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Stock Market

Investing in the stock market has always been an effective way to build wealth. In fact, it’s consistently proven to be the most effective wealth generator over the long term.

And, with persistent inflation an ongoing issue and the Federal Reserve poised to cut rates sooner rather than later, investing in stocks may be one of the few places investors will be able to generate consistent, inflation-beating returns for their savings.

Of course, stock market investing comes with more risk than a safe, low-yield savings account. Inevitably, not all of your investments will be winners.

In investing, no one really knows for sure what’s going to happen. Over time, however, stocks tend to rise. History tells us this. Since 1928, the average annual return in the S&P 500, the benchmark U.S. stock index, is 10%. So historically, a well-diversified portfolio of stocks should allow you to just about double your investment once every seven years.

Now, there are periods where returns in the stock market underperform the average. Every few years we encounter corrections and bear markets, as we did in 2022 and 2018, and the years after the Great Recession and dotcom bust.

But over a longer time horizon, those off years are more than offset by the performance in bull markets. If you invested in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2014 and simply held that investment, you would have weathered the 2018 correction, the pandemic sell-off, and the 2022 bear market. And you’d have generated 16.5% annual returns.

You wouldn’t think that, with a correction, a pandemic and a bear market, the last decade would be anything to write home about, but those numbers speak for themselves. Despite the fear and negative headlines, investing over the last 10 years has beaten the historical average by more than 50% each year.

But, of course, your return would have depended on what stocks you actually bought. Take General Electric (GE), for example. GE is an iconic American company. As recently as 2009 it was the largest company in the world.

But had you bought GE at the beginning of 2014, you would have lost 0.7% every year, and that’s assuming you reinvested your dividends. Without dividend reinvestment, your returns would have been even worse.

That kind of unpredictability scares some people away from investing in the stock market. The track record over time should be enough to convince you otherwise.

The stock market is a vast and ever-evolving place, and there are many ways to approach stock market investing.

Want to invest in safe companies that offer a steady stream of income? You’re probably a dividend investor.

Are you willing to take on a bit more risk to go after bigger, faster rewards? Growth investing is likely for you.

Value investing is for investors who like to bargain shop.

Options trading is for those who like to invest based on statistical probabilities. And so on.

At Cabot Wealth Network, we have something for every investor. Our investment advisories cater to a variety of risk tolerances and timetables, depending on your preference. Since 1970, we’ve been helping investors of all experience levels achieve market-beating returns, helping our readers double their money more than 30 times over.

When done right, investing in the stock market can be a hugely profitable endeavor. For more than a half-century, we’ve been helping investors maximize those profits—and hope to continue doing so for another 50 years.

