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So how can you pick stocks that have a good chance to become winners? Interestingly, the best way is by looking backwards!

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The former leaders are taking the back seat in this changing bull market, and these two undervalued dividend stocks look poised to help pick up the slack.

Before we dive into this week’s covered call idea, I am going to revisit our positions that expired on July expiration a week ago.

I’m changing my recommendations on Dollar Tree (DLTR) to Hold; and on Big Lots (BIG), Kraft Heinz (KHC) and WellCare (WCG) to Buy.

We spend the vast majority of our time focused on U.S. stocks, and rightly so.

After all, although America has just 4% of the world’s population and generates 23% of the global GDP, 72% of worldwide investment capital is spent on U.S. stocks. That’s a stat our global investing expert, Carl Delfeld, relayed to me and my colleague Brad Simmerman on our latest Street Check podcast (click here to listen to the entire conversation). I knew the global investment axis tilted toward the U.S. – just maybe not that much.

Third-quarter earnings season gets underway next week, and expectations are high. Economists are expecting 8% earnings growth among S&P 500 companies, according to data compiled by FactSet. It would be the eighth consecutive quarter of at least 8% profit growth among U.S. companies – perhaps the biggest reason stocks have been on a tear the last two years.

The stock market isn’t done rising. Nevertheless, it’s certainly okay to begin accumulating cash with which to buy low during the next stock market correction. The way I personally handle that is when I sell a stock, I put half of the proceeds into my brokerage account’s money market fund, and I buy shares of stock with the other half. In that manner, I get to participate in the market’s bull run while also “saving for a rainy day”. The best antidote to a stock market correction is having money available to buy low!

Last week’s post-holiday action was suspicious and a bit abnormal; many stocks gave up two or three weeks of gains in just a day or two, and on big volume to boot. That said, very few stocks actually broke down (many fell down to their 50-day moving averages before bouncing), and the major indexes are in good shape, so we remain bullish. But our main thought is that, if last week was just a typical bull market shakeout (possibly some pre-earnings season jitters), most stocks should hold last week’s lows and resume their major uptrends. But in case the selling intensifies, you should have some stops in place for your weaker holdings.



The good news is we’re still seeing many good looking charts, including most of this week’s list. Our Top Pick is Adobe (ADBE), a software giant that’s enjoying new growth from its new focus on the cloud.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)	154.94	81-83	76-77.5
Synaptics (SYNA)	0.00	86.5-88	79-80
SunEdison (SUNE)	0.00	22-23.5	20-21
KLA Corp. (KLAC)	158.80	73-75	69-70
Health Net (HNT)	0.00	42-43	39-40
Barrick Gold (GOLD)	27.20	84-88	81-82
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)	13.78	38-39	35-36
Concho Resources (CXO)	0.00	142-145	135-136
Bitauto Holdings (BITA)	0.00	50-52	43-44
Adobe Inc. (ADBE)	315.23	69-72	66-67

Current Market Outlook


From a top-down perspective (looking at the major indexes and overall trends), last week wasn’t a big deal—most indexes remain in their three-month trading ranges, and all of them are above their longer-term moving averages. But there’s no question that the sellers pulled out the bazooka on many high relative performance stocks, cracking many uptrends in the process. So, combined with the tedious trading during the past few weeks, we’re pulling in our horns a bit more by moving our Market Monitor down two notches to a level 4 out of 10. It’s still best to hold your resilient stocks, especially those that have reacted well to earnings (of which there are many). But you should also limit new buying and be holding plenty of cash until the market firms up.
This week’s list has another batch of earnings winners from last week; if the market can find its footing, many should do well going forward. If you’re looking to nibble on something, our Top Pick is ServiceNow (NOW), an emerging blue chip in the cloud software sector that has a huge runway of growth ahead of it.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Arch Coal (ARCH)	82.27	74-70	63-61
Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS)	0.00	54.5-52.5	50.5-49.5
Ellie Mae (ELLI)	0.00	105-102	98-97
Expedia Group (EXPE)	0.00	130-125	116-115
Mastercard Incorporated (MA)	0.00	107-105	101-100
New Oriental Education (EDU)	113.97	50-48	46-45
ServiceNow (NOW)	341.86	86.5-83.5	79-77.5
Tesaro (TSRO)	0.00	120-116	108-106
US Silica Holdings, Inc. (SLCA)	0.00	46-44	41-40
Western Digital Corporation (WDC)	0.00	59-56.5	52-51

Current Market Outlook


There’s no shortage of things to worry about today, with everything from the Presidential election to Syria to Russia to interest rates seemingly hanging in the balance. And as all good investors know, bull markets climb a wall of worry! So it’s no surprise that the market continues to lean bullish. Leading the group in the U.S. are small-cap stocks (while the major indexes lag), and leading the way internationally are the Chinese stocks, a couple of which appear in this issue—and not for the first time.

