This week’s GDP number should confirm that we are in a recession. That might be good news for the market.
The worst situation for stocks tends to be a “looming recession”. Stocks tend to fall most as a recession approaches and in the early phases of an actual recession. Stocks also tend to recover before the economy because the market anticipates six to nine months into future. In a typical recession, stocks fall before it hits and recover before it’s over.
If this week’s number confirms that we are in a recession that began at the beginning of the year, the market should be in a more desirable position than if a recession is anticipated later this year or early next year.<.p>
The recent rally in technology is encouraging. I mentioned in last month’s issue that technology stocks had fallen before the overall market and were likely to recover before most other sectors. Since then, portfolio position Qualcomm (QCOM) is up nearly 30%.
This month’s issue highlights another technology stock, Intel (INTC) . The stock is still very cheap with bright prospects in the future. If the market turns south again, the stock should hold up better than the technology sector and be a solid longer-term hold. But if this rally in technology proves to be lasting and QCOM gets called away, we will still have another tech stock that should move higher as well and provide a great call writing opportunity.