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Stock Market

Investing in the stock market has always been an effective way to build wealth. In fact, it’s consistently proven to be the most effective wealth generator over the long term.

And, with persistent inflation an ongoing issue and the Federal Reserve poised to cut rates sooner rather than later, investing in stocks may be one of the few places investors will be able to generate consistent, inflation-beating returns for their savings.

Of course, stock market investing comes with more risk than a safe, low-yield savings account. Inevitably, not all of your investments will be winners.

In investing, no one really knows for sure what’s going to happen. Over time, however, stocks tend to rise. History tells us this. Since 1928, the average annual return in the S&P 500, the benchmark U.S. stock index, is 10%. So historically, a well-diversified portfolio of stocks should allow you to just about double your investment once every seven years.

Now, there are periods where returns in the stock market underperform the average. Every few years we encounter corrections and bear markets, as we did in 2022 and 2018, and the years after the Great Recession and dotcom bust.

But over a longer time horizon, those off years are more than offset by the performance in bull markets. If you invested in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2014 and simply held that investment, you would have weathered the 2018 correction, the pandemic sell-off, and the 2022 bear market. And you’d have generated 16.5% annual returns.

You wouldn’t think that, with a correction, a pandemic and a bear market, the last decade would be anything to write home about, but those numbers speak for themselves. Despite the fear and negative headlines, investing over the last 10 years has beaten the historical average by more than 50% each year.

But, of course, your return would have depended on what stocks you actually bought. Take General Electric (GE), for example. GE is an iconic American company. As recently as 2009 it was the largest company in the world.

But had you bought GE at the beginning of 2014, you would have lost 0.7% every year, and that’s assuming you reinvested your dividends. Without dividend reinvestment, your returns would have been even worse.

That kind of unpredictability scares some people away from investing in the stock market. The track record over time should be enough to convince you otherwise.

The stock market is a vast and ever-evolving place, and there are many ways to approach stock market investing.

Want to invest in safe companies that offer a steady stream of income? You’re probably a dividend investor.

Are you willing to take on a bit more risk to go after bigger, faster rewards? Growth investing is likely for you.

Value investing is for investors who like to bargain shop.

Options trading is for those who like to invest based on statistical probabilities. And so on.

At Cabot Wealth Network, we have something for every investor. Our investment advisories cater to a variety of risk tolerances and timetables, depending on your preference. Since 1970, we’ve been helping investors of all experience levels achieve market-beating returns, helping our readers double their money more than 30 times over.

When done right, investing in the stock market can be a hugely profitable endeavor. For more than a half-century, we’ve been helping investors maximize those profits—and hope to continue doing so for another 50 years.

