Current Market Outlook


After a relatively quiet week, the major indexes and most stocks remain in uptrends, and that’s why we’re keeping our Market Monitor in bullish territory. But there remain a growing list of yellow flags, and the fact is that the broad market is very split, with lots of crosscurrents pushing and pulling various stocks and sectors. So far, the gyrations are normal and, possibly, bullish, helping to shake the tree, as we wrote last week. But many stocks are now approaching support—the next few days will be telling, as buyers should arrive on the scene if the intermediate-term uptrend is intact. All told, we remain bullish, but we’re keeping a watchful eye on things.

This week’s list includes everything from big, old-world companies to high-flying new-age firms. Our Top Pick is AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG). The firm has transformed itself thanks to a recent acquisition, and the stock has been acting great for the past few weeks.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)	0.00	140-144	133-135
Packaging Corp (PKG)	0.00	76-77.5	70-72
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	236.92	113-118	104-106
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL)	221.91	77-79	72-73
Infinera (INFN)	0.00	13.5-14.5	12.5-13
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	112-116	104-105
Brunswick Corporation (BC)	0.00	48-50	46-46.5
Applied Materials (AMAT)	0.00	23-24.5	22-22.5
AMAG Pharm. (AMAG)	0.00	39-41	35-36
Alliance Data Systems (ADS)	0.00	273-284	265-268

Current Market Outlook


After a quiet-but-good holiday week (except for the energy stocks, which have crashed), the sellers came out of the woodwork today, pulling down many stocks that have enjoyed good runs. Big picture though, while there remain a few yellow flags and divergences (including the small caps, which are again acting poorly), the major trend remains up for the indexes and the vast majority of stocks. Thus, our advice is to remain bullish, and to remain focused on what’s working—for many stocks, this pullback could go further, but the odds favor weakness leading to higher prices in the weeks ahead.

This week’s list has a slightly larger-cap tint to it, but all of the stocks have enjoyed huge-volume buying sometime during the past month. Our Top Pick is D.R. Horton (DHI), the nation’s largest homebuilder that’s participating in a powerful upmove for that group.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Whirlpool (WHR)	0.00	178-184	162-164
Whole Foods (WFM)	0.00	46-48	43-44.5
SolarWinds (SWI)	0.00	49-51	46-47
NetEase, Inc. (NTES)	0.00	100-103	93-95
KLA Corp. (KLAC)	158.80	66-68	62-63
Incyte Corporation (INCY)	76.98	72-74	65-67
Gentex Corp. (GNTX)	0.00	34-35	31-32
D. R. Horton (DHI)	66.55	24.5-26	22.5-23
Tableau Software (DATA)	126.42	81-85	73-74
Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN)	0.00	21-22	19-20

Current Market Outlook


It looks as if the first “test” of the nascent uptrend has arrived; the major indexes have barely been dented, but under the market’s hood, we’re seeing something of a rolling correction, with a couple of sectors getting hit every day, and with a few stocks breaking down. The next few days will probably be where this rally’s rubber will meet the road—to this point, the selling has been normal (even expected) given the month-long rally from the mid-October lows. Thus, we remain bullish, but we’re also keeping a close eye on the action, both to judge the market’s health and to identify stocks that are setting up new entry points.

This week’s list has a nice array of stocks of varying sizes and from different sectors. We like many of them, but we’re going to go with Sierra Wireless (SWIR) as our Top Pick—it’s a bit speculative, but has a powerful chart and huge numbers, and any shakeout could create a nice buying opportunity.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Taser (TASR)	0.00	19-20	16-17
Sierra Wireless (SWIR)	0.00	34.5-36.5	29.5-30.5
NetSuite, Inc. (N)	0.00	105-108	96-98
Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG)	49.79	39-41	35-37
Health Net (HNT)	0.00	48-50	44-46
Electronic Arts (EA)	0.00	40-42	37-38
Dexcom (DXCM)	421.36	50-53	45-46
CyberArk (CYBR)	111.74	39-43	33-34
Ambarella (AMBA)	52.79	47.5-48	43-44
Apple (AAPL)	248.94	108-114	100-103

