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Twenty-three of our portfolio companies reported June quarter results. Among those companies, 14 reported EPS that exceeded analysts’ consensus estimates; seven of which exceeded all analysts’ estimates.

Something called DeepSeek out of China helped bring the rally in U.S. stocks to a screeching halt to start the week. Artificial intelligence stocks, in particular, are taking it on the chin, as it appears the Chinese firm may have found a cheaper, just-as-advanced alternative that’s rattling the likes of even Nvidia (NVDA). Chances are, the selling is overdone. But it’s a good time to look for overseas alternatives. And today, we add a Dutch company that plays an essential role in global travel – and one that’s taking advantage of the many missteps of its larger U.S. rival. It’s a stock that was first recommended by Carl Delfeld in Cabot Explorer.

Details inside.

Earlier this week, we moved shares of a consumer staples company from Buy to Sell. We comment on earnings from two recommended stocks and comment on other recommended names. Some thoughts on the ESG trend.

When I’m out and about in the world, talking to investors, I’ve noticed that when I mention my goal of minimizing the risk associated with stock investing, people’s eyes glaze over. I’ve come to realize that people generally believe eliminating risk actually means eliminating reward. Holy moly, NO!

The International Energy Agency issued a report earlier this month predicting that a “golden age of gas” could be coming.

Even though the market rebounded heroically in October, that August correction was just too strong to overcome. Cabot’s growth advisories protected subscribers by moving heavily into cash when things were stormy, but we didn’t have the kind of steady tailwind from the market that produces bushels of big performers. Today I would like to review three top performers of 2015.

I saw a quotation that said, “If you don’t know who you are, the market is an expensive place to find out.”

We think the odds favor the market has found a short-term low (last Monday) amid lots of panic selling, and it’s probably starting to repair the damage from the prior few weeks … but that process is likely to take some time, as the market deals with the tariff and economic uncertainty and as new potential leaders try to round out launching pads. Of course, how the market acts from here will be key, so we’re remaining flexible, but we always advise going with what’s in front of us, and right now the odds favor more patience will likely be needed before a sustained advance can develop. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 3.

As the correction has gone on, it’s become easier to spot the names that are resisting the decline. Our Top Pick is a newer name to most and it’s shown accelerating accumulation the past three weeks.

The management team at Enovix (ENVX) has been busy.


Late last week, the company announced a $60 million share buyback program. Then yesterday, the company released preliminary Q2 results that came in slightly better than management guidance.

The market has been fantastic. But it was driven higher by technology. Now, technology is rolling over. Will the market roll over too, or will the neglected sectors pick up the slack?

Well, the results are in for the first half of the year. And they’re very good. The S&P 500 soared an impressive 14.5% in the first six months of 2024. That’s a 29% annual pace. And it follows a 22% market return in 2023.

But I believe it is unlikely that the S&P will finish the year up 29%. That would be an epic year, but there are still a lot of challenges, like interest rates near the highest level in two decades. That means market returns must at least flatten out somewhat going forward. It’s also true that the technology rally has petered out in the last few weeks.

As earnings season gets into gear we have a few updates on positions that have reported this week. Stepping back and looking holistically at our portfolio, which currently has 34 positions, we’re going to view earnings season as an opportunity to prune our portfolio a little. Essentially, we want to use the current market’s strength to our advantage to lock in some profits, exit stories that aren’t super-inspiring at the moment, and focus on the highest potential names.

Based on past performance, airline stocks deserve their reputation as terrible investments. All three of the major full-service carriers operating today–American Airlines Group (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Continental Holdings (UAL)–have declared bankruptcy at least once. However, investors shouldn’t overlook fundamental changes in the airline industry that have transformed...

Current Market Outlook


The major indexes didn’t do much last week, as big investors seemed content to wait for the deluge of earnings report in the days ahead to hit the wires. We continue to think the majority of the evidence is positive (trends are up, most leading stocks are in good shape), which is why we’re still bullish; the odds continue to favor higher prices down the road. But, clearly, it’s not 1999 out there—relatively few stocks are hitting new highs and we’ve seen a lack of upside follow-through on the names that did reach virgin turf. Thus, be sure to pick your spots and to have a plan as earnings season ramps up—our guess is that the market’s reaction to the reports of leading stocks will determine whether a new leg up is underway or whether the market has more consolidating to do.

This week’s list is again heavy on growth stocks, though a couple of turnarounds make the list, too. Our Top Pick is one of the first earnings winners of the season—V.F. Corporation (VFC) is a steady-eddy type of company that just lifted from a six-month consolidation after topping estimates.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Green Dot (GDOT)	85.11	79-82	72-74
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)	25.35	23.5-25	21-22
Madison Square Garden (MSG)	298.38	309-319	280-287
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)	120.93	125-135	109-115
SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE)	98.49	87-90	80-82
Square, Inc. (SQ)	91.04	67-70	59-61
Trex Company (TREX)	117.56	65-67	60-61
TripAdvisor (TRIP)	55.14	57.5-60	52-54
VF Corp. (VFC)	92.46	89-92	83-84.5
Zogenix (ZGNX)	46.50	55-58	48-50

The market had a great, bullish setup a couple of weeks ago, but that rally has fallen flat, which is a red flag. Our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicator remain negative, and we’re now seeing the selling spread even to resilient growth stocks.

After five consecutive up months for the market, April has been a bummer. Is this just an overdue end to the recent rally or something worse?

The S&P 500 is down 3.6% so far in April. But the more interest rate-sensitive sectors have faired far worse. Sure, the rally was long in the tooth anyway. But the narrative has also changed for the worse.

Just when things were getting seriously ugly, the market started having a great week.

Interest rate disappointment is being replaced by earnings anticipation. The new earnings season came in the nick of time. After five straight up months, the S&P was having a terrible April. Last week was the worst week of the year so far and the index has fallen over 5% from the recent high.