Stock Market Post Archives
If I try to think rationally about this problem, here’s what I get. Debt is bad; equity is good. Consumers and businesses are already working to reduce their debt loads, and as they continue, they will develop stronger balance sheets and greater financial health, which is a good thing. (One aspect of this that is often forgotten is that this debt shrinkage is right on schedule for aging baby-boomers.)
The moral of the story: Successful investors always consider risk when analyzing their portfolio, adhering to rules like cutting losses short (if you’re into growth stocks) or diversification (value stocks). I constantly talk to investors who fail to think of the downside, plowing a huge percentage of their portfolios into a few stocks ... and then failing to cut the loss short if things go amiss.
Microsoft wants to pay $44 billion - perhaps the largest technology purchase ever - to buy Yahoo! Why? To compete with Google! But does it make sense? Well, from a big-picture point of view, anything that can thwart Google’s dominance of Internet search and advertising probably makes sense for Microsoft, and if they’ve got the cash, there are worse places to spend it. But does this make for an attractive investment opportunity? Do you want to own a piece of Microsoft/Yahoo!, recognizing that the Microsoft part is eight times the size of the Yahoo! part?
I know that these trading fiascos are bad things ... and yet part of me is strangely pleased about them. I like having big object lessons that show what happens when people break the rules and refuse to cut their losses short. Rogue traders aren’t greedy criminals - none of the big ones have made any money for themselves on their dealings. But their mistakes remind us that anyone who reacts to losses by making increasingly riskier trades can parlay bad luck into a financial catastrophe of amazing proportions.
The industry is the realm of genetic medicine and the stock is Illumina (ILMN), currently trading in the low-60s. Illumina is one of two major public companies that make tools used for genetic medicine. The other is Affymetrix (AFFX). To say that they’ve been competitive would be polite; there have been lawsuits and countersuits about intellectual property in recent years.
The market appears ripe for a short-term bounce ... but so what? The reason most people want to pick bottoms isn’t really to make money; that’s part of it, of course, but not the sole purpose. The reason they want to pick bottoms is to feel like they outsmarted the market and most other investors. There’s nothing shameful about that, but in the market, wanting to prove that you’re right usually costs you money.
When we’re in a strong bull market, it’s like driving down the highway on a clear summer day. Visibility is unlimited and your tires grip as well as they ever will. You can go pedal to the metal and rack up the miles - and the profits - quickly. But a bear market, such as we’re in today, is more like the weather I drove in Friday. It’s far less tolerant of aggressive behavior. The effects of your mistakes are magnified. And if you make enough wrong decisions, it can ruin you.
The Cabot Market Letter has been timing the market for over 37 years, and it is darned good at it. Even the Hulbert Financial Digest has noticed, giving the Letter an attaboy for its success in getting out of bear markets and back into bull runs. There are reasons for the divergence in the opinions of Cabot and the market commentators, and they don’t require that one or the other has to be wrong. It’s a good illustration of the power of the individual to grab victory from the jaws of defeat. Here’s how it works.
Eventually, when real estate prices fall low enough, the patient value-oriented souls who’ve been waiting for bargains will come out of the woodwork and start buying. They’ll buy individual houses, apartment buildings, entire condominium projects and more. Downtrends will end. The recession will end. And the U.S. of A. will return to its pattern of slow growth. But should you wait until then before you invest? No, as I explain in the next section.
Here’s what I wrote about Barrick in last week’s edition of Cabot Top Ten: The price of gold is in a solid uptrend, and that’s helping all gold stocks, including Barrick Gold. The company, based in Canada, is one of the largest gold producers in the world...most gold stocks simply trade up and down with the price of gold, and for good reason—cash costs for mining activities are holding relatively steady, so as spot and futures prices increase, the extra money will fall to the firm’s bottom line.
My pick, by the way, is New Oriental Education (EDU), which is thriving by teaching English to Chinese students of all ages, and also teaching test preparation courses. I like it because I think the growth of China will continue at a rapid rate and because I value education highly. Also, the company is fast-growing and very profitable; in the third quarter, revenues grew 50% from the year before while the after-tax profit margin was 43.9% (there’s a strong seasonal component here). And finally, the chart looks good.
Rather than give the same old big advice (buy quality stocks on reasonable pullbacks, let your winners run, cut your losers short, and don’t try to go against the trend of the market) I’m going to recommend three small changes that you might actually be able to implement. And a successful small change is much better for you (both financially and emotionally) than a big change that you can’t make happen.
My stock idea for this issue stems from the “you can find good news among a heap of bad news” theory. It’s a company whose entire business stems from the airline industry ... probably the only industry that’s lost more money than the auto firms during the past few years. And today, the outlook would seem to be even worse, as businesses begin to cut back spending and oil prices flirt with $100 per barrel.
So which book leads to the investment idea, the book by the dreamers or the book about the doer? There’s no surprise here; it’s Carnegie, the doer. Because today’s idea is about steel and iron ore, once again in great demand by the world. For Carnegie, demand came from the expansion of the American railroad system. For this company, demand comes from the global building boom, particularly in Asia.
Now, this would be a natural place to write about a solar power stock, but I’ve done enough of that in recent issues. Instead, I want to write about a nifty little Brazilian company. And here’s why. In my mind, the world’s stock markets are linked by conduits that channel money this way and that, every minute of every day, always reacting to the latest news and the resulting changes in perception.