Current Market Outlook


After a vacuum of selling pressures helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq soar to new highs, last week’s generally tight, calm action was just what you want to see—despite the run, investors aren’t booking profits and the bears aren’t coming out of the woodwork. That’s not to say there won’t be pullbacks (possibly brief, sharp dips) or that every investor is rowing in the same direction—some groups are lagging and many major indexes are still shy of their September peaks. Thus, you shouldn’t buy with both fists, but there’s clearly enough evidence to be bullish and look to latch onto new leading stocks as they emerge.

This week’s list is chock-full of stocks with big stories and powerful charts. There are many we like, but for our Top Pick we’ll go with Medivation (MDVN), a well-traded (but little-known) biotech firm that has a blockbuster treatment for prostate cancer on its hands.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Wabtec (WAB)	0.00	86-89	81-82
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)	331.95	119-123	110-111
Textron (TXT)	0.00	40.5-41.5	37.5-38.5
Spirit Airlines (SAVE)	57.03	73.5-77	68-69
Receptos (RCPT)	0.00	103-108	88-90
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)	980.83	128-135	122-124
Medivation (MDVN)	0.00	106-111	96-98
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR)	0.00	73-75	68-70
Alibaba (BABA)	254.81	112-116	102-105
Allison Transmission (ALSN)	51.79	31.5-33.5	29.5-30

Current Market Outlook


We wrote a few weeks ago that a straight-up move from October’s vicious selloff would be highly unusual bullish action … and that’s just what we’ve seen! Now, to be clear, not everything is positive—many commodity-related sectors are still struggling, and earnings season has resulted in more than a few duds. Plus, having soared back to their highs, the indexes could easily take a breather in the short-term. That said, the snapback from the October lows has produced tons of stocks surging to (or close to) new highs, and the power of the move tells us to expect better times ahead. Following the evidence, we’ll move our Market Monitor up another couple of notches. There will be pullbacks, but the path of least resistance is up.

This week’s list focuses on a bunch of recent earnings winners, including some big-cap firms that big investors are gravitating toward. Our Top Pick is Visa (V), which is on the move after building a base for most of 2014.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Whirlpool (WHR)	0.00	165-170	148-150
Visa (V)	0.00	234-242	218-220
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)	331.95	114-120	100-105
Infinera (INFN)	0.00	13-14	11-12
Incyte Corporation (INCY)	76.98	65-67	59-60
Salesforce.com (CRM)	0.00	61-63	56-57
Centene (CNC)	0.00	88-91	81-83
Baidu (BIDU)	0.00	225-235	210-215
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)	93.53	62-64	59-60
AmerisourceBergen (ABC)	0.00	84-86	76-78

Current Market Outlook


First, the bad news: the intermediate-term trend of the market remains down, and there remains a wide swath of the broad market that’s in rough shape. But following some panic selling on October 15 and 16, the market’s rebound has been very, very impressive—the major indexes have quickly regained 70%-plus of their recent losses, many stocks found huge-volume support at the lows, and a few (mostly growth) stocks have already leapt to new highs. The market isn’t out of the woods, and even if it was, we’re still smack-dab in the middle of earnings season, so at the very least, volatility is a sure thing. All in all, we’re nudging our Market Monitor up into neutral territory—we still believe in holding some cash and keeping positions small, but we’re also seeing lots of stocks acting well.

