Given the situation in the Middle East, I thought I would share the story of a very interesting dinner I had with Benjamin Netanyahu many years ago.
Now, before I dive into this story, please note I am just about the least political person you can find. So much so that my father-in-law finds my lack of interest in politics maddening. Now with that disclaimer out of the way …
Many years ago, when I was a young trader at a trading firm in Chicago, which was owned and operated by two Jewish men, I was told one afternoon to bring a suit with me the next day, as we would be going out to dinner after the market closed. Bringing a suit for a dinner was a VERY unusual request, but as a young trader, I didn’t ask a lot of questions of my bosses.
After the close that afternoon, I and a couple other traders changed out of our trading coats and into our suits. Along with our boss, we walked a couple streets down to a hotel, where we were then taken to the basement.
Once in the basement, we were taken through very strict security and into a small room with maybe 10 tables set up.
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Shortly after we were seated, several serious security guards walked out flanking Benjamin Netanyahu (I can’t remember if he was Prime Minister then, or what his role was in the Israeli government).
For the next 30 minutes, Netanyahu gave a speech that I will never forget. It was VERY clear that he would do anything to protect Israel and do anything to destroy Israel’s enemies. It was a fiery speech the likes of which I’ve never seen before, and to be honest, I’ve never seen someone so resolute in his cause. It was somewhat chilling.
Now this all happened 15-20 years ago, so I have no clue if Netanyahu is still that extreme level of a war-hawk, and clearly the world has changed since then.
That being said, if he is even half as dedicated to the cause that he spoke of that evening, I have my doubts that Israel will back off from its current attack on Iran until Netanyahu believes the job is done.
Regardless of that speech many years ago, I am FAR from a Middle East expert, and I will simply let the market and option activity guide how we manage this situation in the days/weeks to come.
And on that note, while the speech from years ago would lead me to believe that this war won’t end any time soon, interestingly, option activity on Tuesday would lead me to believe otherwise, as put buying in oil stocks was bearish, including these trades:
Buyer of 30,000 Occidental Petroleum (OXY) August 35 Puts for $0.21 – Stock at 46
Buyer of 6,000 Occidental Petroleum (OXY) September 37.5 Puts for $0.65 – Stock at 46
Buyer of 3,000 Schlumberger (SLB) July 35 Puts for $0.89 – Stock at 36.5
Regardless of the put buying in oil stocks, or my dinner with Netanyahu 15-20 years ago, my plan is to stay nimble with buying and selling options positions in the weeks to come, and simply let the market and smart money tell me how to manage this volatile situation.
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