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Emerging markets (EEM) continue to gain ground, and just today moved above their 200-day average. Since the S&P 500 index bottomed the day after Christmas, the EEM has risen 14% to reach a seven-month high.

The market is getting a little frothy.

The S&P 500 is up 5.5% in the five weeks since election day, though that’s a historically normal bump following an election. The bull/bear ratio topped 3.9 last week – just shy of the 4.0 “danger zone” that often precedes pullbacks, though it’s not the first time it’s been this high in recent months. And Bitcoin, an asset that thrives in bull markets and typically tops right before a major pullback, just crossed the $100,000 threshold for the first time and has more than doubled in the last three months.

Nokia (NOK) missed on revenue but beat on earnings yesterday, reporting EPS of $0.10/share, which exceeded estimates by over 50%. CEO Pekka Lundmark noted that 2024 will probably remain a weak year for the mobile RAN (radio access network) market, but reiterated expectations that it will likely pick up over the final two quarters. Declining demand for 5G equipment in the U.S./Canada, and a significant slowdown in China (also notably affecting AAPL) are the root cause, but economic data has only recently started to inflect.

Earnings season is over, so there were no companies that reported earnings this past week. However, the next earnings season is just around the corner, starting with Mattel (MAT) on July 23^rd.

There are never any guarantees in the market, but after a very tough 2022, just about all of the top-down evidence (and our indicators are now bullish). We’re not big on labels, but we’re clearly seeing bull market behavior; while leadership usually develops over time (and we’re seeing that here), it’s best to continue stepping into the market as long as things remain in good shape.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we write about some new names go through a variety of topics after that, relaying some thoughts based on various questions we’re receiving.

While automobiles have become more consumer-friendly over the last decade there are still a lot of clunky technologies that drivers deal with.

Sometimes mobile devices pair seamlessly, sometimes they don’t. Sometimes, a car’s infotainment system functions so poorly that drivers are more distracted than they were in the good old days of reaching for cassette tapes under the passenger seat.



Today we’re investing in a company that’s developing a digital ecosystem for connected and autonomous vehicles that will make driving safer and more enjoyable for everyone.



It’s an under-the-radar story still, but not for long. Enjoy!

Current Market Outlook


Coming into last week, the market was at a key juncture, with many indexes testing their key 50-day lines and even the Nasdaq testing its 25-day line, which has contained its post-bottom advance. Happily, those tests were passed, and now we see the Nasdaq at new highs and other indexes getting some daylight above their 50-day lines. Of course, there are still a few issues out there, as the environment remains relatively bifurcated and there are few stocks at great entry points after 15-plus weeks on the upside; sentiment is also getting a touch euphoric. Thus, you should continue to keep your feet on the ground and not pile into stuff sticking straight up in the air, but you should also respect the primary, bullish evidence and stick to a heavily invested stance.

This week’s list has a bit of a secondary feel to it, though all the names have enticing stories and charts. For our Top Pick, we’re going with Ultragenyx (RARE), one of many biotech stocks that’s showing renewed strength.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alarm.com (ALRM)	71.33	64-67	57-58.5
Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding (BHVN)	75.71	68-72	60-62.5
Chegg (CHGG)	74.21	68-71.5	60-62
Cloudflare (NET)	39.32	35-37.5	30.5-32
Nu Skin Enterprises Inc. (NUS)	46.07	42.5-45	37.5-39
Thor Industries (THO)	104.76	98.5-102.5	89-91
Trade Desk (TTD)	468.02	415-435	365-380
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)	87.63	83-88	72-75
Upwork (UPWK)	15.93	13-14	11.5-12
Zscaler (ZS)	126.22	108-113	95-98

Current Market Outlook


News of travel restrictions due to a new strain of the virus over in Europe hit the major indexes early today, but when it comes to our analysis, the reason for the initial selloff is secondary—the setup for an air pocket has been around for a couple of weeks as sentiment was elevated and most stocks and indexes were extended to the upside. Thus, today’s hiccups weren’t totally unexpected, but the damage was limited; at day’s end, the major indexes held up well and remain in intermediate-term uptrends, as do most stocks. Near term, further reverberations are likely, so we still think it best to pick your spots and stocks carefully, but with the major evidence still positive, we are too.