This week’s list isn’t all go-go stocks, as it also has some “defensive growth” and some sector-specific winners. Our Top Pick is Celgene (CELG), a big-cap growth stock that, after 10 months of consolidation, is under extreme accumulation.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Union Pacific (UNP)	0.00	111-114	107-108
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)	0.00	166-169	159-160
Lennar (LEN)	61.85	42.5-44	40-40.5
Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG)	49.79	36.5-38	34-35
Illumina Inc. (ILMN)	289.74	182-187	165-171
ICICI Bank (IBN)	0.00	52-54	48-49
Genuine Parts (GPC)	0.00	91-94	89-90
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	98-102	92-94
Alaska Air Group (ALK)	0.00	48-50.5	45-46
Akorn (AKRX)	0.00	41-43	38-39.5

Current Market Outlook


The good news is that the market found some support in the middle of last week and has finally been able to get off its knees during the past couple of days; some potential growth stock leaders, too, have bounced back nicely, including a few in today’s issue. We do think the current bounce will likely go further given the severe selling of the past month and some of the climactic readings seen last week. But it’s going to take more than a couple of up days to change the market’s intermediate-term trend, which remains firmly down. We’re keeping our Market Monitor in bearish territory, and while a little nibbling is fine, the main goal is to remain defensive until a sustained uptrend emerges.

This week’s list is very interesting, as there are a few vibrant growth stocks that have snapped back nicely. Still, our Top Pick is more slow-and-steady —Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) just leapt out of a tight base on huge volume thanks to a bullish earnings report. Dips look buyable.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zoës Kitchen (ZOES)	0.00	32-34	29.5-30.5
XPO Logistics (XPO)	0.00	34-37	31-32
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)	526.09	213-217	204-206
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)	512.96	350-365	335-340
Pacira Biosiences (PCRX)	54.85	97-101	90-92
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	236.92	95-98	88-89
Jack in the Box (JACK)	0.00	65-68	62-63
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)	339.47	82-84.5	78-79
Autohome (ATHM)	98.65	44-47	39-40
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)	0.00	135-138	129-130

Current Market Outlook


We’ve pointed out the numerous yellow and red flags seen in the market during the past few months, and during the past two or three weeks, those chickens have come home to roost—the massive weakness in the broad market is now infecting the major indexes and most formerly resilient stocks. It’s not 2008 out there (the worst of the selling is still in the commodity and economically-sensitive areas) and there are signs of short-term panic (820 combined new lows on Friday). But the trend of the market and the vast majority of stocks is now down, so you should be in a defensive stance until the bulls prove they have the strength to get things going on the upside. We’re knocking our Market Monitor down to reflect this.

This week’s list isn’t defensive, per se, but most of the stocks here have defensive characteristics (businesses that aren’t too economically sensitive) or have enjoyed a recent bullish catalyst. Our Top Pick is American Eagle (AEO), a turnaround that pays a nice dividend.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
United Therapeutics (UTHR)	0.00	120-124	112-113
Mylan (MYL)	0.00	50-51	47-48
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)	980.83	108-112	105-106
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN)	0.00	96.5-98	92-93
GoPro, Inc. (GPRO)	0.00	65-70	62-63
Gilead Sciences (GILD)	75.10	100-103	93-94
Foot Locker (FL)	0.00	54.5-56	52-53
AMAG Pharm. (AMAG)	0.00	27.5-29.5	24-24.5
American Eagle (AEO)	0.00	13.7-14.5	13.2-13.3
Apple (AAPL)	248.94	99-102	96-97

Current Market Outlook


As each week has passed, we’ve seen more and more yellow and red flags, including divergences, an implosion in the broad market, and recently, some key leading groups (like chip stocks) and individual stocks break down. There are still some positives out there, especially that many growth stocks remain within multi-month consolidations; if the market pulls out of its funk, they could be the leaders of the next advance. But, right now, that’s a big if—with selling pressures intensifying, we’re knocking our Market Monitor down another notch. Holding cash and being very choosy when doing some buying is your best course.