The Chinese stocks, however, may be due for a correction, so our Top Pick is Yelp (YELP), which combines a great growth story with a chart that’s in a good buying range.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)	980.83	191-185	175-174
NetEase, Inc. (NTES)	0.00	255-245	235-234
Nintendo Co., Ltd. (NTDOY)	0.00	34-32	30-29
Parsley Energy (PE)	0.00	35.5-34	32-31
TD Ameritrade (AMTD)	0.00	35.5-35	32.5-32
Twilio (TWLO)	183.39	60-55	53-50
US Silica Holdings, Inc. (SLCA)	0.00	47-44	40-37.5
Weibo (WB)	98.16	53-49	46-45
Williams Companies (WMB)	0.00	31-29	27.5-27
Yelp (YELP)	41.30	41-39	37-36

Current Market Outlook


The market has made a little upside push during the past week or two, but net-net, most indexes are up just a smidgen during the past seven weeks. That sideways trading has contained most stocks and sectors, too, as they chop around with a slight upward bias. Even so, the intermediate- and longer-term trends are up, so the odds continue to favor the next major move being up. And we’re encouraged by both the number of positive earnings reactions we’ve seen, as well as the action of those stocks after they gap up—most have traded constructively post-earnings with no selling pressures coming in even after they ramp. All told, we’re still mostly positive, but we’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 7 (out of 10) until we see more than just the Nasdaq decisively push out of their recent trading ranges.

This week’s list has another batch of strong stocks, including many that have recently reacted well to earnings. Our Top Pick is a tough call, but we’ll go with Ally Financial (ALLY), which just exploded higher on earnings after years in the market’s doghouse. It looks to be just starting its run.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Ally Financial (ALLY)	30.44	21.5-23	20-21
Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)	17.24	14-15	12.5-13
Essent Group (ESNT)	0.00	34-36	31.5-32.5
Exelixis (EXEL)	27.35	18.5-19.5	17-17.5
Olin Corp. (OLN)	0.00	28.5-30	26-27
Symantec Corporation (SYMC)	0.00	26.5-28	25-25.5
Teradyne (TER)	82.83	27-28.5	25-26
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)	818.87	247-256	225-229
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI)	0.00	82-86	76-78
Yandex (YNDX)	0.00	22-23	20-21

Current Market Outlook


Nothing much changed with the market’s evidence last week: The trends of the major indexes and most leading stocks remain strongly up, and there’s been very little in the way of intermediate-term abnormal selling action out there. On the other hand, many indexes have yet to hit new post-virus highs, fewer stocks are hitting new highs and the leading big-cap indexes are extended to the upside. As always, we put most of our emphasis on the primary evidence, which is why we remain mostly bullish; in fact, we’re nudging our Market Monitor up to a level 7 this week. But, while we still favor holding your strong, resilient performers, we also think it’s best to be choosy on the buy side, looking for names that have shown some recent power on earnings or have been running for a few months but have dipped to support.

Happily, this week’s list features many of names that have one of those two chart characteristics. Our Top Pick is Redfin (RDFN), which has been mostly a bust since coming public two years ago but showed overwhelming buying after earnings last week. As with most names, try to enter on some weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Acceleron Pharma (XLRN)	75.11	88-92	78-80
Alteryx (AYX)	132.78	149-155	135-138
Amazon.com (AMZN)	2.00	2100-2150	1940-1970
Appian (APPN)	46.48	56-59	50-52
Envestnet (ENV)	77.12	81-84	74.5-76
Invitae (NVTA)	32.06	25-27	21.5-23
iRhythm Technologies (IRTC)	51.15	87-90	78-80
Redfin (RDFN)	40.40	28.5-30.5	24.5-25.5
Sunrun (RUN)	38.40	19.8-20.8	17.8-18.4
Survey Monkey (SVMK)	19.97	20.7-21.4	18.3-18.7

It seems like nearly every October gives the market something to worry about, and this year it’s (again) the politicians in Washington, D.C.—statements and rumors from various leaders have been pushing and pulling the market in recent days, and there’s no reason to expect anything less in the near-term. That said, despite day-to-day (sometimes hour-to-hour) volatility, the market’s overall stance hasn’t changed much; the indexes are in good-not-great shape, but most leading stocks have taken it all in stride. Thus, we’re sticking with our lean bullish advice, and think buying during weakness can pay off.

This week’s list is encouraging in that many names are new to Top Ten; while the market hits some potholes, money is still finding a home in more and more stocks. Our favorite of the week is U.S. Silica (SLCA), another play on the rebounding oil sector; we like its reasonable valuation, recent breakout and big increase in sponsorship in recent quarters.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
YY Inc. (YY)	0.00	46-48	43-44
Yelp (YELP)	41.30	67-70	59-61
Synaptics (SYNA)	0.00	45-47	39-40
Sanchez Energy (SN)	0.00	26-28	24.5-25
US Silica Holdings, Inc. (SLCA)	0.00	27-29	24-24.5
Sina Corp. (SINA)	0.00	86-88	78-80
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)	0.00	17.5-19	15-16
Centene (CNC)	0.00	62-64	58-59
Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI)	0.00	67-69	60-61
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)	0.00	112-116	106-107