Search

There were no earnings this past week, but earnings season is just around the corner. The beleaguered Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), without a permanent CEO, kicks off our season with its Thursday, October 12 report, followed the next day by Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C).

In today’s note, we discuss the recent earnings reports from Janus Henderson Group (JHG) and Polaris (PII). Our note also includes the monthly Catalyst Report and a summary of the February edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday.

A theme that has emerged in the last couple of weeks is rotation out of this summer’s high-flyers and into some of the market’s biggest laggards of recent months. While this is encouraging from our perspective, especially since it bodes well for some of the turnarounds in our portfolio, it’s also a reason for embracing a measure of caution, as it shows that the broad market still isn’t firing on all cylinders.

With jobs numbers (and revisions) looking pretty iffy and inflation numbers looking as expected (CPI, today), if not slightly better (PPI, yesterday), the chances of the Fed cutting rates next Wednesday are essentially a lock.

In fact, the only reason the probability of a 25bps cut is only 89% is because the chance of a 50bps cut is 11%!

The market likes this news very much. And so do small caps.

The 5G technology revolution is almost here. And that means it’s time to add these three wireless stocks to your portfolio.

These ten companies maintain strong balance sheets with low debt and lots of cash.

One of the stocks recommended in the latest issue of Cabot Green Investor (which just came out last week) is in the business of developing technology that generates electricity from the movement of ocean waves, one of the most plentiful sources of energy on the planet.

First and foremost, this is our last issue of 2024—next Monday is one of our two weeks off all year—so we want to wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a healthy and prosperous New Year. We’ll be back at it with a fresh Top Ten issue on January 6.

As for the market, things finished up with a nice rally last Friday, but that doesn’t undo the action of the prior couple of weeks as a whole, which saw many leaders take hits and many major indexes crack their intermediate-term uptrends. To be clear, we remain flexible, and if the buyers pounce on the recent weakness for a few days, we think there will be lots of “resumption” patterns among individual stocks. Still, given the near- and intermediate-term selling we’ve seen, we want to see buyers show up in a meaningful way first before putting a bunch of money back to work. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 5.

This week’s list is once again very growth-y, which we do find encouraging. Our Top Pick showed exceptional power in November and has now rested for three weeks, offering up a solid entry point, though we advise starting small given the environment.

Cannabis stocks are now trading like the group is no longer a viable sector.

I do not believe that is the case. True, companies continue to face pressure from price wars and unbridled issuance of permits for new stores in New Jersey and elsewhere.

But ultimately, the fate of cannabis businesses lies in the hands of politicians.

This technique can work wonders if you are bold and are willing to go against traditional investing systems.

In the May Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, we spread things around, taking a look at a rising MedTech star, a possible breakout biotech stock, a boring discount retailer, an oil and gas income play and a familiar apparel manufacturer.
Enjoy!

This week’s Cabot Growth Investor issue is two days early, because the rest of the week is filled by the Cabot Wealth Summit, which brings all our analysts to Salem to meet subscribers face-to-face and fix all the world’s problems—or at least help them become better investors.

The market remains news driven, with some soothing U.S.-China trade news sending the major indexes back up. Even so, the intermediate-term trend remains unsupportive, so we’re still playing some defense—we’ve pruned our worst performers and losers, but are also holding our resilient performers. From here, we’re just taking it day to day, willing to buy some fresh leadership if the bulls retake control, but content to sit tight with some cash until that happens.
In tonight’s letter, we write a bit about the type of stocks we’re honing in on for the next sustained advance (early stage), touch on the bottom dropping out of investor sentiment (good for the longer-term outlook) and dive into all our stocks and plenty of new ideas as well.

The major indexes remain in uptrends, there’s no doubt about that. And, despite some still-soggy action among many growth stocks, most of the broad market is trending higher, too. But not all uptrends are equal, and right now, we don’t see much power out there. That’s not a bad thing, per se, but it’s more of a two-steps-forward, one-step-back kind of advance, with lots of rotation still going on week to week. By all means, continue to do some buying in names you like, but we also advise holding some cash and picking your spots.