This week’s list has a larger-cap flavor to it as investors hunker down in well-traded names. Our Top Pick is Nike (NKE), which recently staged a huge gap on earnings, something that almost always leads to good performance in institutionally-owned stocks.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)	331.95	113-117	105-106
Nike (NKE)	89.77	86-89	82-83
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST)	0.00	88-92	83.5-84.5
Mallinckrodt (MNK)	0.00	89-92	83-84
Home Depot (HD)	0.00	90-93	85-86
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)	0.00	128-132	119-121
FedEx (FDX)	0.00	156-161	150-151
Carter’s (CRI)	0.00	81-83	76-77
Acuity Brands (AYI)	0.00	128-132	120-121
Actavis (ACT)	0.00	238-243	222-224

Current Market Outlook


It’s hard to talk about “the market” right now, partly because there are so many diverging trends out there. The broad market remains in rough shape, with 200 to 300 stocks hitting new lows every day and small- and mid-cap indexes looking poor. But the bigger-cap indexes are holding up, and, surprisingly, we’re seeing lots of growth stocks holding up (and a few shooting ahead) despite the turbulence out there. Overall, then, we remain in a cautious (but not defensive) stance—you should hold stocks that are acting fine, and some buying (preferably on dips) is fine, too. But we’re still advising you to hold a good amount of cash in case the broad market infects the resilient sectors.

This week’s list features many stocks that remain in favor today. Our favorite is Stratasys (SSYS), a leader in 3D printing whose stock has spent most of the year consolidating. The recent pullback looks normal, and you could start a position around here.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Twitter (TWTR)	40.37	50-53	46.5-47.5
Stratasys (SSYS)	0.00	118-123	110-112
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)	512.96	350-360	335-340
Medivation (MDVN)	0.00	97-102	88-90
Mobileye N.V. (MBLY)	0.00	49-51	43-45
Facebook, Inc. (FB)	0.00	76-79	71.5-72.5
Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK)	141.68	96-98	91-92
Community Health Systems (CYH)	0.00	53-55	50-51
Ambarella (AMBA)	52.79	41-43	35-36
American Eagle (AEO)	0.00	14.5-15	12.5-13

If you have the feeling that this year’s boom in the tech sector—and the corresponding record highs in the major averages—isn’t being felt on a market-wide basis, you’re not imagining it.

As it turns out, the record lift in the Nasdaq and S&P is being driven by a troublingly small number of stocks. The result of this narrowing market is that value-focused investors like us have been forced to exercise patience while waiting for the boom to visit our corner of the market (more on that in a minute).

WHAT TO DO NOW: Big picture, the market and most leaders look great, and our market timing indicators are in fine shape. Near-term, though, there’s little doubt things have gotten a bit giddy, with many names and indexes extended to the upside. Tonight, we’re placing Cava (CAVA) on Hold as that stock has been caught up in some group weakness; we’ll hold our 45% cash position for now, but stay tuned, as we’d like to add some new names (or add to existing names) in the near future.

What a difference a month can make! What an April! The S&P rose 9.6% in April, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.

Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.

The results are in for the month of April. It was fabulous. The S&P rose 9.6%, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.

Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.

Now before you call me crazy concerning today’s newsletter headline, hear me out.

Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”

The market is digesting the push and pull of higher oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve, prospects for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and fading momentum from the AI trade that helped push markets to all‑time highs earlier this month.

Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.

Yesterday, four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing 22% of the S&P 500’s market value, reported strong quarterly earnings that highlighted the importance of AI.

You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.

It’s been a glorious April following a miserable March for the market. What happens in May may determine which direction stocks are headed for the rest of the year.

That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.

What war? This market is moving on. We may not be out of the woods yet, but investors are looking beyond the Iran war.

Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30^th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.

The other day I was paid a visit by a roving ISP salesman who was pitching his company’s fledgling internet service over the local monopoly’s. We struck up a conversation and he asked what I did for a living. When I told him, his eyes lit up and he asked, “Got any good stocks you can recommend?”

Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation

Note: I’m out of town this week, so I’ll be a bit briefer on the update today—but I’m still checking my laptop a couple of times a day if you have any questions or comments. I’ll be back at my desk come Monday. Cheers.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.

Despite all the headline noise lately we’re marching deeper into first‑quarter earnings season with the market’s path of least resistance still pointing higher.

Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.

Last summer, problems with the Chinese stock market, economy and currency caused ripple effects all over the globe. As a result, U.S. stock markets fell dramatically in August and September, recovered with a stunning one-month gain in October, then pulled back a bit. We are seeing literally the same situation play out again this week.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.