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The market has been ripping higher with broader participation from sectors that weren’t doing much a couple months ago. That’s the good news. And it’s showing up in the charts with the Small Cap Index at multi-month highs (but well below all-time highs). IPOs are starting to find their legs too. The not-so-good news is that the market is looking a little stretched, which could mean a pause or pullback is coming sooner rather than later. But, the market has a way of doing the unpredictable and with so many investors thinking it’s time for break we could see just the opposite. This month we try to play both sides of the ball by spreading things around in different sectors and across market caps. There’s some IPOs, some high growth software and MedTech ideas, and another growth + value name. They all have their own qualities and stand out to me for different reasons right now.

Any surprising event of substance can affect the stock market, even if it’s only for one day. The biggest reason that non-financial events, such as the Zika virus, Mrs. Clinton’s health, Y2K and the Brexit vote impact U.S. stock markets is because U.S. news media latch onto these topics and cover them incessantly, giving the general public the impression that these pieces of news are vitally important.

In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Alcoa (AA), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), Janus Henderson Group (JHG), Paramount Global (PARA), Starbucks (SBUX) and Teladoc Health (TDOC).


This month’s catalyst report features a mixed bag of attractive turnaround candidates in several industries, including software, healthcare, luxury retail and chemicals.

Tesla (TSLA) has had a rough start to the year. Entering Wednesday, TSLA shares were down nearly 42% year to date thanks to a bitter cocktail of sagging revenues, narrowing margins, and increased competition, especially in China. At the start of this week, TSLA shares had dipped to 142, a 52-week low, and were trading at their cheapest valuation on a price-to-earnings basis since last May and on a price-to-book-value basis since 2019.

It was a rare rough December for stocks.

Sure, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were down just over 2%, propped up as usual by enduring strength in the Magnificent Seven. But the losses were far greater in almost every other corner of the market, with 10 of the 11 major sectors declining, small caps tumbling nearly 8%, value stocks off by more than 6%, and energy and materials stocks retreating by double digits.

Value stocks are starting to gain traction.

No, they’re still not outperforming growth stocks. But the 10.5% year-to-date gain in the Vanguard Value Index Fund (VTV) puts it on track for its best year since 2021, and potentially its third-best year in the last decade. That’s progress. And much of the progress has come this month, as the previously thin bull market rally has spread to the myriad unloved non-tech sectors. Value stocks are up more than 3% this month, outperforming growth stocks (as measured by the QQQ ETF), which are flat in July.

You should be taking taxes into account when investing, and the proper time to do that is BEFORE you buy a stock ... i.e., when you’re deciding how many shares and how much money to invest in the first place. Consider the taxes before you invest--if you do, you’ll have a truer grasp of your portfolio.

The American economy is in a period of great transition, but just like the frog in the pot of water that’s being slowly heated, many people don’t appreciate the magnitude of the coming changes yet. There are tremendous investment opportunities out there for investors who are willing to embrace the future. This week, General Motors (NYSE: GM) stock hit a 25-year low. In the same week, Clean Harbors (Nasdaq: CLHB), hit an all-time high.

Even though the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs this week, news flow felt a little more negative, and the small-cap indices all moved slightly lower.

Our emerging markets timer strengthened this week as the EEM climbed over 44 today, just short of its high for the year.

Understanding taxes can be a struggle, so let’s break down recent changes to the tax code and some penalties to avoid.

I hope you had a great holiday season thus far, and I hope you have an even better New Year.

When the market turns back up, having the shopping list ready will save a lot of research time, and money can be quickly directed into those names that have convincing uptrends. Here are five mid- and small-cap software stocks that are on my radar as potential buys for investors. With forecasts suggesting cloud software will drive 50% of all software investment through 2019 (equal to average annual growth of 18.3%), these stocks deserve a spot on any growth investor’s wish list.

Nio (NIO) was up 22% this week though markets face headwinds of inflation and increasingly loose talk of recession by many including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. With regret, we let go of Sea (SE) but add another favorite selling at a sharp discount to its high—and in the middle of the unstoppable trend of cybersecurity.

This month we are dialing up the risk a little with a small software company that has a potentially disruptive platform that streamlines back-office processes for small and mid-sized businesses.

There are risks. The economy isn’t super strong, and this is a competitive market. But this company has a truly innovative set of solutions, is in one of the market’s most beat-up sectors and has new products and a low-cost customer acquisition strategy.

It’s also profitable and generates positive free cash flow, two attributes that make it an attractive acquisition target.

Enjoy!

All three major U.S. indexes were up around 2% yesterday as the Bank of England stepped in to stabilize the pound, but the recovery looks fragile as sentiment remains mixed at best in the short term. Explorer stocks drifted lower this past week and we remain defensive looking for asymmetric plays where the upside potential exceeds downside risk.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the March 2021 issue.

As value investors, we follow the goings-on at Berkshire Hathaway, and comment briefly on its earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual shareholder letter, released this past Saturday. Your chief analyst owns some Berkshire shares (the lower-priced Class B shares), but isn’t a full-fledged Berkshire “groupie.”



We also discuss our new Buy recommendation – British insurance company Aviva, Plc (AVVIY). This company is emerging from a period of global sprawl and weak leadership, led by a new and impressive CEO.



Currently-recommended Dow (DOW) is a strong beneficiary of the global economic re-opening, with higher earnings likely ahead, so we are raising our price target to reflect this still-undervalued stock’s potential.



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.



Thanks!

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX), the world’s second largest producer of copper and a major producer of gold and molybdenum. The company recently diversified by acquiring two oil and gas producers, Plains Exploration & Production and McMoRan Exploration. Freeport’s stock has been weak over the last couple of years as the...

This month’s candidate is another software stock—but not a high flyer. Rather, this company is still scooting just below the radar, and trades at a big discount to most of its peers. When you value it based on growth, it’s downright cheap—but valuation isn’t why we’re buying it.

January is living up to its volatile reputation but there’s no doubt it’s begun to improve—the intermediate-term trend, which was negative for most everything out there, is back to neutral; the broad market is showing some rapid, intriguing improvement; and individual stocks have improved their standing, with some popping to new highs. To be clear, this isn’t a buying panic, but after a few weeks of tedious action that has brought sentiment down, we’re OK with gradually extending your line while remaining nimble. We’ll up our Market Monitor to a level 7 today.

This week’s list is a mixed bag, with everything from growth to turnarounds to commodity names. Our Top Pick looks like one of the leaders of a new group move after being in the doghouse for a couple of years. Try to get in on dips.