The bull market remains in effect, although it’s been slower going of late, with the S&P 500 down 1.3% from its mid-August highs, the Dow 2.8% below its own early-August highs, and the Nasdaq 2.3% below the all-time highs it reached in June.
But don’t let that sideways trade fool you. Not only are the Nasdaq and S&P up double-digit percentages this year (with the stodgy Dow higher by 9.2% as well), but all three indexes broke through key psychological levels already in 2026 (25,000, 7,000 and 50,000, respectively). Can they break through another one in the same year?
Considering the benchmark U.S. index dipped below 4,000 in early 2023 – it didn’t climb above 4,000 for good until that March – and that the tech-heavy Nasdaq was barely over 10,000 in late 2022, it shows how powerful this three-and-a-half-year, artificial intelligence-driven bull market has been, at least for the major indexes. Could Dow 60,000 not be far behind? And can the market’s momentum carry the S&P to 8,000 and the Nasdaq to 30,000 by year’s end?
Let’s do the math on how long it might take for all three major indexes to reach those round numbers.
Dow 60,000
Remember when Dow 20,000 was such a huge milestone? That was nine and a half years ago. Now it’s put 50,000 solidly in the rear-view mirror – despite the fact that the Dow has been the slowest-rising of the three major stock market indexes, though it also fell a lot less than the other two during the 2022 bear market.
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All told, the most staid of the three major indexes is up a mere 45.5% since the beginning of 2022 … with ALL of the gains coming since the start of 2024. With the Dow currently at 52,835, it would take about a 13.6% bump for it to reach 60,000. That’s a big leap! But considering the index is up 16% in the last year, it’s not entirely unrealistic. Still, given the slower-moving nature of the index, I’d say 60,000 seems more likely to come in 2027; a more reasonable goal for 2026 is for the Dow to reach 55,000, which would take a mere 4.1% return through the end of the year.
Nasdaq 30,000
This milestone is closer and probably much more achievable than Dow 60,000 since the Nasdaq is a much faster-moving index. The tech-heavy index has added more than 4,600 points in just the last year, a 21.5% gain, thanks mostly to the Mag Seven and AI stocks.
In April, it topped the 25,000 mark for the first time and just kept motoring past 26,000, briefly eclipsing 27,000 before the recent malaise set in. That leaves it “only” 13.3% shy of 30,000 … just below the percentage it’s risen year to date thus far. Here’s where I throw a bit of cold water on the Nasdaq repeating what it’s done through the eight months of the year over the remaining four months: The AI rally has occurred in fits and starts over the last few years. After topping out just below 24,000 in late October 2025, the Nasdaq proceeded to enter a slow-moving, 13% retreat that lasted five whole months, bottoming at the end of March. Its straight-up rebound between the end of March and the end of May was impressive, no doubt about it, but we’re in the midst of the historically worst month of the year for the market, and the index was already running in place.
Therefore, I think Nasdaq 30,000 in 2026 seems like a bit of a stretch, given all the potential geopolitical and economic landmines right now. A more realistic goal is probably in the first half of 2027 – before the Dow reaches 60,000.
S&P 8,000
This could go either way. It’s much closer than the other two indexes; as of this writing, the S&P is just 4% away from 8,000. With the benchmark U.S. index already up 12.1% through the first eight months of the year, that seems like a reasonable year-end goal.
However, having run up 19.5% between the end of March and the end of May, it’s risen only 1.4% in the three-plus months since. Add in the seasonally weak month of September, and I’d expect some choppiness in the coming months, if not another pullback. This one will likely come right down to the wire. Barring anything unforeseen derailing the bull market, I could see the S&P nearing 8,000 as the year enters the final stretch. Given the historically bullish nature of the final two months, I say it gets to 8,000 sometime in November or December.
Of course, here’s the part where I remind you that past returns are not indicative of future performance. Even as the current stock market picture looks mostly bright, there’s always the chance that an unexpected event (like, say, the global pandemic in 2020 or the on-again, off-again Iran war) can knock it back.
But chances are, stock prices will be higher at the end of this year than they are today. Perhaps significantly higher.
Ultimately, big shiny numbers don’t really matter anyway when it comes to indexes. They’re convenient measuring sticks and fun talking points. And with the bull market still in effect, it’s a good time to dream big.
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*This post is periodically updated to reflect market conditions.
