In today’s issue, I initiate coverage of a new stock in an industry where demand far exceeds supply: the recreation vehicle sector. The company is adding two new manufacturing facilities to meet record new orders which have nearly doubled from a year ago.

In today’s issue, we’re giving some tips about how to handle your portfolio when markets are kicking up a fuss. We also have a new stock pick that takes us outside China and the tech sector, plus the portfolio moves we’re taking to lower our exposure a little.

Investors are ignoring the unreal circus atmosphere in Washington, D.C. and continuing to focus on economic growth, which is fueling their thirst for good investments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen some 353 points since last month’s issue on good economic and earnings news. Mortgage applications are up 7.1%, unemployment claims continue to decline and job openings are rising.

In selecting today’s stock, I looked for a quality stock with a strong and healthy technical pattern that was presenting a decent buy point. Oddly, it’s a bricks-and-mortar retailer, a category with an abundance of losers these days. But it’s a winner, and I think you’ll like it.

Current Market Outlook


After a hot and heavy few weeks, the growth stock sellers came out of the woodwork during the past two days, driving many down sharply to support. What happens from here will tell the tale in our view—if most growth stocks hold up in this vicinity or push nicely higher, then the odds will favor this being another shakeout. But should we see a weak bounce (or, worse, no bounce), then it’s likely growth stocks will be entering a longer consolidation following their heady runs. We’ll see how it goes, but right now, you should honor your stops and maybe even take a couple of partial profits if you haven’t recently. As for buying, we’re OK with it, but look for stocks near support and keep new positions small.

This week’s list has far more non-growth ideas, which have found some buying in recent days. Our Top Pick is Penn National Gaming (PENN), which is part of a strong group and looks relatively early in its overall advance.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Abiomed (ABMD)	0.00	136-139	128-131
Berry Global (BERY)	64.22	56.5-58	52-53
CBOE Holdings (CBOE)	0.00	87-90	81-83
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)	121.03	77-80	70-72
Hancock Holding (HBHC)	0.00	49-51	45-46
ILG Inc. (ILG)	0.00	24.5-26	22-23
Penn National Gaming (PENN)	45.38	20.3-21.3	18.7-19.4
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)	526.09	340-350	320-325
Terex (TEX)	0.00	35.5-37	32.5-33.5
Workday (WDAY)	194.88	94-98	87-90

This month’s Cabot Value Model contains a diversified list of buy recommendations, with a bias toward high quality companies in the technology and financial sectors. These and similar companies have propelled the Cabot Value Model to gain more than the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.

We’re restoring Buy ratings on a couple of stocks, and averaging up in one of them as it has begun to emerge from a multi-month rest period. That said, we’re still holding about 14% in cash given the iffy broad market and the many divergences in the market.

Today’s recommendation is a very strong Chinese stock that had quieted down nicely during the past two weeks and is now on a four-day run. One thing we really like in a growth stock is a huge mass market, and this company is right in the middle of one of the biggest markets there is.

The market seems to be lending itself to more bullish price action in June, and I’m looking forward to making money this month! Today’s issue brings you one new stock, and one rating changes.

Current Market Outlook


There are a still a couple of flies in the market’s ointment, but the past week or two has seen the market broaden out—the Nasdaq and growth stocks are still leading the way, but the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite have joined them in new high ground, and even the lagging small- and mid-cap indexes have perked up. Market-wise, then, the evidence has improved, so we’re nudging up our Market Monitor to a level 9. Just as important, though, is handling your stocks correctly—right now, many are extended to the upside, though some are just emerging while others look like great buys on any dips. Long story short, you should remain bullish, but honor your stops and continue to pick your spots on the buy side.

This week’s list has another batch of strong growth stocks. Our Top Pick is JD.com (JD), which catapulted to all-time highs a month ago on earnings and has calmly consolidated since.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Autodesk (ADSK)	229.00	107-112	99-102
Bob Evans Farms (BOBE)	0.00	67-70	62-63.5
Broadcom Limited (AVGO)	266.26	245-255	227-232
Graco Inc (GGG)	0.00	109-113	101-103
JD.com (JD)	39.58	38-40	35-36.5
Lumentum (LITE)	87.00	56-58	51-52.5
Marriott Vacations (VAC)	0.00	116-120	105-108
Marvell Technology Group (MRVL)	36.88	16.8-17.5	15.8-16.2
ServiceNow (NOW)	341.86	102-105.5	95.5-97.5
Weibo (WB)	98.16	73-76	66-68

While flashier, more star-studded teams like Lionel Messi’s Argentina, Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway garnered most of the headlines at the just-completed World Cup, Spain was the best team. There was nothing flashy about Spain: no mega-stars, not a ton of goals, no relentless attack. Instead, they dominated the tournament with precision passing, immaculate ball control and near-impenetrable (just one goal allowed all tournament!) defense.

High-flying AI-related stocks are facing a high bar of performance. Even what normally would be considered staggering growth is met with a yawn. The backdrop of the Middle East conflict and almost $100 oil is not helpful.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 57% this year, even after a sharp correction. This is basically a macro trade, and there are few industries as cyclical, or as capital-intensive, as semiconductor manufacturing.

The market rolls sideways amidst a slew of conflicting forces.

The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.

The market has gone sideways since May. It seems to be deciding what to do.

It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.

With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.

And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.

Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.

For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.

After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.

Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.

Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.

The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.

The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.

The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.

It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.

Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.

The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.

That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.

We’re going to sell our position in Seaspan (SSW), a stock that we’ve had in the portfolio for four full years, enjoying its impressive dividends through many market moves.

The UK has voted to leave the European Union, and while the details of the separation will take years to figure out, markets are responding in typical knee-jerk fashion this morning.

The market’s reaction to the Brexit vote has dropped the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) by nearly 6%. Today, our only action will be to sell half of our position in Credicorp (BAP), our Peruvian bank stock.

If you own TSLA with a large profit, as many of my early subscribers do, I recommend that you continue to hold your shares.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.