This week’s list has a slightly steadier feel to it than prior weeks, as money flows toward companies with dependable growth. There are also a few stocks that have popped on earnings and tightened up of late, including SanDisk (SNDK), which is our top pick. Shares are at a good risk-reward point here.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Waddell & Reed (WDR)	0.00	63-65	56-57
SanDisk Corp. (SNDK)	0.00	67-70	64-65
Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP)	0.00	86-88	74-75
US Silica Holdings, Inc. (SLCA)	0.00	31-33	29.5-30
Mohawk Industries (MHK)	0.00	138-143	129-130
Southwest Airlines (LUV)	0.00	17.5-18.5	15-16
Baker Hughes (BHI)	0.00	56.5-58.5	53-53.5
HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY)	0.00	35-37	31-32
Actavis (ACT)	0.00	160-163	156-157
ACI Worldwide (ACIW)	0.00	60-61	58-59

Current Market Outlook


We’re eight and a half months into 2014, and it finally looked as if the choppy (four weeks up, four weeks down, etc.) type of environment had been left behind. But not yet! Just during the past couple of trading days, we’ve seen the market churn near its highs and the sellers come out of the woodwork. We can’t conclude at this point that the market is set to sink for a few weeks; the evidence doesn’t support that. But given that sustained trends have been hard to come by, we also continue to think holding some cash on the sideline and booking partial profits makes sense. We’ll keep our Market Monitor in a “lean bullish” position, but we’ll be watching the upcoming action closely. If the uptrend is OK, buyers should show up soon.

This week’s list has a broader array of stocks and sectors on it, with a few stable stories. Still, we’re going with a true growth stock as our Top Pick—Palo Alto Networks’ (PANW) quarterly report was a barnburner and the stock soared to new highs on record volume. And we think its pullback since looks normal.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
WhiteWave Foods (WWAV)	0.00	34.5-36.5	32-33
United Therapeutics (UTHR)	0.00	118-123	105-107
TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT)	0.00	19-20	17-18
Gentherm (THRM)	0.00	47-49.5	44-45
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	236.92	94-98	86-88
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST)	0.00	86-89	78-80
Southwest Airlines (LUV)	0.00	32-33	29-30
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ)	0.00	154-162	145-148
Greenbrier (GBX)	57.73	67-70	63-64
Foot Locker (FL)	0.00	55-57	52-53

The evidence for the overall market continues to improve; over the past week, two blastoff indicators have turned green, which should bode well when looking out over the next few months. Growth stocks, however, remain in a consolidation phase following some huge runs, with many (not all) stocks sagging back during the past week or two. Overall, though, the pullbacks have been normal, so we remain optimistic, though we’re still stepping slowly and looking for decent entry points.

In tonight’s issue, we’re doing a touch more buying, filling out a position in one of our stocks, following the addition of a full position last week. That will leave us with around 18% in cash.

In the October Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we continue to snap up shares of high-growth software stocks, while adding a couple of consistent growers in the landscaping and waste management arenas to round out our market exposure.

Enjoy!

Current Market Outlook


The market’s meltdown today cracked the intermediate-term uptrend that got going back in January, with all major indexes (and many leading stocks) closing well below their 50-day lines today. Big picture, we still see this as a bull market, so we’re still OK holding most of your shares in your strong, profitable stocks; encouragingly, despite taking on water, many stocks are still hanging in there. That said, you also shouldn’t be complacent—after four months with no meaningful pullbacks, it’s likely (not for sure, but likely) the market needs more than six trading days to consolidate the January-April advance. In a nutshell, you should keep tight stops in place on losers and laggards, give your profitable names a bit more rope and, on the buy side, be very selective and/or keep positions small. We’re moving our Market Monitor down to a level 5.

Interestingly, this week’s list is very heavy on growth-y names despite the market’s plunge. Our Top Pick is Match.com (MTCH), which has a great long-term story, and the stock has re-emerged after earnings.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Avalara (AVLR)	102.00	64.5-67.5	56-58
HubSpot (HUBS)	582.89	170-175	157-160
Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD)	146.30	107-111	97-100
Match (MTCH)	0.00	66-69	58-60
PayPal (PYPL)	147.00	105-107.5	98-100
Roku, Inc. (ROKU)	150.46	74.5-77.5	64.5-66
Tandem Diabetes (TNDM)	74.77	60-63	54-55.5
Teradyne (TER)	82.83	44.5-46.5	42-43
TopBuild (BLD)	111.00	77.5-81	70-72
Woodward (WWD)	111.91	105-108	95-97