This week’s list has a nice mix of stocks benefiting from different trends (growth, reopening, cyclical, etc.). Our Top Pick is Elastic (ESTC), which has finally, decisively gotten going from a long 20-month IPO base.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alcoa (AA)	22.12	21-22.5	18-18.7
Cardlytics (CDLX)	146.04	135-141	116-119
Coeur Mining (CDE)	9.88	9.5-10.0	8.2-8.5
Elastic (ESTC)	155.91	147-153	129-133
Floor & Décor (FND)	99.10	95-98	85-87
Kodiak Sciences (KOD)	149.51	136-142	117-120
PayPal (PYPL)	237.79	232-238	209-213
Redfin (RDFN)	78.54	72-75.5	60-63
Smartsheet (SMAR)	72.00	70-73	61-63
WESCO International (WCC)	75.16	72-75.5	62-64

Investors remain in a buying mood, as last week’s lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) number added fuel to the recent rally. With inflation still high and a recession likely upon us, another correction may be in the offing. But for now, it’s time to buy. This week, we add a dirt-cheap mid-cap stock from new Stock of the Week contributor Clif Droke, Chief Analyst of our Cabot SX Gold & Metals Advisor. It’s from an industry that never goes out of fashion and is gaining steam from the shifting automotive landscape.

Details inside.

We include comments on earnings from 12 companies, summarize the podcast, include The Catalyst Report and summarize the May edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter.

We don’t yet know what the inflation rate for June will be (report is due July 15), but in the latest Federal Reserve meeting—reading between the lines—it seems economists expect the Fed to lower rates a couple of times during the remainder of the year.

And, just in the last few days, it’s been reported that Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to cut rates three times.

We’ll see.

The law of averages is a powerful thing … especially when it comes to investing.

Stocks and sectors that outperform for an extended period of time often regress to the mean, sometimes violently, when people least expect it. On the flip side, stocks and sectors that have underperformed for months or even years start to get noticed by bargain hunters and play catch-up, even if it’s a bit more gradual.

This is the 13^th bull market in the S&P 500 since 1950. If it ended today, it would tie for the shortest – just over 21 months – with the last bull market, the post-Covid-crash rally that began in March 2020 and tidily peaked at the end of 2021. The average bull market, according to statistics from Ryan Detrick of Carson Investment Research, lasts 65 months.

Does that mean this one can’t up and fizzle right now, taken down by a “carry trade” in Japanese equities, one bad U.S. jobs report, and a whole lot of political (presidential election) and social (war in the Middle East possibly spreading) uncertainty? Of course not. We know a bull market can last only 21 months because we just saw it happen.

Put simply, the market’s snapback from the selloff two weeks ago has been extremely impressive, and while it doesn’t erase all of the yellow flags, it’s certainly a positive sign. Because we didn’t drastically change our stance during the weakness (a little trimming), we’re not doing anything drastic during the rebound — at least not yet. We filled out our position in CrowdStrike last week and are placing Pinterest and Twilio back on Buy.

If all goes well, we could have a new addition or two soon, with our top choices written about in tonight’s issue. But tonight, we’ll stand pat and see how the market acts as earnings season continues.

Sell Fortrea Holdings (FTRE); Buy Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Here’s an update on the stock which rating has been upped to BUY.

The market has been terrific. But uncertainty is growing, particularly with regard to the economy and artificial intelligence.

The government shutdown is over. Tariffs are increasingly less of an issue in the market. But the economy is about to take center stage. There haven’t been the usual economic reports during the shutdown and there is a risk that when they do finally come out the market could be startled.

At the same time, there has been a tug-o-war regarding the AI trade, and Wall Street doesn’t know what to think. AI has driven the market higher for most of the last three years. The future direction of AI and technology will determine the future direction of the overall market.

Fortunately, there are trends and stocks that are not overly dependent on the unpredictable technology sector or the state of the economy. Electricity demand is soaring because of artificial intelligence data centers, electric vehicles, and manufacturing onshoring. The best health care companies will thrive with the enormous tailwind of the aging population megatrend.

Electricity demand will boom, and people will get sick and need medicine regardless of the near-term gyrations of the economy or the market. In uncertain times like this, I like to go with bankable trends.

In this issue, I highlight two of the very best stocks to buy in the areas of utilities and health care.

I hope you had an enjoyable and relaxing summer. Wall Street is back to work this week, and Apple (AAPL) is launching a new product or two next week, so get ready for stocks to start moving again.

In researching potential candidates for this month’s edition of the newsletter, I narrowed down my final list of top choices to the usual 10 stocks. What caught my attention when reviewing the list, however, was how many of them were in the healthcare sector—in particular, the therapeutic arena.

I was gratified by this discovery since I feel that a.) medical stocks are underrepresented in the portfolio, and b.) the sector is at once defensive in nature (always a good thing in my estimation) yet also poised to benefit from ongoing sector rotation.

One of the reasons I love the stock market is that it’s such a battle of the mind. Of course, few pundits or analysts will tell you that--to them, it’s all about number crunching, research, valuation and industry analysis. And all of those are important. But when you get down to it, with money on the line, buying and selling stocks becomes emotional. Really, though, it’s how you handle those emotions that will go a long way toward determining how much money you make and keep in the stock market. The investors that shoot from the hip and react to every wiggle in the market generally do poorly. Those that have a well thought out plan are usually the ones that excel.