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If you are a commodities or small-cap investor, you’d probably be heavily invested right now -- but, for growth stocks, the environment remains challenging, with lots of ups and downs but no real progress, and with most growth funds (including the Nasdaq) under performing even defensive stocks. The odds favor the next major move being up, but until that starts, we’re staying relatively close to shore and waiting for more stocks to get going, possibly during earnings season.

So far, so good in September, as there’s no market correction in sight. The increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut later this month is helping to counteract the negative effects of seasonality during the traditional “spooky season.” Let’s hope the Fed doesn’t disappoint when they convene next week. In the meantime, the investing waters are warm, so let’s take a bigger swing this week by adding one of the world’s greatest and highest-profile growth companies to our portfolio. It’s a recent recommendation from Carl Delfeld to his Cabot Explorer audience. And it’s a former market darling that, after a rough couple years, is starting to gain traction with investors again.

Details inside.

Jerome Powell was an unlikely hero to investors last week, reviving an increasingly sluggish market with his surprisingly dovish words from Jackson Hole last Friday. So stocks remain near record highs, and volatility is low, as the prospect of the Fed finally slashing interest rates again starting next month becomes increasingly realistic. Lower interest rates are particularly enticing for housing stocks, a beaten-down sector in the face of sky-high mortgage rates in recent years. So today, we add a high-profile homebuilder that’s starting to gather momentum – enough to catch the attention of Cabot Top Ten Trader Chief Analyst Mike Cintolo.

Details inside.

We relate a quote from the movie “Anchorman” to the financial markets and provide updates on our recommended companies.

Stocks produced one of their strongest quarters in living memory, with the S&P 500 returning 20.5% in the period ending June 30. The index has nearly fully regained its previously-lost value, declining only 6% for the first half of the year. Investors frequently ask how the S&P 500 can be down only modestly given the Depression-like broad economic statistics.

Today’s note includes earnings updates, ratings changes, the podcast and the Catalyst Report.

Earnings update from a company that recently reported and comments on other recommended stocks. And, an on-the-ground view of globalization.

Years ago, on a visit to New York City, I was invited to participate in a wine tasting seminar. My knowledge of wine was rudimentary at best when I attended, and so it remains today.

With this month’s new addition, I decided to go in a different direction then we have with previous recommendations. Instead of featuring another rapid-growth medical device or software stock, I’ve selected a consumer defensive stock in a very specialized industry and with a more modest growth profile. It’s the perfect summertime stock for a period in which many growth stocks are acting a little schizophrenic—especially for those investors who like getting out of the house for a bite to eat and a good beer or glass of wine.

Welcome to our first annual TOP PICKS issue! For this month, I asked the Cabot analysts to give me a couple of their top picks for 2023. I think you will find they have produced a nice selection of companies in diverse sectors. And just as I did in my previous newsletter, Wall Street’s Best Stocks, I’ll keep track of their picks and let you know how they fare.

Stocks continued to retreat last week, ensuring a down February after a very promising January. Still, the latest pullback has been fairly modest, with the 200-day moving average now acting as a floor instead of a ceiling, as it did for most of 2022. With the market in a state of flux, we’re adding another dividend stock today – a household name that used to be part of the Stock of the Week portfolio before we sold it late last summer. That looks like a mistake, as the stock has risen 11% since, and seems to be gathering more steam of late. It’s a longtime recommendation of Cabot Dividend Investor Chief Analyst Tom Hutchinson.

Stocks continue to chug along in the same range they’ve largely been in since the end of March. We’ll see if this week’s inflation reports (CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday) move the needle in either direction. In the meantime, one sector that is finally showing signs of life after two years of being beaten to a pulp is cannabis. And so today, we add one of the top cannabis stocks recommended by Cabot Cannabis Investor Chief Analyst Michael Brush. It’s a familiar name to even intermediate-term Stock of the Week readers – and it was up 25% last week!

Details inside.

The financial media, observers and traders are focused almost exclusively on the path of the Fed’s interest rate tightening policy. How much will they raise rates at the next meeting? How about the meeting after that? Then what? What is the terminal rate (the highest rate of the cycle)? When will the Fed start reducing rates?

For many of your value stocks on the recommended list, the New Year’s rebound continues. Most of these shares were heavily over-sold late last year. Almost given up for dead, shares of Organon (OGN) have surged 38% since hitting an all-time low in mid-October. Similarly, shares of Barrick Gold (GOLD) are up over 43% since their nadir in November.

In the January issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, we take a look at updates within our portfolio then dive into five stocks from markets ranging from defense to cybersecurity to the blooming IT infrastructure market.

As always, there’s something for everybody!

We are likely in a recession. Meanwhile, inflation continues to rage on. That means stocks will have to navigate an environment of both recession and inflation, at least for the rest of the year.
That’s tricky because few companies perform well with both. Commodity-based companies thrive in inflation but struggle in recession. Many defensive companies that shine in recession don’t like inflation.


In this month’s issue, I highlight a stock in one of the rare sectors that can successfully navigate both recession and rising prices at the same time – midstream energy. Strong operational performance, a low valuation, and a high and safe yield are perfect for the current situation.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Value Investor. We hope you enjoy reading the September 2023 issue.

We do a deep-dive into what ails Citigroup (C) shares and remain steadfast in our conviction.

Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.

I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Value Investor. We hope you enjoy reading the July 2023 issue.

Almost like an annual rite of passage, major banks reported their Federal Reserve stress test results last week. All major banks passed, in that their capital levels were in excess of the minimum requirements under the Doomsday Scenario conditions outlined in the test assumptions. We’re not the biggest fans of these tests, for reasons outlined in our monthly letter.

Citigroup remains a riskier bank relative to other majors, but also has a higher return-potential share valuation, plus a 4.5% dividend yield to reward patient investors.

Longer-term subscribers are no doubt familiar with our immense patience with beleaguered discount retailer Big Lots (BIG). Its shares initially sagged due to bloated inventory, similar to other more highly regarded retailers like Target and Walmart, leading to our initial recommendation. We had expected that its earnings would be weakened as it offloaded its excess goods at sizeable discounts, but also that it would ultimately work its way out of its difficult but by no means impossible situation. At the time, Big Lots had a cash-heavy, nearly debt-free balance sheet, was generating positive free cash flow and traded at a depressed 3x EV/EBITDA multiple. What could go wrong?