavy exposure to in the Stock of the Week portfolio. It’s possible stocks in those sectors are due for a pullback, but tech as a whole is clearly thriving at the moment, so today we split the difference by adding a dividend-paying technology stock that’s been a long-time favorite of Cabot Dividend Investor Chief Analyst Tom Hutchinson.

After some choppy action the prior two or three weeks with defensive stocks leading, growth stocks and many major indexes have improved their standing - including the strongest names continuing to zoom higher. Now, near-term, there are some uncertainties, with earnings season and the election coming up, and there are still areas (including the Nasdaq itself) that are still battling with old resistance. Thus, we wouldn’t be shocked if extended names shook out a bit. But overall, we’re still leaning bullish, though are picking our spots; tonight we’re starting one more half-sized stake in a familiar name we think can do very well should the bulls remain in charge.

Cannabis investors continue to await action by the Trump administration on rescheduling, the next potential major catalyst for the group.

In an August 11 news conference, President Donald Trump said that he’s still considering the change and he will have a decision within a few weeks.

I believe Trump will follow through on his promise to reschedule, but this is not a 100% certainty. The most likely outcome, in my view, is that the Department of Justice will cancel a planned rescheduling hearing and issue a final rule with a public comment period.

After an unusually eventful start to the month, stocks have settled into their normal pre-Labor Day malaise. It won’t last long. Early September typically brings a round of selling as Wall Street returns from vacation and starts culling laggards from their portfolios. But with a Fed rate cut now definitely coming just a couple weeks later, could this be a more constructive September than normal? We’ll see. In the meantime, let’s try and sidestep the coming volatility by adding an undervalued mega-cap tech stock that’s well outside U.S. borders. It’s a former market darling that’s become unloved in recent years. But new Cabot Turnaround Letter Chief Analyst Clif Droke spots a bargain, and so today we add it on the cheap to our Cabot Stock of the Week portfolio as well.

Details inside.

Stocks are rolling again, and the panic that engulfed the market just two weeks ago has vanished, replaced by the longest market winning streak all year. Nearly all our Stock of the Week stocks are up in the past week, several of them by double digits, led by AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) – up more than 80% (!) since we last wrote. So, let’s strike while the iron is hot and add another upstart growth stock to the portfolio in the form of a mid-cap just recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory.

Details inside.

The market remains mostly in the same position it has been, with the big-cap indexes trending nicely higher and, based on historical studies, the outlook for the indexes very bullish looking out 3 to 12 months. That said, the broad market is borderline iffy (our Two-Second Indicator is negative) and the chop factor is still with us for growth stocks, so we’re still not cannon-balling into the pool ... though we do see many setups (as so many stocks have marked time for the past 1 to 3 months) out there. Tonight we’re adding another new half-sized position but are still holding about one-third in cash as the next couple of weeks will be telling.

The population is aging. And it’s aging at warp speed. People 50 years of age and older now comprise a third of the U.S. population. The fastest growing segment of the population is 65 and older as an average of 10,000 baby boomers are turning 65 every single day. And it’s not just this country – aging is a global phenomenon.

We don’t know how sticky inflation will be or what the Fed will do. We don’t know if there will be a recession this year or next year or what the recovery will look like, or who will be the next president. But we do know that the population is shifting and companies on the receiving end of the torrent of dollars that will flow as a result should benefit mightily.

In this issue, I highlight another new stock to buy. This stock is cheap with strong momentum and properties that should help it perform well in any kind of market. It’s a healthcare stock ahead of a huge megatrend, the aging population.

Investing with the tailwind of a megatrend makes it so much easier to make a successful investment. It makes mediocre stocks great and good stocks one of your best investments ever.

Markets have been sideways in the past month, affected by wars, upcoming elections, and analysts see-sawing on the possibility of a Fed rate reduction. The Federal Reserve is meeting this week, and predictions for a rate cut this year are all over the board: none, one, or two.

I expect we’ll have more volatility as we near the fall election cycle.

In the meantime, economic stats look good! Manufacturing continues to climb, jobs are still being added at a rapid pace (272,000 vs. the estimate of 190,000), and the unemployment rate—at 3.9%—remains steady.

Spooky season is upon us! Yes, the usual October selling has commenced, although it’s been fairly mild thus far. But things feel unsettled, what with the expanding war in the Middle East, a toss-up presidential election less than a month away, and with earnings season getting underway this week. So today, to counter any further turbulence, we trim one modest laggard and add a new, low-beta, dividend-paying European stock that’s been a favorite of Cabot Explorer Chief Analyst Carl Delfeld for some time.

Details inside.

After weeks of withstanding a geyser of negative headlines – higher inflation, tariffs, slower interest rate cuts, the DeepSeek impact on AI, etc. – the market finally took on water last Thursday and Friday. Whether that’s the start of a deeper correction, we’ll likely know in the next few days. Even if it is, it’s nothing abnormal. After all, the S&P just touched new all-time highs three trading days ago. A pullback was probably inevitable.

Out of respect for the about-face in U.S. stocks in recent days, however, today we’ll turn our attention to Europe, where stocks have been outperforming their U.S. counterparts by more than 2-to-1 so far this year. Our new addition comes from Spain and is a company that’s been in Carl Delfeld’s Cabot Explorer portfolio for several months.

Details inside.