The bull market is in full force, pushing the major indexes to new all-time highs as of this writing. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, in fact, broke through major psychological thresholds last month: 7,000 and 25,000, respectively. Can they break through another one in the same year?
Considering the benchmark U.S. index dipped below 4,000 in early 2023 – it didn’t climb above 4,000 for good until that March – and that the tech-heavy Nasdaq was barely over 10,000 in late 2022, it shows how powerful this three-and-a-half-year, artificial intelligence-driven bull market has been, at least for the major indexes. Could Dow 60,000 not be far behind? And can the market’s momentum carry the S&P to 8,000 and the Nasdaq to 30,000 by year’s end?
Let’s do the math on how long it might take for all three major indexes to reach those round numbers.
Dow 60,000
Remember when Dow 20,000 was such a huge milestone? That was nine years ago. Now it’s flirting with 50,000 (it famously topped 50,000 briefly earlier this year, as our now ex-attorney general very publicly noted) — despite the fact that the Dow has been the slowest-rising of the three major stock market indexes, though it also fell a lot less than the other two during the 2022 bear market.
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All told, the most staid of the three major indexes is up a mere 37% since the beginning of 2022 … with ALL of the gains coming since the start of 2024. With the Dow currently at 49,693, it would take about a 20% bump for it to reach 60,000. That’s a big leap! But considering the index is up 18% in the last year, it’s not entirely unrealistic. Still, given the slower-moving nature of the index, I’d say 60,000 seems more likely to come in 2027; a more reasonable goal for 2026 is for the Dow to reclaim 50,000 … and this time, stay there.
Nasdaq 30,000
This milestone is less far and probably much more achievable than Dow 60,000 since the Nasdaq is a much faster-moving index. The tech-heavy index has added more than 7,000 points in just the last year, a 39% gain, thanks mostly to the Mag Seven and AI stocks.
In April, it topped the 25,000 mark for the first time and has just kept motoring past 26,000, leaving it “only” 13.6% shy of 30,000 … exactly the percentage it’s risen year to date thus far. Here’s where I throw a bit of cold water on the Nasdaq repeating what it’s done through the first four and a half months of the year over the remaining seven and a half months: The AI rally has occurred in fits and starts over the last few years. After topping out just below 24,000 in late October, the Nasdaq proceeded to enter a slow-moving, 13% retreat that lasted five whole months, bottoming at the end of March. Its straight-up rebound in the six weeks since has thus far mirrored what we saw from the index last April and May. But these types of V-shaped rallies tend to have a shelf life.
Therefore, I think Nasdaq 30,000 in 2026 seems like a bit of a stretch, given all the potential geopolitical and economic landmines right now. A more realistic goal is probably in the first quarter of 2027 – before the Dow reaches 60,000.
S&P 8,000
This could go either way. It’s much closer than the other two indexes; as of this writing, the S&P is just 7.5% away from 8,000. With the benchmark U.S. index already up 8.7% through the first four and a half months of the year, that seems like a reasonable year-end goal.
However, having run up 17% in just the last six weeks after the Iran war-fueled bottom in late March, I’d expect some choppiness in the coming months, if not another pullback. This one will likely come right down to the wire. Barring anything unforeseen derailing the bull market, I could see the S&P nearing 8,000 in the year’s final quarter. Given the historically bullish nature of the final two months, I say it gets to 8,000 sometime in November or December.
Of course, here’s the part where I remind you that past returns are not indicative of future performance. Even as the current stock market picture looks mostly bright, there’s always the chance that an unexpected event (like, say, the global pandemic in 2020 or the Iran war this winter) can knock it back.
But chances are, stock prices will be higher seven months from now than they are today. Perhaps significantly higher.
Ultimately, big shiny numbers don’t really matter anyway when it comes to indexes. They’re convenient measuring sticks and fun talking points. And with the bull market in full swing, it’s a good time to dream big.
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*This post is periodically updated to reflect market conditions.