Stock Market Post Archives
Why doesn’t economic news affect my market outlook? The reason for that can be explained in my favorite quote, which is carved on the mantel above the fireplace at Cabot: “Markets are never wrong; opinions are.” The infamous trader Jesse Livermore is responsible for this gem. Far too many investors fail to leave their egos and opinions at the door and this is the #1 reason most investors lose money, or at best produce lackluster returns.
I just finished a book, “The Fourth Tuning,” which was recommended to me by long-time subscriber. The book’s editors have written several books that all deal with the authors’ conception that progress in America is not linear but comes in predictable cycles, all because succeeding generations grow up influenced by--and reacting to--the behaviors and values of their parents’ and grandparents’ generations.
Has every ship run aground? Have all the oceans frozen over? You might think so if you’ve followed the dramatic tumble of the Baltic Dry Index. The index tracks the price to ship dry goods--everything from corn to cement--and unless the world suddenly stops eating and building, the odds are this index is ripe for a stunning rebound ... that looks already underway. Today, we’re featuring an article from our friends at StreetAuthority. StreetAuthority Editor Amy Calistri explains why these shipping stocks have a bright future ahead of them while providing some monstrous yields--one shipper in particular paying a 23.2% yield.
Two great building blocks for a sound growth portfolio: Loss limits and equal dollar positions. First, you must set loss limits based on the price at which you bought each position. When markets are challenging--as they are now--your sell discipline should kick in at a minimum of 15% below your buy price. The second risk rule is to use equal dollar positions to build your portfolio. The number of shares you own is totally irrelevant. If you are working on an aggressive portfolio, you should divide the amount of money you have allocated to that portfolio into 10 equal-dollar positions and buy just that amount of each stock.
Today I want to start off with a word about a certain technical indicator you’ve probably heard a lot about this week. It’s a prediction that gets made every year by Punxsutawney Phil, who sticks his head out of the ground to predict whether or not winter is here to stay. As a child, I believed in the power of the groundhog to forecast the weather. But soon I realized that it would probably be winter here for at least six more weeks. In any event, I’m not putting much stock in old Phil to forecast the seasons or anything else. We don’t do predictions here at Cabot, we watch the market and use our disciplined market timing indicators to stay on the right side of the trends.
The cynic might say that if the IRS just took a close look at the last 10 years’ tax returns of everybody in the Federal government it would scare up enough revenue to close the budget deficit by a few percentage points. Me, I’ll just repeat and elaborate on my main point. The tax laws are too complicated. Every new program, gained by earnest lobbying, that aims to fine-tune the system to benefit or penalize specific groups, only serves to make the whole process more complicated, and thus less efficient, for both the taxpayers and the overseers. And that helps nobody but the people employed in the tax industry.
I rarely ever delve into the murky, stinky waters of politics, and really, I’m not going to start now. If you’ve listened to the news, you probably know about the good and bad of the $800 billion (and growing) stimulus package that will soon be taken up in the Senate. I’m actually optimistic that the Senate will be able to pass a workable, bi-partisan bill. However, my rant today is based on policies that have been adopted by Democrats, Republicans and Independents alike. I’m talking about the various tax credits currently in the tax code, and the income thresholds that apply to them. Some aspects of the current stimulus bill include these thresholds.
Today I’m bringing you a Q&A with Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter Editor J. Royden Ward. You haven’t heard from him in a while, so I wanted to bring you up to speed on his latest thinking about what happened in 2008 and where he sees the stock market and value stocks headed in 2009 and beyond.
One of the hardest concepts for individual investors to grasp is the idea that the stock does not represent the company. In fact, the stock represents investors’ PERCEPTIONS of the company. If investors think a company’s future is bright, even though it is not yet a big success, they’ll pay a premium for their expectations--pushing the stock up in the process. Contrarily, if investors perceive that a company is becoming less successful, or simply growing less rapidly, its premium will shrink. In the worst cases, the stock will decline, even though the company is still growing!
Carlton Lutts, the founder of our company, used to say that all you need to get from a book to make it worth the reading is one good idea. Cabot is headquartered in a decommissioned branch library, and the wall next to where I sit is lined with books on investing, some of them dating back to the 1920s. If you’re serious about becoming a better investor, you should be doing your homework, hoping that every book you read delivers that one good idea.
Plummeting prices last year brought many stocks down 50% or more, so that their yields now look extraordinarily high. My database now shows 63 stocks with annual yields of 20% or more. But there’s something wrong with these stocks--business at every one of these high-yielding firms is faltering. The stocks’ plunges tell us that. And while the yields may look high today, they’re based on the past 12 months. If business shrinks, the dividend will shrink more. And if the business shrinks, the stock price may fall further, too. All in all, chasing these super-high yields is a dangerous game, suited only for professionals who can determine when the selling has been overdone and when the dividend is secure.
Last year, I started writing a series explaining our investment advisories in an effort to help answer one of the most common questions we get from investors, “Which Cabot publication is right for me?” Also last year, we expanded the Cabot family by purchasing Dick Davis Digest and Income Digest. This is what Timothy Lutts wrote at the time: “Now, it’s our honor to be the steward of these well-respected publications. Our goal is to honor the past reputation of these Digests, while improving the newsletters so they serve subscribers better in this Internet age. I’ll be telling you much more about these Digests in the future.”
One of the most encouraging signs I see in the market is the action of many potential leading stocks. There are more than a handful that are hanging in there despite the market’s woes. And there are a few that have actually broken out on the upside! A group that has broken free is one that I pointed out to you in my last Cabot Wealth Advisory (dated January 5)--education stocks.
Entrepreneurs, according to academics, are motivated by an overwhelming need for achievement and a strong urge to build. As Thomas Edison commented, while he and his team were working to develop an incandescent light bulb that lasted more than a few minutes, “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” Without entrepreneurs the world, would be far, far poorer today. Most entrepreneurs are less famous than the men in this issue. But they are no less valuable. One is my father, who launched Cabot Market Letter from his kitchen table back in 1970 and persevered until he could afford to leave his regular job a few years later.
Every so often, I compile the responses to the survey at the bottom of each issue of Cabot Wealth Advisory and from our welcome survey, which is sent to new subscribers. This week, it was time to read the results and there were some very interesting responses. Most responses were complimentary and some contained specific questions or requests for information, which is what I’m going to address today.