Issues
While the Cabot Emerging Markets Timer remains technically positive, there’s no doubt that all EM stocks, including many of our own holdings, have been under pressure in recent weeks. We’re taking steps today to lower our exposure by trimming a couple of stocks, but we also have a strong Korean stock to add to the portfolio.
This month’s issue includes a new addition to the High Yield Tier, updates on all our holdings, and some advice on handling big winners.
Today’s recommendation is a steel stock! It’s a sector that nobody is excited about, but the value proposition is great, and the stock has just blasted off following an excellent earnings report.
Current Market OutlookToday saw another rotation day, with strong selling showing up among leading growth stocks while the broad market was relatively flat and some areas (financials, energy) perking up. As usual, we’ll see if today is the start of something more pronounced; the Nasdaq bumped up against its early June highs this morning, so if the selling continues, we could be looking at an intermediate-term top. However, it’s too early to conclude that—most major indexes remain in clear uptrends, as do the vast majority of leading stocks despite a few bouts of selling in recent weeks. Thus, we remain mostly bullish, holding our winners and looking to hop on new leadership that’s emerging.
This week’s list has another batch of strong growth-oriented stocks, and encouragingly, many are new names from sectors that have recently come to life. Our Top Pick is Celgene (CELG), which looks like a big-cap leader of the new uptrend in biotech stocks.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Autohome (ATHM) | 98.65 | ||
| Celgene (CELG) | 0.00 | ||
| Clovis Oncology (CLVS) | 0.00 | ||
| Paycom Software (PAYC) | 0.00 | ||
| Planet Fitness (PLNT) | 0.00 | ||
| Red Hat (RHT) | 0.00 | ||
| Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) | 818.87 | ||
| Trivago (TRVG) | 0.00 | ||
| U.S. Concrete (USCR) | 0.00 | ||
| XPO Logistics (XPO) | 0.00 |
In tonight’s issue, we give you our latest thoughts on each of our stocks and take a deep dive into the issue of handling big winners—a skill that few practice, but done right, it will make a huge difference in your portfolio.
While the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained some 700 points since our last issue, our contributors and advisors, in general, remain bullish, as you can see from our Advisor Sentiment Barometer.
The market’s main trend remains up, though there is certainly some rotation going on, with technology stocks pulling back and financials and medical stocks surging. My advice is to react slowly to these shifts, taking things on a stock by stock basis according to what the stocks are actually doing—and not assuming anything.
Current Market OutlookThe issue following the huge selloff on June 9 was titled, “What Happens From Here is What Counts,” and so far, we’ve been encouraged by what we’ve seen—the Nasdaq found intraday support three times in the 6,100 to 6,150 area last week, and few growth stocks decisively broke key support levels. And today, we saw the Nasdaq and many leading stocks pop nicely. In the short-term, we can’t say the market is completely out of the woods, so picking your spots makes sense. But our main focus is on the intermediate-term, and the trends there remain up for most major indexes and the vast majority of leading stocks. All in all, we remain mostly bullish, though don’t be surprised to see some more “tests” for the market in the near-term.
This week’s list is also encouraging, as our screens aren’t finding it difficult to find great charts and enticing stories. Our Top Pick is LendingTree (TREE), which just broke out in late-April and has held up well during the recent market wobbles.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bluebird Bio (BLUE) | 0.00 | ||
| Cooper Companies (COO) | 0.00 | ||
| HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) | 70.70 | ||
| IAC/InterActiveCorp (IAC) | 0.00 | ||
| Impinj (PI) | 0.00 | ||
| Lending Tree (TREE) | 411.51 | ||
| PayPal (PYPL) | 147.00 | ||
| Summit Materials (SUM) | 0.00 | ||
| Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) | 52.50 | ||
| Zillow (Z) | 76.64 |
Updates
While flashier, more star-studded teams like Lionel Messi’s Argentina, Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway garnered most of the headlines at the just-completed World Cup, Spain was the best team. There was nothing flashy about Spain: no mega-stars, not a ton of goals, no relentless attack. Instead, they dominated the tournament with precision passing, immaculate ball control and near-impenetrable (just one goal allowed all tournament!) defense.
The market rolls sideways amidst a slew of conflicting forces.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The market has gone sideways since May. It seems to be deciding what to do.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.
After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
After a very strong run from the March lows, the market appears to be going through an uncomfortable but healthy rotation. Many of the biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade have come under pressure, while value stocks, equal-weight indexes and other areas that had lagged earlier in the year have held up much better.
Alerts
Today we’re going to add two new stocks to the Model Portfolio: Abiomed (ABMD) and Dave & Buster’s (PLAY)
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.