Almost two years ago, weight-loss drugs were all the rage.
Ozempic ads were popping up everywhere, and Mounjaro was almost as ever-present. And we all suddenly knew someone who was taking a weight-loss drug – maybe you started taking one yourself! Having punctured the mainstream and become part of the national zeitgeist, weight-loss drugs were also all the rage on Wall Street. And that was reflected in the share prices of the purveyors of the aforementioned brands (plus Wegovy and Zepbound): Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO).
Both those weight-loss drug stocks reached fresh all-time highs in Summer 2024. NVO shares had nearly tripled over the previous two years, topping out at more than 140 in June 2024. LLY reached an apex of 960 a share in August 2024, having more than tripled from 300 a share in August 2022. Both stocks were must-owns – LLY and NVO were both in my Cabot Stock of the Week portfolio.
And then? Well….
Okay, so the LLY stock chart (which spans the 24 months that include the summer peak and new highs at the end of 2025) doesn’t look terrible, mostly because of that surge at the end of last year, which, after the recent sell-off, has left it trading near the 2024 highs. The NVO chart, on the other hand, is pretty grim – it’s fallen 75% from those 2024 highs. And yet … weight-loss drugs are as popular as they’ve ever been. Those Ozempic and Mounjaro ads haven’t gone away, and Wegovy and Zepbound have joined them in the mainstream. More people are taking the drugs than ever before, as prices have become more affordable. But the GLP-1 buzz, at least in investing circles, is gone. And the two aforementioned weight-loss drug stocks have exited the “romance” phase of their life cycles, and instead entered the “reality” phase.
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And in reality, both stocks look like relative bargains right now. But which is the better bargain? Let’s break it down.
Tale of the Tape: Eli Lilly (LLY) vs. Novo Nordisk (NVO)
Trailing P/Es: LLY 38, NOV 10
Forward P/Es: LLY 26, NVO 11
Estimated 2026 sales growth: LLY 26%, NVO -8%
Estimated 2025 EPS growth: LLY 43%, NVO -6%
Cash per share: LLY $8.14, NVO $6.07
Institutional ownership: LLY 84.6%, NVO 9.5%
In terms of value, NVO has LLY beat by a mile, trading at less than a third of LLY on a trailing price-to-earnings basis and just under half of it on a forward price-to-earnings basis. But it’s not growing nearly as fast as Eli Lilly, on either the top or bottom line.
And while the Grand Canyon-esque chasm in institutional ownership suggests NVO has far more potential upside if Wall Street latches on … so far, that’s not happening, as the institutional ownership percentage is a fifth of what it was at its June 2024 peak. That’s a mass exodus, and one that’s shown no sign of recovering, as that figure hasn’t moved in the last six months.
Ozempic and Wegovy sales are expected to fall by 5% to 13% this year due to competition and the loss of patent protections, with generic versions coming soon in China, India and Canada.
Mounjaro and Zepbound, on the other hand, are still growing revenues at breakneck speeds, with Mounjaro sales up 110% in the fourth quarter, while Zepbound’s sales also more than doubled, up 122% year over year. A new drug called donanemab, designed to treat patients with Alzheimer’s and which gained FDA approval in July 2024, has blockbuster potential for Eli Lilly. It also has Trulicity (for diabetes), Taltz (for autoimmune diseases) and Verzenio (a cancer treatment), among others, in its deep drug portfolio. Eli Lilly is, thus, less dependent on its obesity drugs than Novo Nordisk.
And the Winner Is….
Bottom line: Eli Lilly is a more diversified and much faster-growing company than Novo Nordisk. It has earned its higher valuation, and its shares have greater momentum than NVO right now. So while NVO may technically be the better value opportunity, LLY looks like it’s clearly the better stock right now. If you’re looking to regain exposure to the still-fast-growing weight-loss drug sector now that share prices among its two dominant players have come crashing back to much more reasonable levels, LLY is the best way to do it.
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*This post has been updated from a previously published version.
