Halfway through January and one of the big stories of the year is the continued outperformance of small-cap stocks. Along with the strength in the equal-weight S&P 500 (the Invesco S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) is an easy option to track this), this is part of the “market is broadening out” theme that you’ve likely been hearing about.
As I stated several times in the waning months of last year, small caps benefit from (1) an early cycle backdrop, (2) stabilizing earnings revisions, (3) positive operating leverage, and (4) lower rates. These conditions are materializing right now. Analysts expect small-cap earnings to grow 15% in 2026, only slightly ahead of the 14.8% expected for large caps but a massive improvement from the small-cap earnings contractions in 2023 and 2024, and above the expected 2025 earnings growth rate of 13.4%. By the way, mid‑cap earnings are expected to grow by 19.3% in 2026. This is helping to draw more attention to the small and mid-cap (SMID) asset class, which is actually what a lot of small-cap ETFs and mutual funds really have exposure to.